Stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises: State dependence and the financial crisis

This paper examines the response of US stock returns to Federal Funds rate (FFR) surprises between 1989 and 2012, focusing on the impact of the recent financial crisis. We find that outside the crisis period, stock prices increased as a response to unexpected FFR cuts. State dependence is identified with stocks exhibiting larger increases when interest rate easing coincided with recessions, bear markets, and tightening credit conditions. However, an important structural shift occurred during the crisis, changing the stocks’ response to FFR shocks and the nature of state dependence. Throughout the crisis period, stocks did not react positively to unexpected FFR cuts, which were interpreted as signals of worsening future economic conditions. This triggered a rebalancing of investment portfolios away from falling equities and towards safe-haven assets. Our results highlight the severity of the crisis and the ineffectiveness of conventional monetary policy close to the zero lower bound.     

On the Use of the Moving Average Trading Rule to Test for Weak Form Efficiency in Capital Markets

The examination for the possible existence of predictive power in the moving average trading rule has been used extensively to test the hypothesis of weak form market efficiency in capital markets. This work focuses mainly on the study of the variation of the moving average (MA) trading rule performance as a function of the length of the longer MA. Empirical analysis of daily data from NYSE and the Athens Stock Exchange reveal high variability of the performance of the MA trading rule as a function of the MA length and on some occasions the series of successive trading rule total returns is non‐stationary. These findings have direct implications in weak form market efficiency testing. Indeed, given this high variability of the performance of the MA trading rule, by just finding out that trading rules with some specific combinations of MA lengths can or cannot beat the market, as is the case in most of the published work thus far, is not enough evidence for or against the existence of weak form market efficiency. Results also show that on average in about three out of four cases trading rule signals are false, a fact that leaves a lot of space for improved trading rule performance if trading rule signals are combined with other information (e.g. filters, or volume of trade). Finally, some evidence of enhanced trading rule performance for the shorter MA lengths was found. This enhanced performance is partly attributed to the higher probability that a trading rule signal is not a whipsaw, as well as to the larger number of days out‐of‐the‐market which are associated with shorter MA lengths.     

Survival of commodity trading advisors: 1990–2003

This article investigates the mortality of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) over the 1990–2003 period, a longer horizon than any encompassed in the literature. A detailed survival analysis over the full range of CTA classifications is provided, and it is found that the median lifetime of CTAs in this sample is different than previously documented. Through the implementation of nonparametric, parametric, and semiparametric statistical techniques, it is emphasized that CTA survivorship is heavily contingent on the strategy followed by the fund. Furthermore, a significant positive size effect on survival is shown, whereas poor returns, and to a lesser extent, high‐risk exposure, appear to hasten mortality. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:795–815, 2005     

The Pricing of Equity Carve-Outs

This article examines the pricing of stock for 251 equity carve‐outs during the 1986–1995 period. We document a mean initial‐day return of 5.83% and a mean one‐week return of 5.43%. Among carve‐outs, the initial underpricing is lower for issues represented by high prestige investment bankers and those that have a lower offer price. In comparison with 251 initial public offering (IPO) firms matched by size and book‐to‐market ratio of equity, carveouts exhibit significantly lower initial‐day returns, but their buy‐and‐hold returns for sixmonth and one‐year periods are not significantly different from IPOs. The IPO firms have a three‐year return of 28.82% which is significantly higher than the 21.07% return for the carve‐out firms.     

INFLATION,INVESTMENT, AND DEBT

In this paper the effect of inflation on firms' investment and debt-financing decisions is examined. Inflation affects optimal investment and financing directly through the probability of accounting loss and the real value of depreciation and interest tax shields. In addition, when corporate and differential personal taxes cause investment and financing decisions to interact, inflation has indirect effects on these decisions through their interactions. In general, the overall effects of inflation on optimal investment and debt are ambiguous in sign. For tax-exempt firms, however, optimal investment and debt are independent of inflation. For firms that are always in a tax-paying position, higher inflation reduces optimal investment without affecting optimal debt. Furthermore, inflation causes total firm value to decrease if the depreciation rate exceeds the firm's debt/asset ratio.     

Volatility Forecasting and Time‐varying Variance Risk Premiums in Grains Commodity Markets

In this paper we examine empirically the predictive power of model‐free option‐implied variance and skewness in wheat, maize and soybeans derivative markets. We find that option‐implied risk‐neutral variance outperforms historical variance as a predictor of future realised variance for these three commodities. In addition, we find that risk‐neutral option‐implied skewness significantly improves variance forecasting when added in the information variable set. Variance risk premia add significant predictive power when included as an additional factor for predicting future commodity returns.     

HOW DO YOU CAPTURE LIQUIDITY? A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ON LOW-FREQUENCY STOCK LIQUIDITY

Researchers have various ways to measure liquidity but most of them come with both merits and demerits. This study provides a literature review of low-frequency liquidity measures with a primary focus on liquidity measurement as well as its implication on asset pricing. Based on the dimension it captures, a range of existing low-frequency measures are divided into four categories of liquidity proxies including transaction cost, volume, price impact, and multidimension-based measures. We review some well-established liquidity proxies, a new bid–ask spread estimator and price impact ratios proposed recently. Finally, we discuss how good low-frequency liquidity measures are at capturing standard liquidity benchmarks, which are constructed from high-frequency intraday data.     

Hard,soft or ambidextrous? Which influence style promotes managers’ task performance and the role of political skill

Abstract

Ambidexterity at the manager level focuses on the crucial, but underexplored, role of managers’ knowledge, skills, and behaviors to address competing demands and promote organizational ambidexterity. As such, to successfully complete their assigned duties, managers need to employ the appropriate interpersonal style and calibrate their behavior to different contextual demands. This study highlights the role of the individual in the ambidexterity process by introducing the concept of influence tactic ambidexterity, to denote the frequent use of both hard and soft influence and investigating its role on task performance. Drawing on the literature on ambidexterity and HRM, we analyze data from a sample of 172 middle managers and their corresponding 68 supervisors working for multinational organizations, and provide evidence that influence tactic ambidexterity relates to higher levels and less variation in managers’ task performance compared to the sole use of either hard or soft tactics. Our findings also show that political skill positively moderates the relationship between influence tactic ambidexterity and a manager’s task performance. Therefore, this study suggests that influence tactic ambidexterity and political skill can be considered valuable HR assets for managers.     

Cryptocurrencies and asset pricing

We demonstrate that investors obtain abnormal returns by trading cryptocurrencies daily on the London Stock Exchange from 2014–2017. Excess returns persist once we account for systematic risk, size, value, momentum, profitability and investment. Investor abnormal returns in cryptocurrencies implies inefficiency.     

A computer-supported collaborative learning (CSCL) approach in teaching research methods

The aim of this study is to evaluate the extent to which the engagement of hospitality students in computer-mediated asynchronous discourse in a postgraduate research methods course results in higher-order thinking. In order to identify their overall behavioural engagement in the discourse elements of the course, quantitative data from running the course in WebCT was obtained using the “track students” function. The threaded discussions were converted into text files and loaded in NVivo for content analysis. In addition, the students’ course evaluation questionnaires were used to assess their perceived benefits from the asynchronous discourse on research methods. This study shows that computer-supported collaborative learning allows students to become active and reflective learners by engaging in high order thinking activities. The results of this study highlight the options that hospitality management educators may consider as part of their teaching and learning strategies.