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141.
Ailing Gu 《Scandinavian actuarial journal》2020,2020(4):342-375
ABSTRACTWe discuss an optimal excess-of-loss reinsurance contract in a continuous-time principal-agent framework where the surplus of the insurer (agent/he) is described by a classical Cramér-Lundberg (C-L) model. In addition to reinsurance, the insurer and the reinsurer (principal/she) are both allowed to invest their surpluses into a financial market containing one risk-free asset (e.g. a short-rate account) and one risky asset (e.g. a market index). In this paper, the insurer and the reinsurer are ambiguity averse and have specific modeling risk aversion preferences for the insurance claims (this relates to the jump term in the stochastic models) and the financial market's risk (this encompasses the models' diffusion term). The reinsurer designs a reinsurance contract that maximizes the exponential utility of her terminal wealth under a worst-case scenario which depends on the retention level of the insurer. By employing the dynamic programming approach, we derive the optimal robust reinsurance contract, and the value functions for the reinsurer and the insurer under this contract. In order to provide a more explicit reinsurance contract and to facilitate our quantitative analysis, we discuss the case when the claims follow an exponential distribution; it is then possible to show explicitly the impact of ambiguity aversion on the optimal reinsurance. 相似文献
142.
城市化进程是否纯粹表现为"农转非"的过程或者结果,各方评价不一。该文通过福利经济学的解释,从福利经济学的前提假设、我国社会心理、基层政府行为等多方面阐释"农转非"的经济福利走向和不确定性,提出有针对性的建议,并对福利经济学在中国的机遇与挑战进行简要探讨,使其为我所用。 相似文献
143.
Lebanon is a complex country of extraordinary promise; often thrust into crisis, including recent military assaults, terrorist attacks and bombings. The authors share findings from a longitudinal field-study of the evolving political and business climate of Lebanon, emphasizing a particular MNC that is thriving amidst social, ideological and political conflicts. A synthesis of primary and secondary data revealed the InterContinental Phoenicia hotel as a model institution in the face of extreme crisis. Key managerial insights that can be helpful to investors, MNCs and managers in the Middle East and other places subjected to similarly extreme conditions are shared. 相似文献
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146.
Fred PhillipsAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(6):1072-1078
As the long-wave theory has predicted, we are seeing a period of consolidation in which the pace of radical technological innovation seems exceeded by the pace of social change. Peter Drucker's dictum, that technology changes faster than society, appears now to have been reversed. The article offers research and anecdotal support for these assertions, linking them to specific trends and trend interactions, including patents and intellectual property litigation, new product development, and politics and revolution. 相似文献
147.
Fergus BolgerAuthor Vitae Andrew StranieriAuthor VitaeGeorge WrightAuthor Vitae John YearwoodAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(9):1671-1680
We investigate the relative impact of internal Delphi process factors - including panelists' degree of confidence, expertise, majority/minority positioning - and an external factor, richness of feedback - on opinion change and subsequent accuracy of judgmental forecasts. We found that panelists who had low confidence in their judgmental forecast and/or who were in a minority were more likely to change their opinion than those who were more confident and/or in a majority. The addition of rationales, or reasons, to the numeric feedback had little impact upon panelists' final forecasts, despite the quality of panelists' rationales being significantly positively correlated with accurate forecasts and thus of potential use to aid forecast improvement over Delphi rounds. Rather, the effect of rationales was similar to that of confidence: to pull panelists towards the majority opinion regardless of its correctness. We conclude that majority opinion is the strongest influence on panelists' opinion change in both the ‘standard’ Delphi, and Delphi-with-reasons. We make some suggestions for improved variants of the Delphi-with-reasons technique that should help reduce majority influence and thereby permit reasoned arguments to exert their proper pull on opinion change, resulting in forecast accuracy improvements over Delphi rounds. 相似文献
148.
Philip J. VergragtAuthor Vitae Jaco QuistAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(5):747-755
In this introductory paper we introduce the special issue on “Backcasting for Sustainability”. We present briefly a historical background, and position backcasting in the wider context of future studies, in which it can be related to “normative forecasting” and normative scenarios. We reflect on the diversity and variety of backcasting studies and experiments, as presented in the ten papers for this special issue. After summarizing the papers we formulate a future research agenda. 相似文献
149.
Stephen W. DaviesAuthor VitaeIvan Diaz-RaineyAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(7):1227-1241
Recent years have seen growing academic interest in the concept of induced diffusion as efforts to address concerns about energy security and climate change have intensified. Research on induced diffusion explores whether policy tools or interventions can incentivise the diffusion of innovations. This body of literature has explored the effectiveness and efficiency of various policy interventions and as such has been mainly concerned with the determinants of diffusion. This paper is, by way of contrast, concerned with the patterns of diffusion when diffusion is induced. Drawing on the Bass and Davies models of innovation diffusion we develop a number of propositions that suggest that the patterns of diffusion are different when policy plays a role in the diffusion process. These propositions are then econometrically tested in the context of the international diffusion of wind energy in 25 OECD countries. We find that, as predicted, without effective and strong policy interventions, countries will have conventional logistic diffusion with very similar speeds of diffusion. However, as expected the patterns of diffusion take on a different functional form (Bass curve) when there is a strong policy inducement. We conclude by discussing the implications and limitations of these results and suggesting avenues for further research. 相似文献
150.
We propose an alternative bivariate zero-inflated negative binomial (BZINB) regression model based on a copula. The empirical result shows that the proposed model performs better than the existing BZINB models in terms of the maximum log-likelihood and the AIC. 相似文献