Liquidity and Twin Crises

This paper proposes a simple analytical framework for understanding 'twin crises'– i.e. crises where a currency crisis and banking crisis occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. The distinguishing feature of such crises is the spill‐over effects across financial institutions through collateral constraints, declines in market values of assets, currency mismatches on the balance sheet and the endogenous amplification of financial distress through asset sales. We explore the role of liquidity and the role of monetary policy in such crises. In particular, a central question is whether raising interest rates in the face of a twin crisis is the appropriate policy response. Raising interest rates has two countervailing effects. Holding the domestic currency becomes more attractive (other things being equal), but the value of the domestic banking system falls due to the fall in asset prices. When assets are marked to market, there is a potential for endogenously generated financial distress that leads to a collapse of asset prices, as well as the exchange rate. It is thus possible that raising interest rates can have the perverse effect of exacerbating both the currency crisis and the banking crisis.     

A multiregional model of China and its application

China's rapid economic transformation since 1979 has been accompanied by a stark regional disparity with the coastal provinces integrating swiftly into the world markets while inland regions lagging far behind in the industrialisation process. The growth imbalance has placed China's provinces into different stages of development and called for different policy responses to deal with different challenges they are facing. Similarly, a national policy initiated by the central government is likely to be interpreted and implemented in different ways when local governments take into consideration the different conditions in their localities. Therefore, it would be extremely valuable for policy makers and researchers to have an analytical tool that is capable of studying interactions among the provincial economies and the dynamic relationship between the centre and local governments. The multiregional econometric model of China presented in this paper is the first attempt to provide such a tool. The pioneering model consists of over 1200 equations, covering 30 provinces of China that are linked by inter-regional flows of goods and services. The model is used to study the impact of fiscal recentralisation in the 1990s. The counterfactual simulation results show that when China's central government diverted tax revenue from provincial governments, it achieved higher budgetary revenue for the central government but at the expense of lower overall budgetary revenue and slower economic growth.     

打造世界级装备制造业的基本战略

装备制造业是一个国家工业的基础和创新的源泉,是衡量一个国家国际竞争力的重要标志。因此,全球各大国都把促进装备制造业发展作为一项基本国策。作为制造业大国的中国,其装备制造业也快速崛起,在国际分工中取得了一定的地位,但也存在一些问题,这需要我们寻找恰当的策略,把中国打造成为世界级的装备制造业基地。     

居民收入增长的体制困境与经济分权改革

政府纵向分权体制中的经济增长激励与同级政府体系中的横向财政分权过渡,是导致我国居民收入比重过低的体制性因素。在政府的要素支配权过大、经济职能过多的背景下,中央政府难以消除地方政府产业偏好对劳动报酬份额的不利影响,提高居民收入比重的政策实施空间受到限制。长期来看,要从根本上破解居民收入增长的体制困境,必须深化政府向市场的经济分权改革,使政府职能回归应有的"公共"属性。     

会计信息化发展问题研究

本文总结了过去二十多年我国会计信息化的发展和现状,阐述了今后进一步发展的对策。     

论公共行政体制建设

建立和完善与社会主义市场经济体制相适应、与民主政治建设相配套，既符合国际规则，又兼顾我国实际的公共行政体制，是党的十六大提出的要求，也是全国人民的共同心愿。     

美貌溢价:劳动力市场歧视是主因吗?—基于中国劳动力动态调查数据的实证研究

文章利用中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)数据,分析了具有不同身高等外貌特征的劳动力的工资差异及其来源.分解结果显示,较高男性的高收入几乎全部可以用人力资本、社会交际及其他劳动能力特征差异来解释,劳动力市场歧视等不可解释部分非常小.较矮男性的低收入有60%可以用劳动能力特征差异来解释,有40%属于劳动力市场歧视等不可解释部分.身高较高(矮)的女性的高(低)收入也主要源于劳动能力特征差异;对较矮女性来说,歧视等不可解释部分具有相反的影响,即劳动力市场不但不歧视反而偏爱较矮的女性.因此,劳动力市场歧视并不是身高溢价的主要原因.然而,劳动力市场之外,在社交活动中的外貌歧视会通过增加社交网络差异而提高美貌溢价.     

Herding and bank runs

Traditional models of bank runs do not allow for herding effects, because in these models withdrawal decisions are assumed to be made simultaneously. I extend the banking model to allow a depositor to choose his withdrawal time. When he withdraws depends on his consumption type (patient or impatient), his private, noisy signal about the quality of the bank's portfolio, and the withdrawal histories of the other depositors. Some of these runs are efficient in that the bank is liquidated before the portfolio worsens. Others are not efficient; these are cases in which the herd is misled.     

Foresight analysis of tilapia supply chains (Sistema Producto) in four states in Mexico: Scenarios and strategies for 2018

In order to increase competitiveness among individual producers and to encourage their integration, the federal government of Mexico has pursued the establishment, at both the state and national levels, of supply chains, or Sistema Producto (SP). For fisheries and aquaculture, 33 SPs exist at the state level and 7 at the national level, 1 of them for tilapia. The objective of this study is to carry out a foresight analysis (FA) of 4 tilapia SPs in Mexico—for the States of Colima, Sonora, Tabasco and Yucatán—analyzing their 2018 vision for the development of the tilapia chain. FA provides an integral vision of both the internal and external environments, identifying the key factors for each SP and helping to develop the best strategies in order to compete successfully. Sonora, Tabasco and Yucatán identify marketing aspects as key elements for their 10-year future: adding value to the product by means of new processing technologies, developing their own brand, and identifying and differentiating their product based on sanitary issues. Colima focuses its industry future success on efficiency improvements. Finally, the main technological disruptions identified by the 4 states are the incremental use of information technology, product and process certification, new hatcheries with genetically-improved fry, and new processing methodologies developed and/or applied.     

Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm

In the last three decades much knowledge has been produced on how best to conduct foresight exercises, but little is known on how foresight should be integrated with the innovation effort of a company. Drawing on empirical evidence from 19 case studies and 107 interviews, we identify three roles that corporate foresight should play to maximize the innovation capacity of a firm: (1) the strategist role, which explores new business fields; (2) the initiator role, which increases the number of innovation concepts and ideas; and (3) the opponent role, which challenges innovation projects to increase the quality of their output.