An EC-framework for scientific research and technological innovation

Science and technology have come under the fire of critics over the last ten years or so, but the present situation of mankind will call for more, and not less, human ingenuity. A particular problem for Europe to master is the need to improve the channels for translating scientific achievements into competitive engineering and technology. It is a problem which can best be solved within a coherent policy framework, designed and implemented at Community level.     

Realizing the gains from trade: Export crops, marketing costs, and poverty

This paper explores the role of export costs in the process of poverty reduction in rural Africa. We claim that the marketing costs that emerge when the commercialization of export crops requires intermediaries can lead to lower participation into export cropping and, thus, to higher poverty. We test the model using data from the Uganda National Household Survey. We show that: i) farmers living in villages with fewer outlets for sales of agricultural exports are likely to be poorer than farmers residing in market-endowed villages; ii) market availability leads to increased household participation in export cropping (coffee, tea, cotton, fruits); iii) households engaged in export cropping are less likely to be poor than subsistence-based households. We conclude that the availability of markets for agricultural export crops help realize the gains from trade. This result uncovers the role of complementary factors that provide market access and reduce marketing costs as key building blocks in the link between the gains from export opportunities and the poor.     

Simplified Risk Analysis in Agricultural Extension

Attention is given to the major methods of assessing risk in order to make choices. The literature frequently reports studies on mean-variance (E-V) analysis and stochastic dominance rules. Both of these methods are compared, in an agricultural application, with the approach outlined by Hanoch and Levy. The empirical results suggests that Hanoch and Levy's criterion appear to reduce the size of the risk-efficient set, and that the sets of recommendations from the methods under comparison were consistent. The two recommendations generated by Hanoch and Levy's rule were found to be reasonable for this particular decision process.     

Determinants of the Willingness of Belgian Farmers to Participate in Agri‐environmental Measures

This paper explores the willingness of Belgian farmers to participate in two voluntary agri‐environmental policies. Farmers' contingent behaviour is analysed on the basis of survey data. Derivations based on a conceptual micro‐economic model indicate that decision subject and decision maker characteristics are important for farmers' participation. The model is empirically tested through the specification and estimation of a probit model. Consistency is found between the theoretical framework and the empirical results indicating that both the expected effect on farm production and the farmers' environmental attitude, which is more positive among younger and better educated farmers, are significant determinants of the acceptance rate of agri‐environmental policies. Other variables which influence participation decisions are farm size and previous experience of farmers themselves or of neighbouring farmers with agri‐environmental measures.     

A Comparison of State-of-the-Art Classification Techniques for Expert Automobile Insurance Claim Fraud Detection

Several state‐of‐the‐art binary classification techniques are experimentally evaluated in the context of expert automobile insurance claim fraud detection. The predictive power of logistic regression, C4.5 decision tree, k‐nearest neighbor, Bayesian learning multilayer perceptron neural network, least‐squares support vector machine, naive Bayes, and tree‐augmented naive Bayes classification is contrasted. For most of these algorithm types, we report on several operationalizations using alternative hyperparameter or design choices. We compare these in terms of mean percentage correctly classified (PCC) and mean area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve using a stratified, blocked, ten‐fold cross‐validation experiment. We also contrast algorithm type performance visually by means of the convex hull of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves associated with the alternative operationalizations per algorithm type. The study is based on a data set of 1,399 personal injury protection claims from 1993 accidents collected by the Automobile Insurers Bureau of Massachusetts. To stay as close to real‐life operating conditions as possible, we consider only predictors that are known relatively early in the life of a claim. Furthermore, based on the qualification of each available claim by both a verbal expert assessment of suspicion of fraud and a ten‐point‐scale expert suspicion score, we can compare classification for different target/class encoding schemes. Finally, we also investigate the added value of systematically collecting nonflag predictors for suspicion of fraud modeling purposes. From the observed results, we may state that: (1) independent of the target encoding scheme and the algorithm type, the inclusion of nonflag predictors allows us to significantly boost predictive performance; (2) for all the evaluated scenarios, the performance difference in terms of mean PCC and mean AUROC between many algorithm type operationalizations turns out to be rather small; visual comparison of the algorithm type ROC curve convex hulls also shows limited difference in performance over the range of operating conditions; (3) relatively simple and efficient techniques such as linear logistic regression and linear kernel least‐squares support vector machine classification show excellent overall predictive capabilities, and (smoothed) naive Bayes also performs well; and (4) the C4.5 decision tree operationalization results are rather disappointing; none of the tree operationalizations are capable of attaining mean AUROC performance in line with the best. Visual inspection of the evaluated scenarios reveals that the C4.5 algorithm type ROC curve convex hull is often dominated in large part by most of the other algorithm type hulls.     

Context Effects on Older Consumers’ Cognitive Age: The Role of Hedonic versus Utilitarian Goals

This paper deals with older consumers’ cognitive age (i.e., the age they feel), which is self‐assessed as systematically lower than their chronological age (i.e., their actual age). Such a tendency would lead older consumers to display attitudes and purchasing behaviors, which are not typical of people of their real age. Two studies show that cognitive age is not an immutable construct but varies according to its context of reference, so that the same individual may feel different ages under different circumstances. Results demonstrate that the declared cognitive age is affected by the physical environment, the social references, and the product categories that the consumer is using when self‐assessing it. Furthermore, the tendency of older consumers to feel younger is stronger when these consumers are pursuing in these contexts hedonic rather than utilitarian goals. These findings provide novel inputs for the development of appropriate ways to measure cognitive age and to deal with it when targeting senior consumers and positioning hedonic versus utilitarian goods.     

Herd Behavior in Latin American Stock Markets

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the presence of herd behavior in Latin American stock markets using the methodologies proposed by Christie and Huang (1995 Christie , W. G. , &; Huang , R. D. ( 1995 ). Following the pied piper: Do individual returns herd around the market? Financial Analysts Journal , 51 ( 4 ), 31 – 37 .[Taylor &; Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) and Chang, Cheng, and Khorana (2000 Chang , E. C. , Cheng , J. W. , &; Khorana , A. ( 2000 ). An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective . Journal of Banking and Finance , 24 ( 10 ), 1651 – 1679 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Daily closing prices and trading volumes from January 3, 2000 to September 15, 2010 from the stock markets of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and the United States were analyzed. The US market was studied in order to provide a reference for comparison. The shares for which data was collected in each country were those listed in the most representative stock index for each market. It was not possible to establish evidence of herd behavior in any of the five countries studied using the Christie and Huang (1995 Christie , W. G. , &; Huang , R. D. ( 1995 ). Following the pied piper: Do individual returns herd around the market? Financial Analysts Journal , 51 ( 4 ), 31 – 37 .[Taylor &; Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) method. However, evaluating the data for the entire period using the method proposed by Chang, Cheng, and Khorana (2000 Chang , E. C. , Cheng , J. W. , &; Khorana , A. ( 2000 ). An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective . Journal of Banking and Finance , 24 ( 10 ), 1651 – 1679 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) we detected herd behavior in the Chilean market. These results were not affected by the addition of additional exogenous variables representing the September 11 attacks of 2001 and the subprime crisis, or when the effect of the behavior of US shares on other countries was analyzed. Asymmetric herd behavior was detected in the Chilean, United States, Argentinean, and Mexican markets.     

Random incentive systems in a dynamic choice experiment

Experiments frequently use a random incentive system (RIS), where only tasks that are randomly selected at the end of the experiment are for real. The most common type pays every subject one out of her multiple tasks (within-subjects randomization). Recently, another type has become popular, where a subset of subjects is randomly selected, and only these subjects receive one real payment (between-subjects randomization). In earlier tests with simple, static tasks, RISs performed well. The present study investigates RISs in a more complex, dynamic choice experiment. We find that between-subjects randomization reduces risk aversion. While within-subjects randomization delivers unbiased measurements of risk aversion, it does not eliminate carry-over effects from previous tasks. Both types generate an increase in subjects’ error rates. These results suggest that caution is warranted when applying RISs to more complex and dynamic tasks.