The European debt crisis and fiscal reactions in Europe 2000–2014

After the outbreak of the global financial crisis, some governments in the EU experienced serious fiscal problems, while others were less affected. This paper seeks to shed light on the divergent fiscal performance in the EU countries before and after the outbreak of the crisis. Fiscal reaction functions of the primary balance are estimated for different groups of EU countries using quarterly data for the pre-crisis period 2001–2008 and for the crisis period 2009–2014. The pre-crisis estimations reveal some differences in persistence and cyclical reaction between different groups of countries, but in most cases little feedback from the debt stock to the primary balance. The fiscal reaction functions of the countries that eventually developed fiscal problems do not stand out. The estimations on data from the crisis period show largely unchanged persistence and counter-cyclicality but much more feedback from the debt stock, and this applies both to the crisis countries and those less affected. In spite of large deficits and accumulation of debt, the underlying fiscal reaction has become more prudent after the outbreak of the European debt crisis.     

EVIDENCE THEORY AS A PROCEDURE FOR HANDLING NOVEL EVENTS

Evidence Theory is a branch of the mathematics of uncertain reasoning that entails profound epistemological differences with respect to Probability Theory. In fact, its paradigmatic situation is the judge who must evaluate testimonies, rather than the gambler who must evaluates odds. Unlike a gambler, who faces a definite set of possibilities, a judge maybe forced to change her evaluation because of novel possibilities suggested by unexpected testimonies. In this sense, Evidence Theory provides a formalization of some among Shackles intuitions. While the details of the connections between Shackle's theory and Evidence Theory have been explored elsewhere, this article is devoted to a detailed explanation of the working of Evidence Theory. An example is discussed in detail and several domains of application are briefly sketched.     

Limit theory for panel data models with cross sectional dependence and sequential exogeneity

The paper derives a general Central Limit Theorem (CLT) and asymptotic distributions for sample moments related to panel data models with large n$n$. The results allow for the data to be cross sectionally dependent, while at the same time allowing the regressors to be only sequentially rather than strictly exogenous. The setup is sufficiently general to accommodate situations where cross sectional dependence stems from spatial interactions and/or from the presence of common factors. The latter leads to the need for random norming. The limit theorem for sample moments is derived by showing that the moment conditions can be recast such that a martingale difference array central limit theorem can be applied. We prove such a central limit theorem by first extending results for stable convergence in Hall and Heyde (1980) to non-nested martingale arrays relevant for our applications. We illustrate our result by establishing a generalized estimation theory for GMM estimators of a fixed effect panel model without imposing i.i.d. or strict exogeneity conditions. We also discuss a class of Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimators that can be analyzed using our CLT.     

The dynamics of parallel economies. Measuring the informal sector in Mexico

The existence of parallel economies that operate in the shadows of informality within most Latin American countries is widely recognized by the economic literature. However, its composition, size and effects on economic growth are still open questions. In this paper, we estimate the size and the evolution of the Mexican informal economy in the last three decades using a vector error correction model. In addition to the standard explanatory variables traditionally used in the currency demand approach, we include remittances given their relevance in the Mexican economic system. The results indicate that informality prior to the late 1980s accounted for at least two thirds of GDP, while stabilizing around one third of GDP in the last decade. Furthermore, our estimates provide evidence of a positive long-run relationship between informality and economic growth.     

Prioritising land to be preserved for agriculture: A context-specific value tree

In Belgium as in many other countries, agricultural land is under pressure for development of other land uses. This paper presents a method for setting priorities for preservation of land for agriculture. The method is based on a participatory approach through which a value tree is formulated. This results in a list of criteria to define farmland value, which is explicitly linked to the objectives for farmland preservation. The value tree allows the list of criteria to be determined in a structured and consistent way. The participatory process contributes to the development of a shared vision on farmland preservation. The approach also incorporates context specificity, as shown by its application for farmland preservation in Flanders.     

Raising offtake from cattle grazed on natural rangelands in sub-Saharan Africa: a transaction cost economics approach

Farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa are constrained by large transaction costs associated with marketing of their livestock. However, transaction costs are often not taken into account in the analysis of factors hampering the development of livestock marketing in this region. This article empirically measures the influence of transaction costs on the offtake from cattle grazed on natural rangelands in Uganda. The study is based on the monitoring of 696 cattle transactions in three districts of Uganda from August 2004 to August 2005. The estimated models suggest that proportional transaction costs represented by the state of roads, distance to markets, and time taken to reach the market are important variables constraining market participation. In order to raise offtake from the national herd, it is essential to explicitly address these costs. One potential solution is collective action in marketing of livestock in which proportional and fixed transaction costs are reduced and shared among the group members.     

The returns to cognitive abilities and personality traits in Germany

We provide the first joint evidence on the relationship between individuals' cognitive abilities, their personality and earnings for Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study, we employ scores from an ultra-short IQ-test and a set of measures of personality traits, namely locus of control, reciprocity and all basic items from the Five Factor Personality Inventory. Our estimates suggest a positive effect of so-called fluid intelligence or speed of cognition on males' wages only. Findings for personality traits are more heterogeneous. However, there is a robust wage penalty for an external locus of control for both men and women.     

ROSA,ROSAE, ROSIS: modelling a regional open sectoral innovation system

The literature on territorial innovation modes has identified the development of a diverse set of innovation systems at multiple levels of analysis. However, there are certain gaps that do not allow their adaptation to the particularities of certain territories. Despite the multiple concepts related to innovation systems approach, the state of the art does not yet provide a useful analytical approach for a deep and comprehensive characterization of territories with a high sectoral and technological specialization. This paper introduces an analytical framework based on a regional open and sectoral innovation system, which is qualitatively tested in the Durango County (Spain). The aim of this paper is to introduce a subtype of innovation system that meets the requirements and needs of a located micro-territory with a high level of sectoral specialization.     

Would you like to shrink the welfare state? A survey of European citizens

The fundamental problems facing European welfare states – high unemployment and unsustainable public pensions plans in particular – have been in the political debate for years, so why have we seen so little reform? To find out, we surveyed the opinions of citizens in France, Germany, Italy and Spain on their welfare states and on various reform options. This is what we found. First, most workers underestimate the costs of public pensions, though they are aware of their unsustainability. Second, the status quo is a majoritarian outcome: a majority of citizens opposes cuts to social security and welfare spending, but also opposes further increases. Since population ageing without reform implies an automatic expansion, our results suggest that most citizens would favour reforms that stabilize but do not shrink the current welfare states. Third, many would welcome changes in the allocation of benefits. A large number of workers in Italy and Germany would be willing to opt out of public pensions and replace them with private pensions, though the details of how this scheme is formulated matter for its popularity. And many Italians and Spaniards would welcome an extension of the coverage of unemployment insurance. Fourth, conflicts over the welfare state are mainly shaped by the economic situation of the respondent, while political ideology plays a limited role. Disagreements are found along three dimensions: young versus old, rich versus poor, and 'outsider' versus 'insider' in terms of labour market status. From a practical point of view, this suggests that there is scope to bundle reforms strategically in order to build a large and mixed coalition of supporters.
— Tito Boeri, Axel Börsch-Supan and Guido Tabellini