Multi-step forecasting in emerging economies: An investigation of the South African GDP

To forecast at several, say h, periods into the future, a modeller faces a choice between iterating one-step-ahead forecasts (the IMS technique), or directly modeling the relationship between observations separated by an h-period interval and using it for forecasting (DMS forecasting). It is known that structural breaks, unit-root non-stationarity and residual autocorrelation may improve DMS accuracy in finite samples, all of which occur when modelling the South African GDP over the period 1965–2000. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of 779 multivariate and univariate models that combine different techniques of robust forecasting. We find strong evidence supporting the use of DMS and intercept correction, and attribute their superior forecasting performance to their robustness in the presence of breaks.     

Endogenous transfers in the Prisoner's Dilemma game: An experimental test of cooperation and coordination

We test a two-stage compensation mechanism for promoting cooperation in Prisoner's Dilemma games. Players first simultaneously choose binding non-negative amounts to pay their counterparts for cooperating, and then play the induced game knowing these amounts. In our games, all payment pairs consistent with mutual cooperation in subgame-perfect equilibrium transform these games into coordination games, with both mutual cooperation and mutual defection as Nash equilibria in the second stage. When endogenous transfer payments are not permitted, cooperation is much less likely. Mutual cooperation is most likely when the (sufficient) payments are identical, and it is also substantially more likely with payment pairs that bring the mutual-cooperation payoffs closer together. Both the Fehr–Schmidt and Charness–Rabin models predict that transfers that make final payoffs closer are preferred; however, they do not explain why equal transfers are particularly effective. Transfers are also effective in sustaining cooperation even when they are imposed and not chosen.     

Rejecting New Technology: The Case of Genetically Modified Wheat

Canada has stringent regulations covering the release of new wheat varieties, but the United States has virtually no regulations in this area. Monsanto Co. developed genetically modified (GM) spring wheat for North America, and made a commitment to the U.S. industry to release this new technology simultaneously in both Canada and the United States, or not at all. The Canadian regulatory bias against new varieties acted as a veto against GM wheat and caused Monsanto to shelve the technology in both countries in 2004. Substantial economic rents were foregone in North America due to the rejection of this new technology.     

Making the best of best-of

This paper extends the analytical valuation of options on the maximum or the minimum of several risky assets in several directions. The first extension consists in including more assets in the payoff and making the latter more flexible by adding knock-in and knock-out provisions. The second extension consists in pricing these contracts in a multivariate jump-diffusion framework allowing for a stochastic two-factor term structure of interest rates. In both cases, explicit formulae are provided which yield prices quasi instantaneously and with utmost precision. Hedge ratios can be easily and accurately derived from these formulae.     

Land degradation in the Lao PDR: Discourses and policy

While there is an important body of research on environmental discourses and policy in Southeast Asia, the situation in the Lao PDR remains understudied. This paper builds on debates related to environmental change and knowledge production and examines the socio-political construction of the current mainstream discourse on land degradation in Laos. It highlights that, despite significant uncertainties as regard the extent and severity of the issue, land degradation in the uplands is represented by the Laotian authorities and many of their development partners as a major and imminent threat to the development of the country. The paper also examines the way this perspective is translated into policies specifically aimed at resolving the upland issue and proposes an alternative reading of this process where mainstream discourse and associated policy appear partly shaped by the subjectivities and political economic projects of Laos’ policy-makers. Finally, drawing on the case of Laos, the paper provides a critical reflection on conventional approaches to assessing socio-environmental issues and defining policy interventions.     

The collective action problem: Within-group cooperation and between-group competition in a repeated rent-seeking game

This paper analyzes the ability of group members to cooperate in rent-seeking activities in a context of between-group competition. For this purpose, we develop an infinitely repeated rent-seeking game between two groups of different size. We first investigate Nash reversion strategies to support cooperative behavior in both groups, before analyzing double-edge trigger strategies which support cooperation in one group only. These last strategies have the property that cheating on the agreement in the cooperative group is followed by non-cooperation in this group and cooperation in the rival group. The main conclusion is that the set of parameters for which cooperation can be sustained within the larger group as a subgame perfect outcome is as large as that for which cooperation can be sustained in the smaller group. Hence, in contrast to Olson?s (1965) celebrated thesis, but in accordance with many informal and formal observations, larger groups can be as effective as smaller groups in furthering their interests.     

How can our cars become less polluting? An assessment of the environmental improvement potential of cars

This paper presents a systematic overview of the environmental impacts of new average diesel and petrol cars from a life cycle perspective. An analysis of different technical and non-technical improvement options that could be achieved at each stage of a car’s life cycle was performed. The consequences of the adoption of these options on the environment were estimated. The results show that some of the options analysed could have a major positive impact on the vehicle efficiency and induce large improvements of the environmental profile of passenger cars. The highest improvements are achievable through more efficient power trains (including hybrid car), and through lightweight cars. For some options, burden shifts from one car life cycle phase to another, or from one environmental problem to another, can occur. The results show that besides the purely technological options, those that imply behavioural changes by the driver may also reduce the environmental burden substantially.     

Calculating load factors for the transatlantic airline market using supply and demand data – A note on the identification of gaps in the available airline statistics

This paper takes a critical view of the verification of load factors for the direct transatlantic airline market by combining supply and demand-data. The supply-related data originate from the Official Airline Guide, a well-known data source that contains information on scheduled flights. The demand-related data originate from the Marketing Information Data Transfer database, a data set containing information on actual airline bookings. Combining both data sets enables us to calculate the seat occupancy of direct flights between North-West Europe and the US for 2001. Based on the results, we assess the utility of the joint use of these data sources for aviation economic research, and identify various gaps in the available airline statistics.     

The role of collective action in the marketing of underutilized plant species: Lessons from a case study on minor millets in South India

Underutilized plant species are generally defined by their unexploited economic potential, making them an appropriate focus for market development. This paper analyses the role of collective action in the process of market development for minor millets, an underutilized plant species, in the Kolli Hills of Tamil Nadu, India. Based on a series of focus group discussions, we analyze the role and involvement of self-help groups in the minor millet marketing chain recently set up by the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation. We then compare the role of collective action in this new market with the cases of marketing chains for cassava and organic pineapples, two cash crops with expanding production in the same area. Our analysis shows the critical role of collective action as a necessary but not sufficient condition for the successful commercialization of underutilized plant species for the benefit of the poor and the conservation of agro-biodiversity.     

Infinitely repeated games in the laboratory: four perspectives on discounting and random termination

This paper compares behavior under four different implementations of infinitely repeated games in the laboratory: the standard random termination method [proposed by Roth and Murnighan (J Math Psychol 17:189–198, 1978)] and three other methods that de-couple the expected number of rounds and the discount factor. Two of these methods involve a fixed number of repetitions with payoff discounting, followed by random termination [proposed by Sabater-Grande and Georgantzis (J Econ Behav Organ 48:37–50, 2002)] or followed by a coordination game [proposed in (Andersson and Wengström in J Econ Behav Organ 81:207–219, 2012; Cooper and Kuhn in Am Econ J Microecon 6:247–278, 2014a)]. We also propose a new method—block random termination—in which subjects receive feedback about termination in blocks of rounds. We find that behavior is consistent with the presence of dynamic incentives only with methods using random termination, with the standard method generating the highest level of cooperation. Subject behavior in the other two methods display two features: a higher level of stability in cooperation rates and less dependence on past experience. Estimates of the strategies used by subjects reveal that across implementations, even when the discount rate is the same, if interactions are expected to be longer defection increases and the use of the Grim strategy decreases.