Multi-step forecasting in emerging economies: An investigation of the South African GDP

To forecast at several, say h, periods into the future, a modeller faces a choice between iterating one-step-ahead forecasts (the IMS technique), or directly modeling the relationship between observations separated by an h-period interval and using it for forecasting (DMS forecasting). It is known that structural breaks, unit-root non-stationarity and residual autocorrelation may improve DMS accuracy in finite samples, all of which occur when modelling the South African GDP over the period 1965–2000. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of 779 multivariate and univariate models that combine different techniques of robust forecasting. We find strong evidence supporting the use of DMS and intercept correction, and attribute their superior forecasting performance to their robustness in the presence of breaks.     

The role of collective action in the marketing of underutilized plant species: Lessons from a case study on minor millets in South India

Underutilized plant species are generally defined by their unexploited economic potential, making them an appropriate focus for market development. This paper analyses the role of collective action in the process of market development for minor millets, an underutilized plant species, in the Kolli Hills of Tamil Nadu, India. Based on a series of focus group discussions, we analyze the role and involvement of self-help groups in the minor millet marketing chain recently set up by the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation. We then compare the role of collective action in this new market with the cases of marketing chains for cassava and organic pineapples, two cash crops with expanding production in the same area. Our analysis shows the critical role of collective action as a necessary but not sufficient condition for the successful commercialization of underutilized plant species for the benefit of the poor and the conservation of agro-biodiversity.     

A comment on “School choice: An experimental study” [J. Econ. Theory 127 (1) (2006) 202-231]

We show that one of the main results in Chen and Sönmez (2006, 2008) [6] and [7] does no longer hold when the number of recombinations is sufficiently increased to obtain reliable conclusions. No school choice mechanism is significantly superior in terms of efficiency.     

Implications of mandatory labeling of GM food in India: Evidence from the supply side

We assess the supply-side economic implications of introducing a strict mandatory labeling policy for genetically modified (GM) food in India as proposed in 2006. We apply our analysis to the case of cottonseed oil and soybean oil, two products that would be the first affected by such regulation. We find that GM food labeling would generate adjustment and implementation costs and consumer benefits would not always be visible and would highly depend on the degree of enforcement.     

Making the best of best-of

This paper extends the analytical valuation of options on the maximum or the minimum of several risky assets in several directions. The first extension consists in including more assets in the payoff and making the latter more flexible by adding knock-in and knock-out provisions. The second extension consists in pricing these contracts in a multivariate jump-diffusion framework allowing for a stochastic two-factor term structure of interest rates. In both cases, explicit formulae are provided which yield prices quasi instantaneously and with utmost precision. Hedge ratios can be easily and accurately derived from these formulae.     

Asymmetric information and imperfect competition in a continuous time multivariate security model

This paper deals with the problem of price formation in a market with asymmetric information and several risky assets. We then extend the multivariate security model of Caballé and Krishnan (1994) to a continuous time framework, and general utility function. Our model enables us to observe some results which are specific to multi security markets such as Giffen effect. An application of the main result will be the non trivial generalizations of the models of Back (1992) and Cho (1997).Mathematics Subject Classification (1991): 49L10, 60G44, 90A15JEL Classification: G11, G12The author would like to thank his supervisor H. Pham, K. Back and an anonymous referee for useful comments and discussions.