A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility

We study the impact of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on the volatility of the yen/dollar exchange rate since the early 1990’s in a GARCH framework with interventions as exogenous variables. Using daily intervention data provided by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, we show that the effect of interventions varies over time. From 1991 up to the late 1990’s, Japanese foreign exchange intervention is associated with an increase in volatility of the yen/dollar exchange rate. After the year 1997, Japanese foreign exchange intervention correlates with reductions in exchange rate volatility. This can be explained by the fact that Japanese foreign exchange intervention remained quasi unsterilized in the liquidity trap.

Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area

In the past decade, a set of euro area countries has accumulated large current account deficits. After a brief relaxation of the euro area internal imbalances in the wake of the financial crisis, it appears as if this pattern arises anew when times normalize again and Germany still sticks to export-led growth. This issue has been labelled one of the most challenging economic policy issues for Europe inter alia by the European Commission and some other players on the EU level. In this paper, we analyse the role of private restructuring and structural reforms for the urgently needed sustainable readjustment of intra-euro area current account balances. A panel regression reveals a significant impact of structural reforms on intra-euro area current account balances. This implies that in particular structural reforms and wage restraint in notorious current account and budget deficit countries such as Greece are highly suitable to support long-term economic stability in Europe.     

Niedrigzinsen: EZB-Politik oder ökonomisches Gesetz?

Wirtschaftsdienst - For the public and the media, the ECB is responsible for low interest rates. This is only partially true. Interest rates started to decline long before the ECB’s...     

Fiscal divergence, current account divergence and TARGET2 imbalances in the EMU

Diverging fiscal policy paths, housing booms and diverging unit labour costs were driving forces of rising intra-European current account imbalances, which were underpinned by low interest rates. Since the outbreak of the crisis, the adjustment of intra-EMU current account imbalances has been postponed by a rising divergence of TARGET2 balances, as the repatriation of private international credit and deposit flight from the crisis economies is intermediated by central bank credit. Given that this process has brought the Deutsche Bundesbank into a debtor position to the domestic financial system, the article discusses options for liquidity absorption by the Bundesbank to forestall asset price bubbles in Germany.     

Folgen der Finanzkrise für die globalen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung Prof. Dr. Rolf J. Langhammer, 61, ist Vizepr?sident des Instituts für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel. Prof. Dr. Gunther Schnabl, 42, ist Leiter des Instituts für Wirtschaftspolitik an der Universit?t Leipzig. Jürgen Matthes, 41, Dipl.-Volkswirt, leitet das Referat Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik im Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft K?ln. K. MIchael Finger, 62, Dipl.-Volkswirt, war bis vor Kurzem Senior Economist in der Economic Research and Statistics Division der WTO. Prof. Dr. Andreas Freytag, 46, hat den Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftspolitik der Friedrich-Schiller-Universit?t Jena inne und ist Senior Fellow beim European Centre for International Political Economy; Sebastian Voll, 25, Dipl.-Volkswirt, ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftspolitik der Friedrich-Schiller-Universit?t Jena.     

Trends in the literature on socially responsible investment: looking for the keys under the lamppost

In this paper, we use online search engines and archive collections to examine the popularity of socially responsible investing (SRI) in newspapers and academic journals. A simple content analysis suggests that most of the papers on SRI focus on financial performance. This profusion of research is somewhat puzzling as most of the studies used roughly the same methodology and obtained very similar results. So, why are there so many studies on SRI financial performance? We argue that the academic literature on SRI is mostly data driven: the famous ‘looking for the keys under the lamppost’ syndrome. The question of the financial performance of the SRI funds is certainly relevant but maybe too much attention has been paid to this issue, whereas more research is needed on a conceptual and theoretical ground, in particular the aspirations of SRI investors, the relationship between regulation and SRI as well as the assessment of extra‐financial performances.     

Approximation methods for piecewise deterministic Markov processes and their costs

In this paper, we analyse piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs), as introduced in Davis (1984). Many models in insurance mathematics can be formulated in terms of the general concept of PDMPs. There one is interested in computing certain quantities of interest such as the probability of ruin or the value of an insurance company. Instead of explicitly solving the related integro-(partial) differential equation (an approach which can only be used in few special cases), we adapt the problem in a manner that allows us to apply deterministic numerical integration algorithms such as quasi-Monte Carlo rules; this is in contrast to applying random integration algorithms such as Monte Carlo. To this end, we reformulate a general cost functional as a fixed point of a particular integral operator, which allows for iterative approximation of the functional. Furthermore, we introduce a smoothing technique which is applied to the integrands involved, in order to use error bounds for deterministic cubature rules. We prove a convergence result for our PDMPs approximation, which is of independent interest as it justifies phase-type approximations on the process level. We illustrate the smoothing technique for a risk-theoretic example, and compare deterministic and Monte Carlo integration.     

The Case for Stabilizing China＇s Exchange Rate： Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion

China＇s financial conundrum arises from two sources. First, its large saving （trade） surplus results in a currency mismatch because it is an immature creditor that cannot lend in its own currency. Instead, foreign currency claims （largely US dollars） build up within domestic financial institutions. Second, economists, both American and Chinese, mistakenly attribute the surpluses to an undervalued RMB. To placate the USA, the result was a gradual and predictable appreciation of the RMB against the dollar of 6 percent or more per year from July 2005 to July 2008. Together with the fall in US interest rates since mid-2007, this one- way bet in the foreign exchanges markets not only attracted hot money inflows but inhibited private capital outflows from financing China＇ s huge trade surplus. Therefore, the People＇s Bank of China had to intervene heavily to prevent the RMB from ratcheting upwards, and so became the country＇s sole international financial intermediary as official exchange reserves exploded Because of the currency mismatch, floating the RMB is neither feasible nor desirable, and a higher RMB would not reduce China＇ s trade surplus. Instead, monetary control and normal private-sector finance for the trade surplus require a return to a credibly fixed nominal RMB/USD rate similar to that which existed between 1995 and 2004. However, for any newly reset RMB/USD rate to be credible as a monetary anchor, foreign ＂China bashing＂ to get the RMB up must end. Then the stage would be set for fiscal expansion to both stimulate the economy and reduce its trade surplus.