Über einN-elementiges Modell der Reiz-Stichproben-Theorie mit stetigem Zeitparameter und zwei Antwortklassen

Zusammenfassung Es wird ein Modell der Reiz-Stichproben-Theorie [vgl.Atkinson u.Estes] mit stetigem Zeitparameter untersucht. Dabei handelt es sich um ein sogenanntes Pattern-Modell mitN Reizelementen und zwei Antwortklassen. Die den Systemablauf beherrschenden Differentialgleichungen werden hergeleitet und gel?st. Es werden Resultate über das Grenzverhalten der verknüpften stochastischen Prozesse erzielt, insbesonders über den effektiven Antwortproze?. Ferner werden Methoden zur Punktsch?tzung der unbekannten ParameterN (Anzahl der Reizelemente) undc (Lernrate) behandelt.

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Summary A model of stimulus sampling theory [cp.Atkinson andEstes] with continuous time parameter is investigated. We are concerned with a so-called pattern model withN stimulus elements and two response classes. The differential equations governing the system are derived and solved. Some results on the limit behaviour of associated stochastic processes are obtained, concerning especially the actual response process. Furtheron methods are treated for point estimation of the unknown parametersN (number of stimulus elements) andc (learning rate).

     

Anne Booth (ed.), The Oil Boom and After:Indonesian Economic Policy and Performance in the Soeharto Era

Anne Booth (ed.), The Oil Boom and After: Indonesian Economic Policy and Performance in the Soeharto Era, Singapore: Oxford University Press, 1992, pp. xxvi + 448 A$55.00.

     

Methods for analyzing decision-making: a framework approach

In political science an eternal question concerns how decisions and policies arise. Modern society, characterized by more uncertainty and complexity than before, increases the challenge of providing valid answers. However, the general lack of methodological concern in several previous studies in this area stresses the need for elaborations of more suitable approaches. In this article we add a methodological perspective that deals with this very question. By reviewing and analyzing earlier research on how decision-making is reached, the overall ambition of this article is to create a framework that can lay the methodological foundation for further studies. Such a framework, which takes into account both the complexity of modern multi-governance societies and adds methodological perspectives of macro and micro standpoints as well as of causal mechanisms, can be used in future research to achieve richer pictures of how decision-making is carried out. In addition, we show how a certain technique of analysis is highly compatible to this framework and that jointly these features provide solutions for a better understanding of the complexity of modern decision-making. All in all, applying this strategy can be used to better systematize complex causal chains that reflect different analytical levels and thereby increase leverage on how to understand and explain the process of political decisions.     

Konjunkturpakete versus Austeritätspolitik

We evaluate the impact of fiscal stimulus measures during the financial crisis and the subsequent turn to fiscal consolidation during the Euro Area crisis. Based on an exploitation of the information contained in systematic forecast errors, we identify a robust and substantial underestimation of the multiplier effects linked to these measures. Moreover the effects are highly persistent, pointing to hysteresis effects of fiscal measures during deep crises.     

Another Look at the East Asian Miracle

This article examines the main ingredients of the East Asiansuccess story in each subphase of its post-war transition growthprocess. It focuses mainly on Taiwan (China), with comparativeside glances at the Republic of Korea. The initial conditionsfacing the region were favorable, especially in Taiwan (China).The early import substitution subphase was unusually mild andcontributed to the emergence of strong linkages between agriculturaland nonagricultural activities. Subsequently, flexible labormarkets, human capital policies, and major macro and structuralpolicy reforms culminated in an increasingly export-orientedindustrialization effort. Once labor surpluses were ultimatelyexhausted, government policies accommodated Taiwan (China)'sentry into the technological era of the 1970s and 1980s. Duringthe past four decades of a signally successful transition growtheffort, public policies in East Asia have consistently accommodatedthe changing needs of the economy, rather than guide its pathdirectly.