Constant market shares analysis: uses,limitations and prospects*

In this paper, we generalise the constant market shares (CMS) framework, with particular attention to the underlying theoretical conditions required for diagnostic interpretation. The approach is applied to the analysis of the export performance of the Australian processed food sector in South‐East Asia over the period 1980–2003. We conclude that the usefulness of CMS analysis for evaluating a country's international trade performance depends upon the empirical validity of the aggregation assumptions implicit in the diagnostic interpretation.     

A note on generalized wald’s method

Let {v _n(θ)} be a sequence of statistics such that whenθ =θ ₀,v _n(θ ₀) N _p(0,Σ), whereΣ is of rankp andθ εR ^d. Suppose that underθ =θ ₀, {Σ _n} is a sequence of consistent estimators ofΣ. Wald (1943) shows thatv _n ^T (θ ₀)Σ _n ⁻¹ v _n(θ ₀) x ²(p). It often happens thatv _n(θ ₀) N _p(0,Σ) holds butΣ is singular. Moore (1977) states that under certain assumptionsv _n ^T (θ ₀)Σ _n ⁻ v _n(θ ₀) x ²(k), wherek = rank (Σ) andΣ _n ⁻ is a generalized inverse ofΣ _n. However, Moore’s result as stated is incorrect. It needs the additional assumption that rank (Σ _n) =k forn sufficiently large. In this article, we show that Moore’s result (as corrected) holds under somewhat different, but easier to verify, assumptions. Research partly supported by the U.S. Army Research Office through the Mathematical Sciences Institute at Cornell University.     

Climate change and Australia's comparative advantage in broadacre agriculture1

Australia has long been a major exporter of the products of broadacre agriculture, a production system well suited to the economic and climatic conditions of the country. Presumably, it holds a comparative advantage in these products, among which grain crops and grazing livestock predominate. However, the future plausibility of this proposition is sensitive to the projected impacts of climate change. This article develops a framework to quantify the future patterns of comparative advantage in broadacre agriculture, given the projections of several global climate models. We find empirical support for the conventional wisdom, and note substantial resilience and robustness in Australia's comparative advantage under a number of scenarios.     

An application of IDEA to wheat farming efficiency

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a nonparametric approach to evaluating the relative efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) that use multiple inputs to produce multiple outputs. An assumption underlying DEA is that all the data assume the form of specific numerical values. In some applications, however, the data may be imprecise. That is, all the input and output data cannot be exactly obtained due to the existence of uncertainty. They are only known to lie within specified intervals. A DEA model with imprecise data or, more compactly, an Imprecise DEA (IDEA) model proposed in this article to evaluate efficiency for each DMU. The article is illustrated with an application to Iranian wheat producer provinces.     

Oil exports and the Iranian economy

This paper presents an error-correcting macroeconometric model for the Iranian economy estimated using a new quarterly data set over the period 1979Q1–2006Q4. It builds on a recent paper by the authors, Esfahani, Mohaddes, and Pesaran (in press), which develops a theoretical long-run growth model for major oil exporting economies. The core variables included in this paper are real output, real money balances, inflation, exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, although the role of investment and consumption are also analysed in a sub-model. The paper finds clear evidence for the existence of two long-run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy for the (missing) market interest rate. The results show that real output in the long run is influenced by oil exports and foreign output. However, it is also found that inflation has a significant negative long-run effect on real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies and is matched by a negative association between inflation and the investment–output ratio. Finally, the results of impulse responses show that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports, which could be partly due to the relatively underdeveloped nature of Iran's financial markets.     

The Sustainability of Indonesia's Upland Conservation Projects

The Upland Agricultural and Conservation Project in Central and East Java is representative of Indonesia's upland conservation efforts. An important component of the project was the use of subsidies to promote activities which increased farmer incomes and soil conservation. Two types of subsidies were used: an operating subsidy for annual inputs such as seed, fertiliser and pesticides; and a capital subsidy for terracing and related construction. This study measures the extent to which the effects of the subsidies were sustained over varying periods following termination of the project. The results show that the effects of the operating subsidies are clearly not sustainable; the effects of the capital subsidies may persist longer, but they too are probably not sustainable.     

Results on the past lifetime of (n ? k?+?1)-out-of-n structures with nonidentical components

We consider a (n − k + 1)-out-of-n system with independent and nonidentical components. Under the condition that at time t the system has failed we study the past lifetime of the components of the system. The mean past lifetime of the components is defined and some of its properties are investigated. Stochastic comparisons are also made between the past lifetime of different systems.     

Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: theoretical models and empirical evidence*

Over the past decades, growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) has stimulated significant attempts at developing theories that explain this trend. One line of this research explores the relationship between exchange rates and FDI. There is no consensus about the nature of this relationship in either the theoretical or empirical work. In this article, we critically appraise this body of work, and find the theoretical studies to be making ground in exploring the complexities of FDI, but the empirical evidence to be constrained by data problems.