Overreaction to Fearsome Risks

When risks threaten, cognitive mechanisms bias people toward action or inaction. Fearsome risks are highly available. The availability bias tells us that this leads people to overestimate their frequency. Therefore, they also overreact to curtail the likelihood or consequences of such risks. More generally, fear can paralyze efforts to think clearly about risks. We draw on a range of environmental risks to show the following: (1) Fear leads us to neglect probability of occurrence; (2) As fearsome environmental risks are usually imposed by others (as externalities), indignation stirs excess reaction; (3) We often misperceive or miscalculate such risks. Two experiments demonstrate probability neglect when fearsome risks arise: (a) willingness-to-pay to eliminate the cancer risk from arsenic in water (described in vivid terms) did not vary despite a 10-fold variation in risk; (b) the willingness-to-accept price for a painful but non dangerous electric shock did not vary between a 1 and 100% chance. Possible explanations relate to the role of the amygdala in impairing cognitive brain function. Government and the law, both made by mortals and both responding to public pressures, similarly neglect probabilities for fearsome risks. Examples relating to shark attacks, Love Canal, alar and terrorism are discussed.     

Joint determination of biological encephalization,economic specialization

In this paper, we develop a paleoeconomic model of the co-evolution of economic specialization and encephalization—the common physiological measure of intelligence as reflected by brain mass relative to total body mass. Our economic analysis links ecological and social intelligence theories of increased encephalization in early hominins through a model in which both economic and ecological feedbacks jointly determined the evolutionary incentives. We focus on degrees of specialization affected by coordination costs with and without market exchange. Our results suggest encephalization would be a process characterized by diminishing returns to behavioral advances. In terms of the long-running debate in economics over whether specialization increases or decreases intelligence, our results suggest from an evolutionary perspective the answer depends on economic/social institutions and how these influence ecological interactions.     

Board Gender Diversity: Challenges and Implications for Corporations in the East African Community

ABSTRACT

East African Community’s (EAC) corporations are required to follow a regional treaty of mainstreaming gender equality. This article discusses challenges encountered by corporate boards of the EAC’s corporations when adding women. Agency and resource dependence theories led the study, while a review of the literature was the methodology. We discuss the benefits of diverse boards and challenges faced when developing this diversity. We show how power distance, masculinity, and certainty avoidance prevent women from corporate boards. Furthermore, we discuss how social orientation and business environment impact women’s participation. The article discusses various strategies to be considered for increasing diversity.     

Investor Overreaction to Earnings Surprises and Post‐Earnings‐Announcement Reversals

Prior literature suggests that the market underreacts to the positive correlation in a typical firm's seasonal earnings changes, which leads to a post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD) in prices. We examine the market reaction for a distinct set of firms whose seasonal earnings changes are uncorrelated and show that the market incorrectly assumes that the earnings changes of these firms are positively correlated. We also document that positive (negative) seasonal earnings changes in the current quarter are associated with negative (positive) abnormal returns in the next quarter. Thus, we observe a reversal of abnormal returns, consistent with a systematic overreaction to earnings, rather than the previously documented PEAD. Additional analysis indicates that financial analysts similarly overestimate the autocorrelation of these firms, although to a lesser extent. We also find that the magnitude of overestimation and the subsequent price reversal are inversely related to the richness of the information environment. Our results challenge the notion that investors recognize but consistently underestimate earnings correlation and provide a new perspective on the inability of prices to fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings. That is, we show that investors predictably overestimate correlation when it is lacking, but underestimate it when it is present.     

Children aged 9-14 living in disadvantaged areas in England: Opportunities and barriers for cycling

The aim of this paper is to take a holistic perspective to explore levels of cycling and opportunities and barriers to increase children’s safer cycling in disadvantaged areas in England. The study was one part of a larger study which explored the factors underlying the high level of road traffic casualties especially among children in the most disadvantaged areas of England and to explore how this impacts on mobility and quality of life. The methods involved a cross sectional survey comprising school based questionnaire surveys with children aged 9-14 and focus groups with parents who had children within this age range. The surveys were conducted in 2007 and the focus groups during 2008. 4286 children completed the survey and eight focus groups were held. Bike ownership (77%) was high, use in previous week moderate (39%) but only 2% cycled to school. Ownership was significantly lower in minority ethnic groups. Despite young children’s strong preference to travel by cycle (30%) than walk or go by car, most parents felt it was too hazardous. It is unlikely that these findings would be any different from the rest of England, however the combination of environmental and social factors may elevate the risks for young cyclists in these areas. This paper concludes that a number of barriers exist to increasing levels of cycling among children living in disadvantaged areas particularly amongst ethnic groups. These barriers could be addressed by environmental modifications to reduce speeds and by reducing the levels of antisocial driving and riding in residential areas and around destinations where children travel, by providing cycle training to improve children’s skills and parent’s confidence, and by providing secure storage facilities for bikes. Until these barriers are addressed it is unlikely that cycling will increase despite the strong preferences children have to travel by bike. Such preferences to cycle provide an opportunity for local authorities to act on.     

Managing Public IP with Downstream Interfirm Research Spillovers

The paper examines the economic impact of pricing and access to public basic research‐related intellectual property (IP) in the presence of downstream interfirm spillovers using a Salop circle model of monopolistic competition. Depending on the nature and extent of spillovers and with free access to upstream basic research, firm entry can be excessive, insufficient, or socially optimal. When interfirm lump‐sum spillovers are absent or sufficiently small, competitive entry is excessive, so policies that restrict access to basic research IP can enhance social welfare. When lump‐sum research spillovers are sufficiently large, policies to induce entry and a clustering of downstream research activity can be welfare enhancing. Le présent article examine, à l’aide du modèle de Salop de concurrence monopolistique positionnant les firmes sur un cercle, l’impact économique de l’attribution d’une valeur à la propriété intellectuelle de la recherche fondamentale financée par des fonds publics et de l’accès à cette recherche lorsqu’il y a des retombées entre firmes en aval. Selon la nature et l’étendue des retombées et compte tenu de l’accès gratuit à la recherche fondamentale en amont, l’entrée de firmes peut‐être excessive, insuffisante ou optimale sur le plan social. Lorsque les débordements de la recherche vers d’autres firmes sont absents ou faibles, le niveau d’entrée de concurrence parfaite est excessif. Dans ce cas, les politiques qui restreignent l’accès à la recherche fondamentale financée par des fonds publics peuvent accroître le bien‐être social. Lorsque les débordements de la recherche sont assez importants, les politiques mises en ?uvre pour encourager l’entrée et le regroupement des activités de recherche en amont peuvent améliorer le bien‐être.     

Toxic hazard reduction with passive mitigation systems

A major component of the United States Environmental Protection Agency's 112(r) Risk Management Program Rule is the evaluation and control of potential public exposures to toxic chemicals. The rule requires identification and evaluation of a worst case accidental toxic release scenario, but provides for the inclusion of passive mitigation systems in modeling the dispersion hazard zones that are to be communicated to the public. These passive mitigation systems can be taken into account in the consequence modeling if they will withstand the initiating event that causes the accidental release and function as intended. This paper discusses several passive mitigation systems that can be designed as an integral part of storage or processing of highly toxic chemicals. These include, but are not limited to, optimizing storage conditions, design of secondary containment, toxic vapor generation control, and enclosure design. The effectiveness of various passive mitigation systems is evaluated using consequence modeling for case studies involving highly toxic chemicals such as phosgene, chlorine, and ethylene oxide.     

Why do employees keep choosing the high-premium health care plan? An investigation of the financial consequences and logic of employee health care plan selections

In 1991, Dannon employees had the choice to stay with their current health care plan or switch to a new plan which offered a lower premium and less hospital cost coverage that better fit the needs of most employees. Both plans were the same in all other respects. Only 25% of employees chose the new lower-premium plan over the old plan. This article reports a collaborative effort between The Dannon Company and Cornell University's Center for Advanced HR Studies to identify the patterns of employee choices, and the effects of those choices on the actual costs that employees incurred. The actual decisions of 287 Dannon employees were examined, and the out-of-pocket costs that they actually incurred in the two years after the plan was introduced were calculated. © 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.