Persistent deficits and the market value of government debt

This paper investigates whether postwar Canadian public financial policy satisfies a borrowing constraint. Direct tests of the present-value relation suggested by this constraint shed light on the sustainability of current policy. We examine monthly data on Canadian federal government finances using tests for cointegration. The finding is that the joint behaviour of real debt and real surpluses is inconsistent with intertemporal budget balance for the government. One interpretation of this finding is that the government is systematically paying real returns to bondholders by issuing further debt. Alternatively, bondholders may expect the government to finance future interest payments from a source other than primary surpluses, e.g. the sale of physical assets.     

Why People Play at Work: A Theoretical Examination of Leisure-at-Work

ABSTRACT

Postmodern perspectives on work and leisure acknowledge the interwoven nature of these domains, an example being the increasing number of organizations intentionally incorporating leisure into the employee experience. Existing research, however, provides no specific theoretical guidance regarding the potential impacts of strategically integrating recreation activities into the work domain. Thus, based on positive organizational scholarship and leisure science theories, we build an individual level model describing the phenomenon of leisure-at-work (LAW). We propose LAW activities have the ability to produce feelings of personal expressiveness at work as moderated by employees' perceptions of the activities. Personal expressiveness then mediates LAW activities' ability to promote the development of organizational commitment, work engagement, and resilience among employees.     

Organizational Learning in Tourism Crisis Management: An Experience From Malaysia

Tourism and related organizations are dealing with crises either based on a specific crisis management plan, contingency planning, designed guideline, or ad hoc response. These organizations learn from crises in different ways, but no mechanisms have been explored to indicate how these organizations learn within the framework of Tourism Crisis Management (TCM). Among various reasons is limited systematic research that has been undertaken in this area. This study addresses this gap in our current knowledge by proposing a model for analyzing and developing organizational learning within the framework of TCM. The study shows the perceptions of 25 key players in Malaysia’s tourism industry on the role of organizational learning in managing crises. The findings also revealed that organizational learning is subject to negligence and few key practitioners thinking about in-depth learning from the crisis management perspectives.     

Measuring and forecasting retail trade in real time using card transactional data

We build big data retail trade indicators for Spain using high-dimensional card transaction data from one of the country’s biggest banks. The resulting indicators replicate the dynamics of the Spanish retail trade indices (RTI), regional RTIs (Spain’s autonomous regions), and RTI by retailer type (distribution classes) released by the Spanish National Statistics Institute. The new indicators not only have a higher frequency (daily data) and higher geographical and sectorial breakdown but are also shown to improve nowcasting and forecasting power for the official RTI, making them key variables to monitor consumption.     

Kicking Away the Ladder,Too: Inside Central Banks

Central banks are evolving institutions. In developed countries, particularly in Britain, central banks were used as instruments of the state to finance government and to promote economic development. However, once they went up the economic ladder, advanced economies kicked it to preclude developing countries from climbing it, too. It is in this context that the modern independent central bank, concerned with inflation targeting alone, which harkens back to the Victorian era, should be interpreted. This paper analyzes the recent evolution of the Argentine central bank in this broad historical perspective.