Explaining Real Commercial Rents Using an Error Correction Model with Panel Data

This paper presents rent models for retail and office property in the United Kingdom. Panel data are used covering eleven regions for 29 years, enabling us to overcome the limitations of a relatively short time series. We use an error correction model (ECM) framework to estimate long-run equilibrium relationships and short-term dynamic corrections. The combination of panel data and an ECM is an innovative approach that is still being developed in economics. We construct new supply series that combine infrequent stock data with more frequent construction data. Separate regional models are estimated for retail and office properties. The regions are then combined into a number of panels on the basis of the income and price elasticities in the long-run and short-run models. Unlike previous studies, we find no evidence of a board north–south divide between low growth and high growth regions. Like these studies we do find a London effect: in London, demand elasticities for space with respect to both price (rent) and income are much lower in magnitude. We conclude that, while the economic drivers may vary, there is no evidence of differences in the operation of the regional property markets outside London. Elasticities for retail and office are similar. Our final models are parsimonious with single measures of economic activity and of supply and always support the use of an ECM.     

General Editor’s Note: Antitrust and Regulatory Update

Review of Industrial Organization -     

The Impact of Ambiguity on Managerial Investment and Cash Holdings

Standard finance theory suggests that managers invest in projects that, in expectation, produce returns that justify the use of capital. An underlying assumption is that managers have the information necessary to understand the distributional properties of the pay‐offs underlying the decision. This paper examines firm investment behavior when managers are likely to find it more challenging to develop expectations of pay‐offs, namely during periods of increased macroeconomic ambiguity. In particular, we examine how macroeconomic ambiguity – proxied by the variance premium (Drechsler, 2010 ) and the dispersion in forecasts of corporate profits from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (Anderson et al., 2009 ) – impacts managerial capital investment and cash holdings. Consistent with ambiguity theory, we find that macroeconomic ambiguity is negatively associated with capital investment and positively associated with cash holdings. These results are robust to alternative explanations related to risk, investor sentiment and economic conditions. Moreover, consistent with recent theoretical real options literature, we find that ambiguity reduces the value of investment opportunities, while risk increases the value of such opportunities. Overall, these findings provide initial empirical evidence on the economic distinction between ambiguity and risk with respect to managerial investment and cash holdings.     

How does the availability and use of flexible leave influence the employer–employee relationship?

In this article, we develop, and empirically test, a moderated mediation model of the effects of flexible leave on employees' organizational attachment. Drawing on a social exchange framework and signaling theory, we explore how the material and non-material nature of exchange between the employer and employee shapes their relationship. First, we show that the relationship between the availability of flexible leave and organizational attachment is shaped by two competing mediators, perceived organizational support (POS) and perceived flexibility stigma. Second, we delineate between availability and use of the policy, to show how the effect of POS is enhanced and perceived flexibility stigma reduced, with use. Our findings demonstrate that the relationship between the availability of flexible leave and organizational attachment is complex, but is enhanced through use of flexible leave. We contribute toward HRM scholarship about the relationship between employees' experience of HR practices and their corresponding impact on employees' subsequent behavior.     

A consistent characteristic function-based test for conditional independence

Y is conditionally independent of Z given X   if Pr{f(y|X,Z)=f(y|X)}=1$\{f(y|X,Z)=f(y|X)\}=1$ for all y on its support, where f(·|·)$f(·|·)$ denotes the conditional density of Y   given (X,Z)$(X,Z)$ or X.$X.$ This paper proposes a nonparametric test of conditional independence based on the notion that two conditional distributions are equal if and only if the corresponding conditional characteristic functions are equal. We extend the test of Su and White (2005. A Hellinger-metric nonparametric test for conditional independence. Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, UCSD) in two directions: (1) our test is less sensitive to the choice of bandwidth sequences; (2) our test has power against deviations on the full support of the density of (X,Y,Z$X,Y,Z$). We establish asymptotic normality for our test statistic under weak data dependence conditions. Simulation results suggest that the test is well behaved in finite samples. Applications to stock market data indicate that our test can reveal some interesting nonlinear dependence that a traditional linear Granger causality test fails to detect.     

Museum pricing: challenges to theory development and practice

• The museum sector has undergone considerable change in the last few decades, which has been a result of both internal and external forces. The topic of pricing in museums, however, has attracted little interest from researchers in the field despite the sector's need to understand it better. This study aimed to address this gap in knowledge. Results of a comprehensive literature review on pricing highlight that the topic of pricing in museums is problematic, as a range of issues, social, political and often value-laden, must be considered before pricing decisions can be made. The study highlights that there is diversity in the sector with regard to pricing, but that museums generally adopt a unilateral approach to pricing. Researchers in entrepreneurial marketing have noted that conventional pricing theory is being turned on its head and they argue that deciding what prices to charge represents one of the more entrepreneurial strategies for organisations. This study indicates that, within the context of museums, marketers are failing to recognise and capitalise on such pricing opportunities. Approaches to setting multiple museum pricing strategies, depending on the market context, are proposed in this paper. In this way, knowledge of museum pricing can optimise the organisational outcomes of museums while continuing to meet their social responsibilities.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Crash of 1882 and the Bailout of the Paris Bourse

The crash of the French stock market in 1882 presented the Paris Bourse with its worst crisis of the nineteenth century. Its structure was similar in key respects to today’s futures markets, with a dominant forward market leading the Bourse to adopt a common fund to guarantee transactions and liquidity. While this mutualization of risk protects clients and brokers from idiosyncratic shocks, it is generally assumed that it also provides considerable protection against systemic shocks, as no twentieth century exchange has been forced to shut down. Using new archival data, this paper shows how a stock market crash overwhelmed the Bourse’s common fund. Only an emergency loan from the Bank of France, intermediated by the largest banks, prevented a closure of the Bourse.

The safety attitudes of people who use multi-purpose recreation facilities as a physical activity setting

Multi-purpose recreation facilities (MPRFs) are a popular setting for physical activity and it is therefore important that they are safe for all patrons. However, the attitudes of MPRF users towards safety are a potential barrier to the success of injury prevention programmes implemented within MPRFs. This article reports a survey of the safety attitudes of over 700 users of four indoor MPRFs. Factor analysis of 12 five-point Likert scale statements showed that the attitudes clustered around three major dimensions - the importance of safety, the benefits of safety and the perceptions of injury risk. Together, these three dimensions accounted for 49% of the variability in the attitudes. More than 85% of respondents agreed/strongly agreed that: safety was an important aspect of physical activity participation; being injured affected enjoyment of physical activity; people should adopt appropriate safety measures for all physical activity; and individuals were responsible for their own safety. The MPRF users, particularly women and older people, were generally safety conscious, believed in adopting safety measures, and were willing to take responsibility for their own safety. Facility managers can be confident that if they provide evidence-based injury prevention interventions in these settings, then users will respond appropriately and adopt the promoted behaviours.     

ENVIRONMENTAL FINANCE: VALUE AND RISK IN AN AGE OF ECOLOGY

Environmental issues are restructuring markets and redirecting capital flows throughout the world. An outline is provided of concerns facing the development of an environmentally responsible or ‘environmental finance’ perspective. It reviews the major ways in which organizations are responding to environmental threats and opportunities in the three major branches of finance — corporate finance, investments and financial institutions — highlighting in particular novel programs and initiatives. In the past, financial concerns have exacerbated the degradation of the natural environment; in the future, they probably hold the key to their preservation.