Sequential and multinomial logit: A nested model

A nested model is presented which has both the sequential and the multinomial logit model as special cases. This model provides a simple test to investigate the validity of these specifications. Some theoretical properties of the model are discussed. During the analysis a distribution function is derived, which, to the best of our knowledge, has not been used before. This distribution is shown to be a generalization of the typeI extreme-value distribution. Monte Carlo experiments and empirical applications of the model are presented.     

How accurate are government forecasts of economic fundamentals? The case of Taiwan

A government’s ability to forecast key economic fundamentals accurately can affect business confidence, consumer sentiment, and foreign direct investment, among others. A government forecast based on an econometric model is replicable, whereas one that is not fully based on an econometric model is non-replicable. Governments typically provide non-replicable forecasts (or expert forecasts) of economic fundamentals, such as the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate.In this paper, we develop a methodology for evaluating non-replicable forecasts. We argue that in order to do so, one needs to retrieve from the non-replicable forecast its replicable component, and that it is the difference in accuracy between these two that matters. An empirical example to forecast economic fundamentals for Taiwan shows the relevance of the proposed methodological approach. Our main finding is that the undocumented knowledge of the Taiwanese government reduces forecast errors substantially.     

Finding Form: Looking at the Field of Organizational Aesthetics

abstract Organizational research has long focused on the instrumental sphere with its questions of efficiency and effectiveness and in recent decades there has been interest in the moral sphere with its questions of ethics. Within the last decade there has also emerged a field that draws on the aesthetic sphere of our existence in organizations. In this review we look at the field of organizational aesthetics in terms of content and method, suggesting four broad categories of organizational aesthetics research: intellectual analysis of instrumental issues, artistic form used to look at instrumental issues, intellectual analysis of aesthetic issues, and artistic form used to look at aesthetic issues. We then suggest how organizational scholars might pursue artistic aesthetic organizational research.     

Fifty years since Koyck (1954)*

This paper shows that Koyck (1954)’s PhD thesis amounts to one of the very important innovations in econometrics. The model and the associated transformation are still used in classrooms and in academic articles. His book is one of the most often cited econometrics publications of the 1950s, and still receives its share of citations. It remains a source of inspiration for present‐day researchers. To sum up, it amounts to one of the most influential Dutch publications on econometrics.     

A multi‐level panel STAR model for US manufacturing sectors

We introduce a multi‐level smooth transition model for a panel of time series, which can be used to examine the presence of common nonlinear business cycle features across many variables. The model is positioned in between a fully pooled model, which imposes such common features, and a fully heterogeneous model, which allows for unrestricted nonlinearity. We introduce a second‐stage model linking the parameters that determine the timing of the switches between business cycle regimes to observable explanatory variables, thereby allowing for lead–lag relationships across panel members. We discuss representation, estimation by concentrated simulated maximum likelihood and inference. We illustrate our model using quarterly industrial production in 19 US manufacturing sectors, and document that there are subtle differences across sectors in leads and lags for switches between business cycle recessions and expansions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Managing innovative R&D teams

Successful R&D groups not only generate innovative ideas, but also transfers these newly created concepts through the organizational system for economic gain. While innovation is not a random process, managers often argue that R&D performance is hard to measure and even more difficult to manage. An exploratory field study into technology-oriented R&D environments determines the principle factors that influence innovation-based performance of R&D teams. The results identify specific barriers and drivers to innovative team performance and provide insight into the type of an organizational environment and managerial leadership that is conducive to innovative R&D team performance. The data further suggest that many of the performance variables have their locus outside the R&D organization. Yet, managerial leadership style, both at the R&D team level and at senior management, has significant impact on creativity that ultimately affects R&D performance.     

(Non-)existence and Scope of Nash Networks

For the connections model of strategic network formation, with two-way flow of information and without information decay, specific parameter configurations are given for which Nash networks do not exist. Moreover, existence and the scope of Nash network architectures are briefly discussed. We would like to thank two referees for helpful comments.     

Networks: Between markets and hierarchies

Interorganizational networks generally have been discussed in the context of nonprofit agencies. Providing an alternative between the open market and the internalization of activity the network potentially may be even more important in business. This is especially true in international operations and in industrial and services marketing. Involving technology transfer, information exchange, accounting and finance as well as marketing, network management calls for a holistic approach. To serve as an engine of growth the network also requires strategic planning both at the overall level and in member firms.