Der prognostische Gehalt der Nachrichtenwert-Theorie

In this article, news value theory is reformulated in a way that allows for predicting the length of news stories by the news value of news factors, and by the news factors of single stories. From a part of a sample, the news value of news factors is determined, and the expected length of stories is calculated for another part of the sample. Calculated length is then compared with measured length. There is a correlation of r =.54 between theoretical and empirical values. Theoretical and methodological conclusions are drawn from the results of the various analytic steps.     

Estimating Transition Probabilities from a Time Series of Independent Cross Sections

This paper considers the implementation of a nonstationary, heterogeneous Markov model for the analysis of a binary dependent variable in a time series of independent cross sections. The model, previously considered by M offitt (1993), offers the opportunity to estimate entry and exit transition probabilities and to examine the effects of time-constant and time-varying covariates on the hazards. We show how ML estimates of the parameters can be obtained by Fisher's method-of-scoring and how to estimate both fixed and time-varying covariate effects. The model is exemplified with an analysis of the labor force participation decision of Dutch women using data from the Socio-economic Panel (SEP) study conducted in the Netherlands between 1986 and 1995. We treat the panel data as independent cross sections and compare the employment status sequences predicted by the model with the observed sequences in the panel. Some open problems concerning the application of the model are also discussed.     

Tax contracts and elections

In this paper we examine the impact of tax contracts as a novel institution on elections, policies, and welfare. We consider a political game in which three parties compete to form the government and voters may behave strategically. Parties have policy preferences about the level of public-good provision and benefit from perks when in office. A government raises taxes for both purposes. We show that tax contracts yield moderate policies and lead to lower perks by avoiding the formation of grand coalitions in order to win government. Moreover, in polarized societies they unambiguously improve the welfare of the median voter.     

Comparing spatial concentration and assessing relative market structure in air traffic

Traffic distributions of air traffic and their concentration have been measured through Gini, an index that contrasts in many ways with other more established ones, such as Herfindahl's. This research is extended in the sense that it perceives spatial concentration in air transport as an aggregate of complex networks that are subject to multiple constraints, such as geopolitics or technology. We propose a multi-layered analytic approach where network operators are economic agents that behave in strategic ways. It allows for comparing air traffic between airports in Europe with that of the US and, in particular, introduces a normative component by isolating patterns in airlines' strategies that coincide with more or less welfare-oriented degrees of spatial concentration in light of the above constraints.     

An input approach to European comparative advantage in advanced products: A study with special emphasis on The Netherlands

Zusammenfassung Eine Input-orientierte Untersuchung der komparativen Vorteile Europas bei fortgeschrittenen Erzeugnissen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Niederlande.- Die Autoren zeigen, da\ die EG-L?nder - und besonders die Niederlande - im Laufe der siebziger Jahre den Vorsprung verringerten, den die Vereinigten Staaten ihnen gegenüber in der Verfügbarkeit von Humankapital hatten, das mittelfristig ein wichtiger Produktionsfaktor für eine solide Wettbewerbsposition der fortgeschrittenen Sektoren ist. Dagegen wurde auf dem Gebiet der Forschung und Entwicklung, das für die langfristige Wettbewerbsposition entscheidend ist, der Vorsprung Japans vor den USA und den EG-L?ndern (und besonders vor den Niederlanden) in den siebziger Jahren sogar noch gr?\er. Das sollte bedacht werden, wenn in der EG und vor allem in den Niederlanden z. B. eine Industriepolitik entworfen wird.

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Résumé Une approche d’input des avantages comparatifs européens en biens avancés: Une étude particulièrement sur les Pays Bas. - Les auteurs démontrent que pendant les années soixante-dix les pays CE - et particulièrement les Pays Bas - mitigaient l’avantage des E.U. concernant la disponibilité du capital humain comme facteur essentiel de production pour une solide position compétitive à moyen terme. Regardant recherche et développement comme facteurs essentiels pour la position compétitive à long terme, cependant, l’avance de Japon vis-à-vis les E.U. et les pays CE - et particulièrement les Pays Bas - même s’accr?t dans les années soixante-dix. Ce développement doit être considéré si l’on formule par example des politiques industrielles dans la CE et particulièrement aux Pays Bas.

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Resumen Los insumos en las ventajas comparativas de Europa en productos sofisticados: Un estudio con el énfasis en los Países Bajos. - Los autores demuestran que en los aftos 70 los paises de la CEE, particularmente los Países Bajos, lograron reducir la ventaja que les Uevan los EEUU en cuanto a la dotación con capital humano, que es un factor de producción esencial para llegar an una posición de competencia sólida en el mercado de productos avanzados. En investigación y desarrollo, que constituye un factor crucial para la posición competitiva de largo plazo en este campo, empero, la ventaja que le lleva el Japón a los EEUU y a la CEE y, particularmente, a los Países Bajos llegó a aumentar en los a?os 70. Esto debería ser tomado en cuenta cuando se formulen, por ejemplo, políticas industriales en la CEE y en los Países Bajos en particular.

     

Pricing Perpetual Options for Jump Processes

Abstract

We consider two models in which the logarithm of the price of an asset is a shifted compound Poisson process. Explicit results are obtained for prices and optimal exercise strategies of certain perpetual American options on the asset, in particular for the perpetual put option. In the first model in which the jumps of the asset price are upwards, the results are obtained by the martingale approach and the smooth junction condition. In the second model in which the jumps are downwards, we show that the value of the strategy corresponding to a constant option-exercise boundary satisfies a certain renewal equation. Then the optimal exercise strategy is obtained from the continuous junction condition. Furthermore, the same model can be used to price certain reset options. Finally, we show how the classical model of geometric Brownian motion can be obtained as a limit and also how it can be integrated in the two models.