Is the institutionalization of urban movements inevitable? A comparison of the opportunities for sustained squatting in New York City and Amsterdam

In this article the opportunity structures of New York City and Amsterdam for organized squatting are compared. New York City knew two distinct squatting waves, with an intermission of several years. The literature on US urban movements predicts transformation through cooptation and repression. Only the first wave, in which housing activists used squatting as a tactic, fits this prediction. The second wave of squatting in New York City, and squatting in Amsterdam in general, escaped cooptation because they involved a squatters' movement proper, in which squatting was not only a tactic but also central to its existence. Compared to Amsterdam, squatting in New York was hampered by technical difficulties and political isolation. Stricter protection of private property made New York squatters restrict themselves to publicly‐owned abandoned buildings. Turf conflicts tended to develop on the neighbourhood level when these buildings were later claimed for the development of low‐income housing. In Amsterdam this type of conflict was rare because of the broad support for low‐income (re)development. Instead, Amsterdam saw citywide protest directed at the real estate sector and municipal authorities. Cet article compare la structure des opportunités des villes de New York et Amsterdam concernant les squats organisés. New York a connu deux vagues de squattage séparées de plusieurs années. Les textes sur les mouvements urbains aux Etats‐Unis prévoient une mutation par cooptation et répression. Seule la première vague, pour laquelle les militants en faveur du logement ont utilisé le squattage comme tactique, répond à cette prédiction. La seconde vague d'opérations à New York, et celles d'Amsterdam en général, ont échappéà la cooptation, car il s'agissait de mouvements de squatters à proprement parler, où le squat n'était pas seulement une tactique mais surtout un fondement de leur existence. Comparéà Amsterdam, le squattage à New York s'est heurtéà des problèmes techniques et à un isolement politique. La protection plus stricte de la propriété privée a forcé les squatters new‐yorkais à se limiter aux bâtiments publics abandonnés. Des luttes de territoires ont eu tendance à se développer entre voisins lorsque ces bâtiments ont ensuite été réclamés pour aménager des logements à faible loyer. A Amsterdam, rare fut ce genre de conflit grâce au vaste soutien favorable au (ré)aménagement social; au contraire, une protestation générale s'est élevée à l'encontre du secteur immobilier et des autorités municipales.     

Foreign Factor Ownership and Optimal Tariffs

In the presence of foreign factor ownership tariffs change not only the terms of (goods) trade but also income flows between countries. Assume that only the home country owns factors abroad. Then the optimal tariff is negative if and only if foreign factor ownership entails trade-pattern reversals. Trade-pattern reversals are neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for a negative optimal tariff if the foreign country owns factors in the home country. Changes in the home country's tariff shift the foreign country's offer curve. This adds a new dimension to optimal tariff analysis.     

Project Evaluation and Uncertainty in Practice: A Statistical Analysis of Rate-of-Return Divergences of 1,015 World Bank Projects

This article analyzes the World Bank's experience with projectevaluation for a sample of 1,015 projects by comparing estimatedrates of return at appraisal with reestimated rates of returnwhen construction works are completed, usually 5 to 10 yearsafter appraisal. The analysis highlights the high degree ofuncertainty in project analysis. A wide range of variables hasbeen introduced to explain the observed divergence in appraisaland reestimated rates of return, but only a relatively smallpart of the divergence can be explained, even with the benefitof hindsight. Project analysis thus has to cope with a largedegree of uncertainty, which the traditional methods of projectevaluation and selection have not been able to reduce.     

Government Policy and the Evolution of the Market for Dutch Daily Newspapers

This paper investigates whether governments can change market structures through interventions. We study the effects of four political events over the life cycle of the market for daily newspapers in the Netherlands. We find that policy measures meant to lower entry barriers in an expanding industry created new entry and increased survival chances for potential entrants and incumbent newspapers. Exit barrier enhancing policies to reduce concentration tendencies have not been successful.     

General‐to‐Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions*

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper, we propose general‐to‐specific (Gets) model selection procedures to overcome these limitations. It is shown that single‐equation procedures are generally efficient for the reduction of recursive SVAR models. The small‐sample properties of the proposed reduction procedure (as implemented using PcGets) are evaluated in a realistic Monte Carlo experiment. The impulse responses generated by the selected SVAR are found to be more precise and accurate than those of the unrestricted VAR. The proposed reduction strategy is then applied to the US monetary system considered by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, pp. 16–34, 1996) . The results are consistent with the Monte Carlo and question the validity of the impulse responses generated by the full system.     

On the adequacy of single‐stock futures margining requirements

Unlike the traditional futures contract risk‐based approach to margining, new security futures contracts are margined under a strategy‐based margining system similar to that which applies in the equity options markets. As a result, these new margin requirements are potentially much less sensitive to changes in market conditions. This article performs a simulation to evaluate whether these alternative margining methodologies can be expected to produce comparable outcomes. The analysis suggests that a 1‐day settlement period will likely lead to collection of customer margins that are virtually always greater than that which its traditional risk‐based counterpart would require. A 4‐day settlement period would lead to margin requirements that both significantly under‐ and overmargin relative to a comparable risk‐based system. This study argues that exchanges may approach the preferred probability of customer exhaustion by managing margin settlement intervals. Thus, the new strategy‐based rules, in and of themselves, will not necessarily inhibit new security futures trading activity. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:989–1002, 2003     

Position limits for cash‐settled derivative contracts

Cash settlement of derivative contracts makes them susceptible to manipulation by traders who expect to close large positions upon final settlement. Cash settlement also increases underlying volatility when hedgers unwind their hedges if they have no incentives to control their trading costs. Limits on the positions that traders can carry into final settlement can be used to mitigate associated economic inefficiencies when surveillance is insufficient. This article develops a model that regulators can use to set these limits that is based upon microstructure theory. The empirical findings indicate that existing position limits are largely inconsistent with those suggested by the model. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:945–965, 2005     

Ist die Katharsis-Theorie zu retten?

Catharsis theory is regarded as refuted. This widespread belief can be questioned for two reasons. First, most test films used in experimental studies do not meet the requirements of catharsis theory; second the social consequences of catharsis were not measured. Two films were produced for our experiment, one which meets the requirements of catharsis theory and should reduce aggressiveness and one which, according to alternative theories, should increase aggressiveness. A control group saw a neutral film. As dependent variables (a) level of general aggression, (b) aggressive inclinations in social situations, and (c) willingness to use aggressive stereotypes were measured. The film that was assumed to reduce aggressiveness increased aggressiveness even more than the film that was assumed to increase it. This surprising finding and its consequences are discussed.