Valuing the implicit guarantee of the Federal National Mortgage Association

The paper analyzes the guarantee of the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA). Rather than try to price the guarantee, we used time-series estimates of its value from Kane and Foster to infer the behavior of FNMA in exploiting the guarantee. The results are consistent with a model that predicts that FNMA does not take as much risk as it might. Rather, it trades off risk and return, but it does increase risk and exploit the guarantee when it gets in trouble (as it did in 1981).We have received helpful research assistance from Peter Carr and Bruno Gerard.     

Loan Loss Severity and Optimal Mortgage Default

This paper tests the contingent claims model of mortgage default in its ruthless or frictionless form. The principal tests of the model are based on an unconventional source of data, namely, loan loss severities on defaulted mortgages. The frictionless model has well-defined predictions about loss severities which we test in detail. The data analyzed include a random sample of all mortgages originated during the period 1975–90 and purchased by Freddie Mac, as well as the loss severities on all mortgages purchased by Freddie Mac which defaulted during the period. The frictionless model does not do well in these tests.     

AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION: A Comparative Historical Perspective

The article provides a detailed comparative historical reviewof the patterns of agricultural mechanization by operation.The first section reemphasizes the major conclusions of theinduced innovation literature, and the second section showsthe remarkable similarity in the early mechanization experiencesof the developed and developing countries. New mechanical powersources were first used on power-intensive operations such asprocessing, pumping, transport, and tillage, while mechanizationof control-intensive operations came much later and usuallyin association with high wages. Finally, an investigation ofthe process of agricultural machinery innovation shows thatthe public sector and corporate research has contributed littleto machinery invention. Machinery innovation has generally beenthe domain of small manufacturers, with corporations becomingsignificant in later stages of product development and engineeringoptimization.      

Strategy-Proof Probabilistic Decision Schemes for One-Dimensional Single-Peaked Preferences

Collective decision problems are considered with a finite number of agents who have single-peaked preferences on the real line. A probabilistic decision scheme assigns a probability distribution over the real line to every profile of reported preferences. The main result of the paper is a characterization of the class of unanimous and strategy-proof probabilistic schemes with the aid of fixed probability distributions that play a role similar to that of the phantom voters in H. Moulin (Public Choice35 (1980), 437-455). Thereby, the work of Moulin (1980) is extended to the probabilistic framework. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D71, D81.     

Organigraphs: drawing how companies really work

Walk into any organization and you will get a snapshot of the company in action--people and products moving every which way. But ask for a picture of the company and you will be given the org chart, with its orderly little boxes showing just the names and titles of managers. Now there's a more revealing way to depict the people and operations within an organization--an approach called the organigraph. The organigraph is not a chart. It's a map that offers an overview of the company's functions and the ways that people organize themselves at work. Perhaps most important, an organigraph can help managers see untapped competitive opportunities. Drawing on the organigraphs they created for about a dozen companies, authors Mintzberg and Van der Heyden illustrate just how valuable a tool the organigraph is. For instance, one they created for Electrocomponents, a British distributor of electrical and mechanical items, led managers to a better understanding of the company's real expertise--business-to-business relationships. As a result of that insight, the company wisely decided to expand in Asia and to increase its Internet business. As one manager says, "It allowed the company to see all sorts of new possibilities." With traditional hierarchies vanishing and newfangled--and often quite complex--organizational forms taking their place, people are struggling to understand how their companies work. What parts connect to one another? How should processes and people come together? Whose ideas have to flow where? With their flexibility and realism, organigraphs give managers a new way to answer those questions.     

A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment

Two important empirical features of US unemployment are that shocks to the series seem rather persistent and that it seems to rise faster during recessions than that it falls during expansions. To jointly capture these features of long memory and nonlinearity, we put forward a new time series model and evaluate its empirical performance. We find that the model describes the data rather well and that it outperforms related competitive models on various measures of fit.     

Measuring Motivations for Media Exposure: A Thesis

The present article discusses the problem of separating the motivation conceptempirically from other relevant concepts in research on mass media audiences.For about half a century, audience researchers use questionnaire items with adistinct format as measurements of motivations for media exposure. It isargued that these motivation items grammatically reflect the nature of themotivation concept as a theoretically intermediate variable between behaviourand its social or mental background, thus constituting the most plausibleindicators of the concept. However, it is also argued that these questionnaireitems are double-barrelled and that any measurement of motivations based onthe items can largely be considered an ambiguous mixture of behaviour and itssocial or mental origin. A study is presented that provides empirical support for this position.     

Sector- and economy-wide effects of terminating the use of anti-microbial growth promoters in Denmark

In Denmark the poultry industry and the National Committee for Pig Production, together with the feedstuff industry, decided to voluntarily abolish the use of all Anti-microbial Growth Promoters (AGP). The poultry industry abolished the use of AGP from 15 February 1998 and the pig industry followed on 1 March 1998 (for pigs over 35 kg) and 1 January 2000 (for pigs under 35 kg). To evaluate the effects of the removal of AGP, data from both the poultry and pig industries were collected prior to and after the removal of AGP from animal feed. Utilizing these production data, this paper calculates economy-wide effects of the removal of AGP using the Agricultural Applied General Equilibrium (AAGE) model of the Danish economy. The results show that the long-term effects are a moderate decline in the production and export of pig meat, and a positive indirect effect on other industries including poultry due to lower rental rates for primary factor inputs. The overall implication is a small decline in real GDP of 0.03%, reducing public and private consumption by 68 DKK per capita per year in Denmark.