Multigeneration innovation diffusion and intergeneration time: A cautionary note

A recent JAMS article reported the following finding: the longer the time between the launch of two adjacent generations in the same product category, the lower the initial rate of adoption of the later generation but the higher its subsequent rate of growth. This note shows that these results could be a method artifact, since they vanish once one controls for differences in the length of the data series used to compute the initial and subsequent rates of growth. So, for the time being, it is premature to accept these intergeneration effects as genuine. Christophe Van de Bulte (Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University) (vdbulte@wharton.upenn.edu) is an assistant professor of marketing at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He holds an undergraduate degree in applied economics from the University of Antwerp, Belgium, and is a Fellow of the Belgian American Educational Foundation.His research focuses on new product diffusion and on the role of social networks in marketing settings, and has been published in theAmerican Journal of Sociology, theJournal of Marketing, Management Science, Marketing Science, and other journals. He serves on the editorial boards of theJournal of Business-to-Business Marketing andMarketing Science.     

NPD Planning Activities and Innovation Performance: The Mediating Role of Process Management and the Moderating Effect of Product Innovativeness

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of planning and control on the performance of new product development (NPD) projects. It is hypothesized that (1) thorough business planning at the beginning of a project creates a basis for proficient project and risk planning; (2) the proficiency of project planning, risk planning, and process management activities each improves innovation performance directly; (3) the relationship of planning and success is mediated by process management; and (4) the strength of these relationships is moderated by uncertainty, as determined by the degree of innovativeness. To test the hypotheses, data from 132 NPD projects were collected and analyzed. A measurement model was used to establish valid and reliable constructs, a path model to test the main effects, and a multiple-moderated regression analysis for the moderator hypotheses. The results suggest that the proficiency of project planning and process management is important predictors of NPD performance. Specifically, project risk planning and goal stability throughout the development process are found to enhance performance significantly. Business planning proves to be an important antecedent of the more development-related planning activities such as project planning and risk planning. Additionally, the results lend support to the hypotheses regarding the mediating role of process management in the planning–performance relationship. Project planning and risk planning support the quality of process management and thus impact NPD performance indirectly. Only to a limited extent are the strengths of these relationships moderated by the degree of innovativeness of the NPD project.     

Trade classification algorithms for electronic communications network trades

Ellis et al. [Ellis, K., Michaely, R., O’Hara, M., 2000. The accuracy of trade classification rules: Evidence from Nasdaq. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 35 (4), 529–551] find that trade classification rules have limited success in classifying trades which execute inside the quotes. We reconfirm this result and propose an alternative algorithm to improve the classification accuracy for trades inside the quotes. This alternative algorithm improves the overall success rate for classifying trades, especially for trades that occur inside the quotes. Additionally, we show that the Lee and Ready [Lee, C., Ready, M., 1991. Inferring trade direction from intraday data. Journal of Finance 46, 733–747] and Ellis et al. (2000) trade classification algorithms provide biased estimates of the actual effective spreads and price impacts, while our algorithm provides statistically unbiased estimates of actual effective spreads and price impacts.     

Modelling trends in food market integration: Method and an application to Tanzanian maize markets

Pushed by increasing availability of price data and extensive market liberalisation efforts in many developing countries, research on food market integration has evolved rapidly over the last two decades. Empirical methods to measure market integration diverged in two directions: on the one hand, there is the parity bounds model (PBM) using a switching regressions technique, while on the other hand the use of threshold autoregressive (TAR) models has been proposed. This article provides a discussion on the two methods and argues that TAR models are better able to capture the dynamics of the arbitrage process underlying interconnected markets. Furthermore, we extend the standard TAR model to include a time trend in both the threshold and the adjustment parameter. Using weekly maize price data on seven selected markets in Tanzania, we illustrate how both transaction cost and the speed of adjustment have changed during the nineties.     

Cross-sectional variation in the economic consequences of international accounting harmonization: The case of mandatory IFRS adoption in the UK

This study examines the economic consequences for UK firms of the European Union's decision to impose mandatory IFRS. We hypothesize that the impact varies across firms and is conditional on the perceived benefit. We estimate a counter-factual proxy for a UK firm's willingness to adopt IFRS from the prior GAAP choices of German firms. We show that this proxy predicts cross-sectional variations in both the short-run market reactions and the long-run changes in cost of equity that are associated with the decision. This implies that mandatory IFRS adoption does not benefit all firms in a uniform way but results in relative winners and losers.     

A simple continuous measure of credit risk

This paper introduces a simple parameterization for the risk-neutral default probability distributions for risky firms that are easily computed from quoted bond prices. The corresponding expected times to default have a particularly simple form and are proposed as a measure for credit risk. Being continuous in nature, times to default provide a much finer measure of risk than those provided by ratings agencies. Comparison with the ratings provided by Moody's and the distance to default measures calculated using the Merton [Merton, R. (1974). On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance, 2(2), 449-470] model shows that the highest rank correlation is found between the proposed time to default measure and Moody's ratings.     

Bank-Firm Relationships and International Banking Markets

This paper reviews how long-term relationships between firms and banks shape the structure and integration of banking markets worldwide. Bank relationships arise to span informational asymmetries that are endemic in financial markets. Firm-bank relationships not only entail specific benefits and costs for both the engaged firms and banks, but also directly affect the structure of banking markets. In particular, the sunk cost of screening and monitoring activities and the 'informational capital' collected by the incumbent banks may act as a barrier to entry. The intensity of the existing firm-bank relationships will determine the height of this barrier and shape the structure of international banking markets. For example, in Scandinavia where firms maintain few and strong relationships, foreign banks may only be able to enter successfully through mergers and acquisitions. On the other hand, Southern European firms maintain many bank relationships. Therefore, banks may consider entering Southern European banking markets through direct investment.     

The evolution of conventions under incomplete information

Summary. We formulate an evolutionary learning process with trembles for static games of incomplete information. For many games, if the amount of trembling is small, play will be in accordance with the games (strict) Bayesian equilibria most of the time. This supports the notion of Bayesian equilibrium. Often the process will select a specific equilibrium. We study an extension to incomplete information of the prototype conflict known as Chicken and find that the equilibrium selection by evolutionary learning may well be in favor of inefficient Bayesian equilibria where some types of players fail to coordinate.Received: 17 March 2003, Revised: 3 December 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C72.