货币冲击与中国经济波动——基于DSGE模型的数量分析

基于1993~2008年的季度数据,本文在一个包含Calvo价格粘性的新凯恩斯主义模型中,讨论了中国货币冲击与经济增长的关系。在假定货币政策通过调整货币供给增长实施的前提下,本文根据模型模拟和实际数据的对比以及脉冲响应函数分析得出以下结论:(1)货币并非我国经济波动根源,实际产出对货币供给具有一定反馈作用。(2)通货膨胀的顺周期性和领先增长表明中国经济周期存在总需求拉动的特性。物价波动在中短期主要由货币供应量波动引起。(3)货币政策对实体经济有效但效果有限,货币供给变动对投资的作用效力更大,对消费需求刺激有限。     

广东省高技术产业各行业效率变化的实证研究

采用基于DEA的Malmquist生产率指数法,选取5个投入指标和4个产出指标对1995—2008年广东省高技术产业的4个细分行业进行多投入、多产出的动态效率测度。结果表明:1995—2008年期间广东省高技术产业全要素生产率的年均增长率为12.3%,这是技术进步和技术效率共同推动的结果,其贡献率分别为11.1%和1.1%;电子及通信设备制造业全要素生产率的平均增长率最高,主要由技术进步推动;其次是医疗设备及仪器仪表制造业,由技术进步和规模效率共同推动;然后依次是电子计算机及办公设备制造业和医药制造业,技术进步是两者的主要推动力量。最后,提出促进广东省高技术产业生产率提升的政策建议。     

Technology elasticity and potential on energy saving and emission reduction: evidence from China

This article investigates the elasticity of different technology choices to energy efficiency and chemical oxygen demand/ammonia nitrogen emission reducing efficiency among 38 industries in China from 2008 to 2011. With data envelopment analysis, total-factor productivity growth, the common measure of technical progress, is divided into different parts: technical efficiency relative to the frontier, technology change and scale efficiency, which are regarded as three different choices of technological progress. For various industries, technology elasticity is quite different and the importance of different technical choices is diverse in the improvement of efficiency on energy saving and emission reduction. Policymakers could focus on the elasticity of different technical progress choices in various industries to improve energy and emission reduction efficiency.     

阅读难易程度与信息披露质量——基于易读衡量和关联因素视角的分析

当前信息披露传递的质量与效率正受到多方利益相关者的日益关注,其中披露信息阅读难易程度的相关研究由此开始得以重视。文章系统梳理比较了国内外易读性衡量及研究的方法与发展趋势,进而从信息提供者和信息使用者的角度,探讨企业操纵信息披露阅读难易程度的关联因素与后续效应,并提出未来在财经领域强化信息披露阅读难易程度相关研究的思路与建议。     

我国省级区域金融发展对经常项目的影响研究——基于货物贸易视角的分析

本文选取我国大陆31个省(市、自治区)2007年-2018年的面板数据,综合运用系统GMM和差分GMM估计方法,实证检验了沿海与内陆、沿边与非沿边、享受优惠政策高与低、金融控制强与弱等4类不同省区金融发展对经常项目余额的影响。研究结果表明:使用全部样本估计时,金融发展显著负向影响经常项目余额,这一结论经稳健性检验后依然成立。使用不同区域的子样本估计时,金融发展对沿海省区、非沿边省区、享受优惠政策高以及金融控制弱省区的经常项目余额的抑制作用较大,而在其他省区作用较小。因此,各地区应充分利用金融手段来调整进出口余额,以保证经常项目的持续平衡。     

地区制度发展的动态变化与企业对外直接投资:来自中国上市公司的经验证据

母国制度环境对于新兴经济体企业的国际化战略与行为具有重要影响。以往的文献多关注于制度发展的水平,而忽视了制度发展的动态特征,即基于制度理论和信号理论,文章探讨和分析了中国各地区制度发展的三个特征,即速度、节奏和同步性对于企业对外直接投资的作用机制,并利用2003~2014年中国上市公司的微观数据进行了检验。研究结果显示,制度发展的速度越慢、越不规律、越不同步,企业越倾向于进行对外直接投资,开展国际化经营。同时,业绩压力和模仿同构压力调节了制度变化特征与对外直接投资之间的关系,并存在双重强化效应。进一步的分析表明,在预期面临制度约束时,非国有企业进行对外投资的意愿更强,企业也更倾向于进入制度环境相对优良的国家和地区。文章的研究深化了对制度构成及其维度的理解,进一步丰富了制度理论和新兴经济体跨国公司理论,对加强中国的制度建设具有启示意义。     

Taxation,fiscal capacity,and credible commitment in eighteenth-century China: the effects of the formalization and centralization of informal surtaxes†

This article explores a tax reform in eighteenth-century China that formalized county-level informal surtaxes and centralized control over them in the hands of provincial governors, in an effort to strengthen provincial fiscal capacity. The findings show that this reform increased the frequency of famine relief in cases of exceptional disaster relative to other weather conditions. The study shows that the effects were driven by the new fiscal revenues—public funds—at the governors’ discretion, not by the central government's relief actions, bureaucratic control over lower officials, or other concurrent fiscal reforms. Moreover, the reform facilitated intertemporal smoothing and inter-regional risk sharing. However, the effects declined as soon as the central government broke its promise and began to appropriate provincial fiscal revenues. These findings not only provide evidence that fiscal centralization could enhance the provision of public goods in a premodern context, but also highlight that it was the lack of a credible commitment by the central government to the provincial governments that accounted for the short-lived effects of the reform.     

Search query formation by strategic consumers

Quantitative Marketing and Economics - Submitting queries to search engines has become a major way for consumers to search for information and products. The massive amount of search query data...     

The influence of risk preferences,knowledge, land consolidation,and landscape diversification on pesticide use

Researchers have spent substantial effort to identify factors influencing pesticide use intensity. However, few studies have compared the relative importance of these factors. This study examines four categories of factors that potentially influence farmers’ pesticide use decisions by evaluating incentivized experiment data, farm survey data, and remote sensing data in China. Our results suggest that land diversification has the largest effect on farmers’ pesticide use. Compared with the most rice-intensive landscape type, less rice-intensive systems cause farmers to spray less on middle rice. Heavy pesticide use intensity is associated with land fragmentation as small-scale farms still dominate crop production. Farmers’ integrated pest management knowledge has significant effects on pesticide use. We also find that loss and ambiguity preferences, rather than risk preferences, are more likely to affect pesticide use intensity.     

辣木树不同部位γ-氨基丁酸的HPLC分析

用高效液相色谱法检测了辣木树不同部位γ-氨基丁酸的含量,结果表明:每100 g样品中,辣木果实、叶、果皮、花、根、籽及茎中的GABA含量分别为378.39、275.64、194.15、96.42、69.14、27.32 mg与0.00 mg。由此可见,辣木树中富含GABA,且幼嫩部位含量较高,本研究可为辣木产品的质量评价、开发利用以及辣木树中GABA的合成部位与运输情况研究提供理论参考。