The U.S. health care expenditure: evidence from 2001 to 2009

This study utilizes state-level data from 2001 to 2009 to estimate the impact of the 2007 financial crisis upon health care expenditures. Higher death rates are consistently found to have a positive and statistically significant impact on health expenditures. While mental health and COPD are not generally found to impact expenditures, increases in the percentage of the population diagnosed with cholesterol and obesity tend to increase health expenditures. Increases in health expenditures slowed considerably after the financial crisis. Even though recessions (high unemployment rates) are generally found to have a positive impact on health expenditures, the post-financial crisis time period is estimated to have much lower health expenditures than in other time periods. Our results can be used to give insight into the conditions under which the slower rate of increase in health expenditures can be expected to increase. More research will be needed to be able to more completely explore not only the reasons for these changes in health expenditures but also whether they are likely to continue into the future.     

An Empirical Comparison Between the Synthetic Control Method and HSIAO et al.'s Panel Data Approach to Program Evaluation

We compare two program evaluation methodologies: the synthetic control method and the panel data approach. We apply both methods to estimate the effect of the political and economic integration of Hong Kong. The results obtained differ depending on the methodology used. We then conduct a simulation that shows that the synthetic control method results in a post‐treatment mean squared error, mean absolute percentage error, and mean error with a smaller interquartile range, whenever there is a good enough match. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gender,life cycle,and family ‘strategies’ among the poor: the Barcelona workhouse, 1762–1805

Poor relief has received less attention from historians of southern Europe compared with northern Europe. This article seeks to challenge the frequent assumption that the strength of family ties in southern Europe mitigated the need for welfare provision. It provides new data for men and boys entering the Barcelona workhouse in the period 1780–1803, and compares these with data from an earlier study of women and girls who entered the same institution over the period 1762–1805. We establish the characteristics of those who sought relief in terms of age, place of origin, marital status, and occupation. We use the information on reasons for entry and exit to ascertain family circumstances. We show that there were significant differences between males and females in terms of why they entered and left, and length of stay, particularly among the elderly. The bulk of the population of the workhouse, however, was comprised of children and adolescents. For this group, entry into the workhouse represented not just a temporary solution to life cycle poverty and periodic unemployment, but also a longer‐term strategy aimed at smoothing entry into the labour market.     

The Geography of Innovation in China and India

The BRICS countries in general, and China and India in particular, are now widely regarded as the areas of the world likely to challenge the economic leadership of the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). A large part of this challenge will come from rapid technological catch‐up by China and India. Yet, despite a recent rise in interest, there is limited knowledge about how and where innovation takes place in these two leading emerging countries and to what extent the Chinese and Indian territorial systems of innovation differ from those in the EU or the US. In this article we explore the geography of innovation in China and India, concentrating on understanding key territorial‐level innovation trends by country, region and technology field, using the US and the EU as benchmarks. We find significant contrasts between the geography of innovation in China and India and that of the US and the EU. First, the degree of concentration of innovative activities in both countries is extremely high. Levels of agglomeration of innovation in the coastal provinces of China, as well as in Delhi and the South of India, significantly exceed the levels of agglomeration found in the USA and the EU. Secondly, China has witnessed a more rapid increase in the degree of concentration of innovation than India. We posit that the differences in the geography of innovation between, on the one hand, China and India and, on the other hand, between these countries and the developed world are rooted in different institutional settings, different systems of innovation and different national innovation strategies.     

Do analysts who understand accounting conservatism exhibit better forecasting performance?

This study investigates the performance of analysts when they match the asymmetric timeliness of their earnings forecast revisions (i.e., asymmetric forecast timeliness) with the asymmetric timeliness of firms’ reported earnings (i.e., asymmetric earnings timeliness). We find that better timeliness‐matching analysts produce more accurate earnings forecasts and elicit stronger market reactions to their forecast revisions. Further, better timeliness‐matching analysts issue less biased earnings forecasts, more profitable stock recommendations and have more favorable career outcomes. Overall, our results indicate that analysts’ ability to incorporate conditional conservatism into their earnings forecasts is an important reflection of analyst expertise and professional success.     

Globalisation and Corruption,Revisited

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the determinants of corruption, focussing on the role of globalisation and inequality. The estimates for a panel of 102 countries over the period 1995–2005 point to three main results: (i) Detection technologies, reflected in a high level of development, human capital and political rights reduce corruption, whereas natural resource rents increase corruption; (ii) Globalisation (in terms of both trade and financial openness) has a negative effect on corruption, which is more pronounced in developing countries; (iii) Inequality increases corruption, and once the role of inequality is accounted for, the impact of globalisation on corruption is halved. In line with recent theory, this suggests that globalisation – besides reducing corruption through enhanced competition – affects corruption also by reducing inequality.     

The Spanish Textile Industry Sans ATC Quota Protection

The Spanish textile and apparel manufacturing sectors have been badly impacted by the global recession as well as the removal of quotas that were in place with the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). This study employs a cost function to investigate the presence of scale economies and the interrelationships among inputs of domestic capital, labor, and intermediate goods as well as outsourced (imported) intermediate products for the Spanish textile industry in a global environment that has become increasingly competitive. While there is evidence of scale economies at low output levels, there is also some evidence consistent with diseconomies of scale at the highest output levels. All of the inputs appear to be substitutes for one another except for domestic capital and outsourced intermediate goods. An important finding is that the demands for both labor and domestic intermediate goods have become increasingly sensitive to the prices of outsourced inputs. The estimated coefficients of dummy variables indicate that reduced international trade restrictions have put downward pressure on unit cost for the industry in recent years. These results suggest that the Spanish textile industry and its domestic suppliers will be increasingly challenged by international competitive pressures.