A Comparison of Full Profile and Hierarchical Information Integration Conjoint Methods to Modeling Group Preferences

This paper presents a comparative test of full profile (FP), original hierarchical information integration (HII-O), and integrated hierarchical information integration (HII-I) conjoint methods for modeling group preferences. It is hypothesized that in settings where groups need to decide about complex multi-attribute alternatives, HII-O will predict holdout profiles better than FP, and that HII-I will perform better than HII-O. The predictive ability of the three methods is tested for the case of housing preferences of housing co-ops, which are groups consisting of three to five people who jointly own a house. The results confirm that HII-I outperforms the other two methods and further suggest that FP and HII-O perform equally well. In addition, two variations of HII-I are developed. One of these provides independent estimates of the relative influence of group members on the decision outcomes, however at the expense of requiring larger designs. The two HII-I variations are also tested and found to be equivalent in predictive ability.     

Generational Accounts for The Netherlands: An Update

This paper extends the standard generational accounting methodologyby incorporating prospective changes in the economic environment,assigning the benefits of government purchases to generations,distinguishing between public consumption and public investment,and transforming the generational accounts into government budgets.It applies the methodology to the Netherlands. An expected increasein labor-force participation almost offsets the adverse effectof aging on the sustainability of the Dutch public finances.Since the rise in labor-force participation occurs before thebulk of the aging, the government will have to run sizable fiscalsurpluses in the next decades in order to create the budgetaryroom for higher age-related government expenditures in laterdecades.     

The dynamics of industrial concentration in Australian manufacturing

A dynamic model of concentration is developed, with incomplete and industry-specific adjustment to deviations of concentration from its steady state. Cross-sectional analysis is carried out against a sample of 102 Australian manufacturing industries at the Australian Standard Industrial Classification (ASIC) four-digit level over the period 1977/78–1984/85. The estimated adjustment is faster than found in studies of the more mature industrial economies and this adjustment is found to significantly increase with reductions in tariff protection. There is also empirical support for John Sutton's argument that the relationship between concentration and market size depends on whether set-up costs are exogenous.     

Risk of major amputation or death among patients with critical limb ischemia initially treated with endovascular intervention,surgical bypass,minor amputation,or conservative management

Aims: Patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI) have an increased risk of major amputation. The initial treatment approach for CLI may significantly impact the subsequent risk of major amputation or death. The objective of this study was to describe the initial treatment approaches of patients with CLI and the limb outcomes associated with each approach.

Methods: Data from MarketScan Commercial and Medicare Supplemental Databases from January 2006–December 2014 was utilized. Cohorts of CLI patients were defined as follows: (1) peripheral vascular intervention (PVI); (2) peripheral vascular surgery (PVS); (3) minor amputation without concomitant PVI or PVS (MinAMP); and (4) Patients without PVI, PVS, or MinAMP (conservative therapy). The odds of major amputation or inpatient death were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model. For those patients requiring a major amputation, the incremental expenditures per member per month (PMPM) were estimated using a gamma log-link model.

Results: Conservative therapy was associated with significantly higher odds of major amputation or inpatient death compared to patients who underwent minor amputation (1.59-times), PVI (2.08-times), or PVS (2.12-times). Patients treated with an initial strategy of minor amputation also had higher odds of major amputation or inpatient death compared to PVS (1.31-times) or PVI (1.33-times). The estimated incremental expenditures PMPM for patients with a major amputation was $5,165.

Conclusions: Revascularization reduces the risk of a major amputation or inpatient death for patients with CLI when compared to conservative therapy. Major amputation is also associated with significantly higher healthcare expenditures.     

The Optimal Mortgage Payment Path Under Price Uncertainty

It has been shown that in a world of certainty, individuals with rising income streams will choose a graduated payment mortgage over the standard flat payment mortgage. The present paper extends this analysis by introducing uncertainty about future inflation rates. We show that the risk-averse individual, when faced with uncertainty, will choose a less graduated payment path than in the certainty situation. While not conclusive, the analysis may cast some doubt on the suboptimality of the standard flat payment mortgage.