Postnormal network futures: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

Sardar's “Welcome to Postnormal Times” describes the chaotic, contradictory and uncertain climate today, and analyses the failure of progress, modernisation or efficiency to provide ethical, political or even trustworthy economic solutions to the instability of the present. Missing in his analysis is the role of knowledge, especially as it is migrating from individuals to technical networks. This paper argues that recent developments in the networking of knowledge point towards a new constellation in which networks are emerging as major powers alongside the nation and the market, the two pillars of global political economy in the 20th and early 21st century. It responds to Sardar's challenge to imagine the future by imagining the political consequences of recognising non-human agencies as political actors.     

Agricultural productivity and natural resource use in southern Africa

This paper examines the natural resource status of southern Africa and analyzes the critical linkages between the performance of southern African agriculture and natural resource use patterns. The implication of on-going natural resource use trends on poverty, food insecurity, and environmental degradation are also analyzed. The challenges that must be addressed including, how best to intensify agricultural production, the types of technologies to promote and the imperatives of production efficiency and intra-regional trade are examined. The paper concludes with some suggestions on how best to proceed in the future to be able to successfully address the challenges identified.     

Private placement,share prices,volume and financial crisis: An emerging market study

Firms are increasingly resorting to private placements in recent years, yet there is no published study of emerging markets. There is a unique opportunity to study this behavior during a severe financial crisis, when firms resorted to private placements to recover financially distressed firms. Our analysis using data over fifteen years shows (a) a significant 2–3% positive share price reaction, affirming asymmetric information effect, (b) a significant volume activity, and (c) the price impact is different across a period of a major financial crisis. If the proceeds from placement are earmarked for investment, share price is negatively (positively) correlated during the crisis (non-crisis) periods. Our finding on regulation is inconsistent with prior reports in developed markets: this is explained by the stricter restrictions on trading of private issues in emerging market. These results provide modest new contributions to the literature on private placements.     

Forecasting value‐at‐risk in oil prices in the presence of volatility shifts

Recent evidence suggests shifts (structural breaks) in the volatility of returns causes non‐normality by significantly increasing kurtosis. In this paper, we endogenously detect significant shifts in the volatility of oil prices and incorporate this information to estimate Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) to accurately forecast large declines in oil prices. Our out‐of‐sample performance results indicate that the model, which incorporates both time varying volatility (without making any distributional assumptions) and shifts in volatility, produces more accurate VaR forecasts than several benchmark methods. We make a timely contribution as the recent more frequent occurrences of unexpected large oil price declines has gained significant attention because of its substantial impact on the financial markets and the global economy.     

The impact on stock prices of deferral and elimination of internal control audit requirement for small firms

This paper examines the cumulative market reaction to the events related to deferral of internal control audit requirement under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and its elimination under the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 for nonaccelerated filers (small firms). We document that small firms experienced negative cumulative abnormal returns around these events; and the differences between the cumulative abnormal returns for small firms and the two control groups (accelerated and large accelerated filers) were negative and significant at the 1% level. These results support the notion that market participants value the reliability of financial information irrespective of the firm size. Within the small firms, we find no firm characteristic significantly explains the market reaction to the events considered. That is, all small firms lost market value in reaction to the events that delayed and eliminated their internal control audit requirement.     

The closed‐loop effect and the profitability of horizontal mergers

Abstract.  We study the profitability of horizontal mergers in a dynamic competition context with sticky prices. It is shown that, when firms use open‐loop strategies, a merger is profitable only if the share of the market that merges is significant enough. In the case where firms use closed‐loop strategies we provide a method to conduct analytically the study of the profitability of horizontal mergers. We first prove the existence of an equilibrium of the game when a subset of firms merges. When firms use feedback strategies, mergers are profitable even when the share of the market that merges is arbitrarily small. JEL Classification:D4, L13     

The value relevance of disclosure: Evidence from the emerging capital market of Egypt

This study examines the value of voluntary and mandatory disclosure in a market that applies International Accounting Standards (IAS) with limited penalties for non compliance. The lack of enforcement creates an element of choice in the level of mandatory disclosure by companies. Using panel-data analysis, our empirical results show that, after controlling for factors such as asset size and profitability, mandatory disclosure has a highly significant but negative relationship with firm value. This result, although puzzling from a traditional perspective, is consistent with the predictions of analytical accounting models, which emphasize the complex interplay of factors determining disclosure effects. Our results also show that voluntary disclosure has a positive but insignificant association with firm value. This lack of statistical significance supports the view that there is a complex interplay of different factors determining the relationship between disclosure and firm value.     

Design of an interrelated quality system for a single product manufacturing process with assembly

The design of a single product manufacturing system with assembly is considered. The processing is on a lot-by-lot basis with the lot size fixed. The decision variables include interrelated single sampling plans, manufacturing process quality levels, incoming raw material quality levels and assembly process quality levels. A solution procedure is given to minimize the expected total of the costs associated with the quality of the finished product subject to a limit on the Average Outgoing Quality Limit of the finished product. An example is provided.     

The Bias Due to Omitting Income When Estimating Demand Functions

This paper obtains an expression of the bias when relevant explanatory variables are omitted in seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models. A simple demand system is provided to illustrate the direction of the bias terms when a variable is omitted.
L'article permet d'exprimer le biais qui résulterait de l'omission de variables explicatives pertinentes dans des modéles de régression sans corrélation apparente (SUR). Le système de demande simple qui est présente ici met en évidence le sens des éléments de biais lorsqu'on omet une variable.     

A new test for D-stability

A sufficient condition for D-stability of an n × n matrix A is the existence of a positive diagonal matrix P such that PA + A′P is negative definite. The search for P is replaced by solving a convex minimization problem.