Bayesian and Bühlmann credibility for phase-type distributions with a univariate risk parameter

Credibility theory is a statistical tool to calculate the premium for the next period based on past claims experience and the manual rate. Each contract is characterized by a risk parameter. A phase-type (or PH) random variable, which is defined as the time until absorption in a continuous-time Markov chain, is fully characterized by two sets of parameters from that Markov chain: the initial probability vector and transition intensity matrix. In this article, we identify an interpretable univariate risk parameter from amongst the many candidate parameters, by means of uniformization. The resulting density form is then expressed as an infinite mixture of Erlang distributions. These results are used to obtain a tractable likelihood function by a recursive formula. Then the best estimator for the next premium, i.e. the Bayesian premium, as well as its approximation by the Bühlmann credibility premium are calculated. Finally, actuarial calculations for the Bühlmann and Bayesian premiums are investigated in the context of a gamma prior, and illustrated by simulated data in a series of examples.     

Conflicting perceptions on participation between citizens and members of local government

There is a growing consensus among citizens and members of local government that citizen participation is desirable for local government. However in practice, there are differing perceptions between them regarding the level and extent of citizen participation. As citizen participation is a multi faceted concept, its meaning is construed differently by both the members of local government and the citizen groups. This paper attempts to describe the conflicts that arise from participation. The paper is based on the study of the process of citizen participation in local government carried out in Torbat-Heydarieh city, Iran. A qualitative research method is seen as the most suitable approach of collecting and analyzing the data. The method employed for data collection in this research is in-depth interviews. In-depth interviews were conducted to gauge the existence of conflicts regarding participation. The findings reveal four areas that give rise to conflicts. This study also attempts to highlight two different views regarding citizen participation; the people-centered view and authority-centered view.     

Big data tools for Islamic financial analysis

Behavioural science states that emotions, principles and the manner of thinking can affect the behaviour of individuals and even investors in their decision making on financial markets. In this paper, we have tried to measure the investor sentiment by three means of big data. The first is based on a search query of a list of words related to Islamic context. The second is inferred from the engagement degree on social media. The last measure of sentiment is built, based on the Twitter API classified into positive and negative directions by a machine learning algorithm based on the naive Bayes method. Then, we investigate whether these sensations and emotions have an impact on the market sentiment and the price fluctuations by means of a vector autoregression model and Granger causality analysis. In the final step, we apply the agent‐based simulation by means of the sequential Monte Carlo method with the control of our Twitter measure on Islamic index returns. We show, then, that the three social media sentiment measures present a remarkable impact on the contemporaneous and lagged returns of the different Islamic assets studied. We also give an estimation of the parameters of the latent variables relative to the agent model studied.     

The market's perception of the riskiness of large U.S. Bank commercial letters of credit

This article improves upon the market discipline studies of commercial letters of credit (CLC) by employing two new capital market tests, in addition to traditional beta and equity risk tests. Option pricing models have been used to calculate implied asset risk. Two implied asset risk measures have been used to examine the riskiness of commercial letters of credit. The results indicate that stockholders view CLCs as reducing bank risk, and debt holders are indifferent about CLCs. A policy conclusion of these findings is that additional capital requirements of CLCs for large commercial banks may be inappropriate.     

The influence of branding on adolescent smoking behaviour: exploring the mediating role of image and attitudes

• This study investigates the continuing effects of tobacco marketing communications in a post advertising era, focusing on the constructs of brand awareness, brand image, attitude formation and intention to smoke by adolescents.
• A conceptual model is presented, based on 926 respondents from a UK wide study, to assess brand‐related interrelationships and influences of peers on adolescents' attitudes toward smoking and intention to smoke.
• Results show the strong influence of branding on both attitude and intention, and have implications for government anti‐smoking policies specifically in regard to generic packaging and point of sale displays.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Entrepreneurial intention among University students in Malaysia: integrating self-determination theory and the theory of planned behavior

The present study endeavors to develop a deeper understanding of the motivational processes involved in intentional entrepreneurial behavior. For this purpose, it integrates the social cognitive approach of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the organismic theory of motivation of self-determination theory (SDT). More specifically, it tests the role of basic psychological needs of autonomy, competence and relatedness as defined in SDT in shaping university students’ attitudes and intentions toward entrepreneurship. The sample of this study consisted of 438 (Males?=?166, Females =272) 3rd and 4th year university students from four Malaysian Public Universities. The results of the study show that the model strongly explains about 71% of the variance in entrepreneurial intention. Basic psychological needs of autonomy, competence and relatedness have a strong indirect impact on entrepreneurial intention via their attitudinal antecedents: attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control. This indicates a full-mediational model, where the attitudinal factors operated as transmitters of effects from the distal constructs of SDT on entrepreneurial intention. These findings confirm that both SDT and the TPB provide complementary explanations of the motivational processes of entrepreneurial behavior. The study contributes to the existing knowledge by providing a theory-based understanding of the role of motivations in the formation of entrepreneurial intentions. It opens the way for future research to analyze how alternative motivations may affect new venture creation, survival and success.

     

Provision of financial information and its impact on the relationship between executives and venture capital managers: A study of the private equity market in Egypt

This study makes an attempt to further understand the practices of private equity/venture capital (PE/VC) in developing markets. We focus our attention on the relationship between PE/VC firms and the investee companies (ICs) and its development. We investigate the provision of financial and non-financial information and its effects on the development of the relationship between chief executive officers (CEOs) and PE/VC managers in Egypt as one of the developing markets. Data were collected from Egyptian PE/VC firms via semi-structured interviews. Both similarities and differences were found between Egyptian PE/VC in respect of developing the relationships with their ICs. Results show that the provision of timely information allows PE/VC managers to: (i) have a higher degree of trust on CEOs; (ii) be more supportive of the CEO's strategic decisions; and (iii) interact more frequently with the ICs. The origin of the PE/VC firms seems to have an effect on the Egyptian PE/VC firms’ behaviours. International PE/VC firms are also more likely to get involved in every decision at the strategic level of the ICs. The current study provides some implications for both CEOs of the ICs and PE/VC managers. It is important for PE/VC managers to develop and maintain successful relationships with ICs, which will promote a positive image of the PE/VC firms that can be used for marketing purposes, which in turn can be translated into more deals in the future.     

Optimizing transit maintenance and rehabilitation to support human development and sustainability: A case study of Costa Rica’s railroad network

Public transportation plays a critical role in improving human development and consequently the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by United Nations. Convenient and efficient transit enable inhabitants to reach labor markets, access social support facilities as well as health and education services. This study develops a decision-making support framework for transit agencies to select optimum maintenance, rehabilitation, and upgrade alternatives to accomplish good levels of service and improve human development and sustainability indexes. A case study of Costa Rica’s great metropolitan area is used to illustrate the study with various budget scenarios. The results show that the proposed system can accomplish significant improvements on both level of service and human development. It is also confirmed that the explicit consideration of human development and sustainability made a significant difference as compared to the classical approach, which only considers the level of service (LOS). The proposed model could be used by other public transit systems.     

Impact of instrumental ties,tacit knowledge sharing and affective commitment on absorptive capacity – an empirical study of pharmaceutical companies

Absorptive capacity construct has gained importance since last two decades especially in knowledge intensive environment. The companies invest their time and resources to achieve strategic goals and thus enhance their absorptive capacity in order to deal with new knowledge requirements. Companies largely focus on the macro level processes and mechanisms which are external to their boundaries and ignore the intra company factors critical to absorptive capacity. This study explores the impact of human behaviours related to instrumental ties (INST), affective commitment (AFC) and tacit knowledge sharing (TKS) on absorptive capacity (ACAP). Results of this study based on sample from pharmaceutical companies of Pakistan show significant contribution of human behaviour in development of absorptive capacity. The employees’ behaviours may not be ignored by decision makers in pharmaceutical companies while formulating knowledge strategies.