Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis

In this paper we apply wavelet analysis to study the dynamics of long-term movements in wholesale prices for the USA, the UK and France over the period 1791–2012. The application of wavelet analysis to long-term historical price series allows us to detect long waves in prices whose periodization is remarkably similar to those provided in the literature for the pre-World War II period. Moreover, we find evidence on the existence of long waves in prices also after World War II, a period in which long waves are generally difficult to detect because of the positive trend displayed by prices. The comparison between the long wave components extracted through wavelets and the Christiano–Fitzgerald band-pass filter suggests that wavelets provide a reliable and straightforward technique for analyzing long waves dynamics in time series exhibiting quite complex patterns such as historical data.     

CHILD LABOUR: A REVIEW OF RECENT THEORY AND EVIDENCE WITH POLICY IMPLICATIONS

In recent years, a growing number of authors have turned their attention to the question of why children work. The purpose of this paper is to review some of the more recent theoretical and empirical research into the topic of child labour, and to illustrate the fact that no one factor on its own can account for the phenomenon of child labour. Therefore, policies aimed at eradicating child labour will need to address the broad range of underlying factors that contribute to the incidence of child labour, such as poverty, market imperfections and access to education.     

Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty

This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts based on different estimation windows in order to account for possible structural change. The first scheme weights the forecasts according to the values of reversed ordered CUSUM (ROC) test statistics, while the second weighting method simply assigns heavier weights to forecasts that use more recent information. Simulation results show that, when structural breaks are present, forecasts based on the first weighting scheme outperform those based on a procedure that simply uses ROC tests to choose and forecast from a single post-break estimation window. Combination forecasts based on our second weighting scheme outperform equally weighted combination forecasts. An empirical application based on a NAIRU Phillips curve model for the G7 countries illustrates these findings, and also shows that combination forecasts can outperform the random walk forecasting model.     

Demographic determinants of public service motivation: a meta-analysis of PSM-age and -gender relationships

ABSTRACT

Although age and gender are among the most analysed determinants of public service motivation (PSM), their effects on PSM development remain unclear due to contradictory findings among studies. To address this issue, we carried out a meta-analysis of PSM-age and -gender correlations, synthesizing findings from 30 independent samples, with pooled sample sizes as large as N = 86,958. Moreover, we considered the role of cultural context as a moderator of these relationships. Overall, we found that age and gender are indeed antecedents of PSM, but importantly, that these effects differ across cultural contexts. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

Book Reviews

Ian Chalmers and Vedi R. Hadiz (eds) (1997), The Politics of Economic Development in Indonesia, Routledge, London, pp. xxx + 269. A$155.00.

Geoff Forrester (ed.) (1999), Post-Soeharto Indonesia: Renewal or Chaos? Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, and KITLV Press, Leiden, pp. 373. Cloth: S$49.90/US$32.90; paper: S$29.95/US$19.95/A$29.95.

Corden, Max (1999), The Asian Crisis: Is There a Way Out?, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, pp. 82. S$19.90/US$12.90.

Karl D. Jackson (ed.) (1999), Asian Contagion: The Causes and Consequences of a Financial Crisis, Westview Press, Boulder CO, pp. xvi + 312. Cloth: US$75.00; Paper: US$30.00.

H.W. Arndt and Hal Hill (1999), Southeast Asia's Economic Crisis: Origins, Lessons and the Way Forward, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, pp. 192. Cloth: S$66.90/US$44.90; paper: S$28.00/US$17.90/A$29.95.

Manuel F. Montes (1998), The Currency Crisis in Southeast Asia: Update, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, pp. xl + 62. Cloth: S$36.00 /US$24.00; paper: S$25.90/US$17.90.     

Factors affecting consumer acceptance of chilled ready meals on the island of Ireland

The chilled ready meal market on the island of Ireland is relatively young but is growing rapidly. This paper focused on a consumer questionnaire (n = 702), designed to examine consumer attitudes to and consumption of chilled ready meals, in both the north and south of Ireland. This formed part of a larger study, with the questionnaire findings contributing to an in‐depth sensory study on a selected range of chilled ready meals. For a significant number of Irish consumers, consumption of these products is higher than on the UK mainland. For others, the products are purchased as a convenient alternative or a weekly treat. Respondents in urban locations were significantly more likely to consume chilled ready meals, as were men and younger, single respondents. Irish consumers are becoming more accustomed to ethnic cuisine although traditional meals remain popular. There is a clear need for developers to continue to enhance the sensory quality of these products, particularly as the primary barrier to consumption was a preference for home cooked food. However, they must also strive to maintain consumer interest in the sector, fulfil the desire for convenience and satisfy a more discerning palate.     

The Potential of Interdisciplinarity for Leisure Research

Abstract

Knowledge about preferences for campsite attributes is needed so that management strategies can be guided by users’ preferences for settings and experiences. However, results of campsite choice studies have shown great variability across settings. Reexamination of this research shows a hierarchical typology of attributes: most important are necessity attributes, which supply basic camping needs, followed by experience attributes, which enhance preferred experience outcomes, and finally amenity attributes, which are relatively minor but can improve site quality. A survey of Whitewater boaters confirmed the predicted order of attribute importance and generally supported the proposed definitions of attribute types. A tentative model of campsite choice is offered in which sites are evaluated first for their ability to provide necessity attributes, then experience attributes, and finally, if more than one potential site remains, amenity attributes. Constraints may cut the evaluation process short anytime after the initial (necessity attribute) stage.     

NHS malaise: diagnosis and treatment options

The paper questions whether the recent reform package of the NHS will solve its ongoing problems, or whether a more fundamental reappraisal of the system is required.