Breakthrough in agricultural policy,or another policy failure?

Before the European summit in February 1988, EC agricultural policy was being criticized by almost all those affected. Farmers complained about low incomes and the lack of prospects, consumers and taxpayers about the high cost of agricultural support, politicians about spending commitments that could no longer be financed, agricultural economists about the waste of economic resources and trading partners about disruption of the world market. Have the decisions taken at the European summit set the Community on a fundamentally new course?     

Agriculture: Toward the year 2000

When the World Food Conference of 1974 demanded the eradication of world hunger within the brief time span of ten years, experts and laymen alike were surprised. The target seemed too ambitious, and it can be safely expected that it will not be achieved. A study has now been submitted by FAO to its 20th Plenary Conference session which—without proposing a new target date—attempts to prove the feasibility of greatly reducing world hunger before the advent of the 21st century.     

A structural model of price and exchange rate dynamics in a small open economy

Conclusions A major result following from the analysis of ourstructural model of inflation under flexible exchange rates is that there is no such thing asstructural inflation in the long run. Long-run inflation rather becomes a purely monetary phenomenon if exchange rates are flexible and if on an international level functioning capital markets are postulated. While, in the light of the assumptions made in Part III, this finding is not nearly as paradoxical as it may appear at first sight, it can hardly be overemphasized considering the ongoing theoretical discussion and the empirical research on the Scandinavian approach to inflation and recalling that the Scandinavian model is basically intended to picture equilibrium dynamics.The results concerning equilibrium price and exchange rate dynamics also apply to the equilibriumlevels of prices and the exchange rate, i. e., the equilibrium price level depends exclusively on monetary factors while the equilibrium exchange rate is determined by a purchasing power parity element and the structural productivity gap component.Turning to the results of our analysis of disequilibrium dynamics, the overall picture does not change very much. Here the qualitative pattern of adjustment of both prices and the exchange rate is again completely independent of structural variables, but is exclusively determined by four adjustment coefficients. However, the particular quantitative values assumed by prices and the exchange rate during the adjustment process do indeed reflect the impact of the productivity gap.No conclusions can be derived from our model on the amount of time it takes to return to the neighbourhood of equilibrium once the economy has been subjected to some kind of external shock. A casual examination of post-1973 developments and especially the Swiss experience suggest, however, that in the case of a disturbance as, e. g., in the form of a monetary contraction (relative to the rest of the world), the economy may take so long to return to the neighbourhood of long-run equilibrium that the negative real consequences of the overvaluation of the domestic currency during the adjustment process provide a momentous rationale for short-run stabilization interventions in the foreign exchange market.We should like to thank Peter Bernholz and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on a previous version of this paper.     

Ist der Euro jetzt gerettet?

The paper analyses the German Federal Constitutional Court??s ruling on the ESM Treaty and the Fiscal Pact in the framework of the interim measures and provides an outlook on the decision in the main action. The material scope of the judgment and the standards of review are identified as well as the possible effects on the political scope of further euro bailout policy. The current crisis does not allow sufficient time for making the required changes to the EU treaties and to the German constitution. In view of the expected decision on the monetary policy strategy of the ECB, legal and economic aspects are considered, and the role of the central bank is critically reflected.     

Alpha forecasting in factor investing: discriminating between the informational content of firm characteristics

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - This paper applies a linear alpha forecasting framework to enhance commonly used factor investing strategies by taking into account the informational...