Cross-country differences in the contribution of future migration to old-age financing

As life expectancy increases and fertility declines, population aging puts pressure on the financing of welfare states in Europe and other developed countries. Given that immigrant workers are younger than the domestic population, a continuous flow of immigrants reduces the old-age dependency ratio and improves financing. Existing general equilibrium estimates of the public finance contribution of migration, performed with different models, are not comparable across countries and sometimes differ even in sign. We use the same overlapping-generations model with a detailed representation of institutions and labor market activity to provide comparable estimates of the impact of immigration on public finance in four European countries. We find that future projected immigration flows are equivalent to 14.3 % points labor income taxes in Austria, 7.3 points in Germany, 6.2 points in the UK and 1.7 points in Poland in 2060. These differences are due to the projected volume of immigration and institutional setups, among other factors. For comparable volumes of immigration, future flows have largest impact in Germany and smallest in the UK.     

Taylor rules and the Canadian–US equilibrium exchange rate

This paper identifies the Canadian–US equilibrium exchange rate based on a simple structural model of the real exchange rate, in which monetary policy follows a Taylor-rule interest rate reaction function. The exchange rate is explained by relative output and inflation as observable variables, and by unobserved equilibrium rates as well as unobserved transitory components in output and the exchange rate. Using Canadian data over 1974–2009 we jointly estimate the unobserved components and the structural parameters using the Kalman filter and Bayesian technique. We find that Canada's equilibrium exchange rate evolves smoothly and follows a trend depreciation. The transitory component is found to be very persistent but much more volatile than the equilibrium rate, resulting in few but prolonged periods of currency misalignments.     

Adopting a new technology: potatoes and population growth in the periphery

Sweden's population doubled in size between 1750 and 1850 despite a century of stagnating per capita incomes and real wages, which has led many historians to attribute the population explosion to the introduction of the potato. This article provides the first systematic evidence on the potato's contribution to Swedish living standards and population growth. Potatoes at least doubled output per acre, and welfare ratios that account for potato consumption imply that they raised living standards significantly for labourers. Estimates that exploit regional differences in the suitability of land for cultivating potatoes further show that cities, counties, and rural parishes with more land suitable for potato cultivation experienced a sharp relative acceleration in population growth as the potato spread in the early nineteenth century. An expansion of the population was mainly driven by relative increases in fertility and, consistent with Malthusian predictions, there was no long‐run impact on per capita incomes. According to these estimates, the introduction and spread of the potato can account for one‐tenth of population growth between 1800 and 1850, thus suggesting that it was an important catalyst for the Swedish population explosion.     

Too Many Cooks? Committees in Monetary Policy

How many people should decide monetary policy? In this article, we take an empirical perspective on this issue and analyze the relationship between the number of monetary policy decision makers and monetary policy outcomes. Using a new data set that characterizes central bank monetary policy committees (MPCs) in more than 30 countries from 1960 through 2006, we find a U‐shaped relationship between MPC size and inflation; our results suggest that the lowest level of inflation is reached at MPCs with an intermediate size of about five to nine members. Similar results are obtained for inflation variability. Other MPC characteristics also matter for monetary policy outcomes, though to a smaller degree. For instance, the membership composition of the MPC as well as the frequency of MPC membership turnover appears to affect economic variables.     

Are Social Costs the Outcome of Struggles over Truth?

Abstract:

This article critically examines the institutional economics theory of social costs by way of reviewing The Dark Places of Business Enterprise: Reinstating Social Costs in Institutional-Economics (2019). In particular, the article assesses the proposal to re-root institutional economics in the theoretical synthesis of “Veblen-Kapp-Mirowski” to better understand the social costs of neoliberalism. One of the findings is that while such a synthesis seems justified on the grounds of significant commonalities and the merits of deeper insights, it nevertheless runs into difficulties due to divergent philosophical foundations. One of the conclusions is that further philosophic clarification is needed on how an alternative economy would understand the relationship between “social costs” and Truth.     

制造(完美)威尼斯

威尼斯:所有双/三年展的母亲,现在几乎已经被她在圣保罗,悉尼,伊斯坦布尔或光州的子女以及在全世界一百多座城市的孙子辈展览所赶超。但它仍然是所有双年展的鼻祖,拥有特色鲜明的国家馆,内容广泛的外围展(国家馆和同期活动)。为期三天的开幕狂欢每次都让我们感叹如今的艺术界有多么国际化。威尼斯双年展比其他任何展览更能反映国际艺术界的现状和气氛——这     

Agent‐based modeling for ex ante assessment of tree crop innovations: litchis in northern Thailand

This study uses an agent‐based model for ex ante assessment of agricultural innovations. The model builds on whole farm mathematical programming (MP) and extends the methodology with a spatial representation of the system, the heterogeneity of farm households and landscapes, and the interaction between farm households. We apply the model in a northern Thai watershed to study the potential of four innovations to increase the profitability of litchi orchards. Cost‐benefit analysis shows that each innovation would increase the profitability of litchi growing; however, the results of the agent‐based model show that at current price levels these innovations alone would not be enough to stem the decline in the area under litchis. The model was validated and the sensitivity of the results tested for variations in the irrigated water supply and liquidity. We report on how farmers responded to these results and discuss the implications for other areas in northern Thailand.     

Assessing Advertising Effectiveness: The Potential of Goal‐Directed Behavior

Advertising clutter and declining audience attention means advertisers need pretesting to ensure the effectiveness of their advertisements. This study uses, for the first time, a variable‐resolution display to measure viewers’ visual attention to advertising. The display features only the part of an ad that corresponds with the observer's eye gaze with high acuity, whereas the resolution of the other parts reflects the decline in spatial resolution of the human visual system. Participants keep the highest resolution area aligned with their foveal vision using manual cursor movements. In accordance with neuroscientific theory, recorded cursor movements parallel the eye gaze patterns observed in a control group. However, unlike tracking eye movements, the instrument offers a simple, unobtrusive, low‐cost, and time‐efficient way to measure the effectiveness of visual advertising. The results encourage the use of goal‐directed manual pointing movements to indicate attentional signals generated in the brain.     

Managing the Quality of Marketing Data: Cost/benefit Tradeoffs and Optimal Configuration

A large majority of work in database marketing deals with what to do with data when it is available. This paper focuses on an aspect of data that has not been visited frequently in the database/interactive marketing literature—managing the quality of data resources from a profit point of view. While costly to achieve and sustain, high data quality is essential for effective database marketing. The notion that “more is better” very often prevails in data quality management decisions, essentially with very little consideration, if any, of cost. This paper suggests that data quality management decisions should be driven by considerations of cost–benefit tradeoffs and profit maximization. It specifically addresses data quality decisions which are highly relevant in the database marketing area: the subset of data records managed, reflecting time-span coverage, and the targeted quality levels in this subset. Decisions of these types are routinely made based on satisfying technical and functional requirements. In this study, we propose a model that quantifies the benefits and the costs associated with these decisions, and permits optimizing them from a profit maximization standpoint. The paper describes the model development, discusses its implications for data quality management decisions, and highlights its potential contributions with illustrative examples.