Monetary Policy Rules for a Small Open Economy

In this paper, the optimal choice of a monetary target is investigated for a small open economy that is subject to foreign monetary policy shocks. In contrast to large parts of the literature, pegging the exchange rate is never the best policy choice for the small open economy in our model. Instead, monetary targeting and, depending on the parameter combination, producer price index targeting come closest to the optimal policy rule in terms of welfare. Generally, the welfare performance of the simple targeting rules under consideration hinge critically on the degree of pass-through in the home economy and in the rest of the world.     

Interdependence and economic development in North and South

In the past four or five years politicians in the industrialized countries and research workers as well have been making increasing use of the term “interdependence” as quintessential to the economic and political relations between the North and the South. What does this term mean? Can the extent and the effects of this interdependence be quantified?     

How opportunistic are partisan German central bankers: Evidence on the Vaubel hypothesis

Recent research has found inconclusive evidence regarding the presence of opportunistic political business cycles in German data. Inferring from Vaubel, 1993 and Vaubel, 1997one could argue, however, that at least in the case of monetary policy the results are seriously flawed from the onset, because an independent central bank such as the German Bundesbank will support the government only when it shares its partisan views. Vaubel has not presented parametric empirical evidence in support of his hypothesis. We show that the application of time series analysis yields results that clearly run counter to the hypothesis. Evidence on voting behaviour from the central bank council minutes points in the same direction. It appears perhaps paradoxically that an opportunistic government is better off facing an ideologically opposing Bundesbank council majority than a supportive one before elections.     

Pensions, non-discrimination policies, and the employment of older workers

This paper analyzes firms' decisions to hire older workers. We model, the role of pensions in back-loading pay for specifically trained workers. We then evaluate the effects, of imposing age discrimination rules and non-discriminatory fringe benefit rules, and analyze the consequences for the firm's decision to hire older versus younger individuals. The model predicts that defined benefit pension plans deter the hiring of older workers, but only if hired for entry level position. The reason is f hat the wages of this group cannot be lowered enough to pay for the benefits. Data from a new survey of employers are used to test this hypothesis. The findings show that a more generous defined benefit pension plan reduces employment prospects for older, entry level workers. Employers offering defined benefit pension, plans employ older workers, but tend not to hire them into entry level jobs.     

Influence of circadian rhythms on television viewers’ behaviour: is there a need for new programming?

As a common activity, television (TV) watching plays an important role in leisure behaviour. The influence of circadian rhythms on nearly all aspects of leisure behaviour and social life has been well examined in many fields. Less is known about circadian influences on TV use/social behaviour, and inconsistent findings have been reported. We analysed epidemiologic data from public TV stations to interpret them in light of circadian/seasonal rhythms and their interaction with leisure behaviour with the goal of improving quality of life by using TV as a pure leisure activity. We found that TV programme schedules failed to synchronise with circadian rhythms. Problems with synchronisation were observed for all viewers and were significantly related to factors such as working behaviour and social activities. Future studies should focus on the circadian influence on TV watching as a leisure behaviour. We propose a newly defined schedule based on circadian influences.     

The Diffusion of Greenhouse Agriculture in Northern Thailand: Combining Econometrics and Agent-Based Modeling

This paper studies the diffusion of greenhouse agriculture in a watershed in the northern uplands of Thailand by applying econometrics and agent‐based modeling in combination. Adoption has been rapid by farmers in the central valley of the watershed, while farmers at higher altitudes, lacking transferable land titles that could serve as mortgage collateral, have been unable to obtain loans for greenhouse investment. The objectives of the paper are both methodological and empirical. On the methodological side, it shows that econometrically estimated models of farm household behavior are useful to design and to parameterize an agent‐based model. On the empirical side, simulation results show that if mortgage collateral would not be required, then adoption in the upper part of the watershed could reach nearly 77% of farm households by 2020, as compared to about 36% under current conditions. Furthermore results suggest a significant increase in incomes related to the innovation and a substantially greater irrigation water use, especially in the central part. As bell pepper under greenhouses has replaced pesticide‐intensive chrysanthemum, it has declined average levels of pesticide use. Nevertheless, pesticide use is high and farmers are struggling to control pests, which raises questions about the long‐term sustainability of the innovation. Dans le présent article, nous avons analysé, à l'aide d'un modèle économétrique et d'un modèle multi‐agent, l'expansion de la culture en serre dans un bassin versant des hautes terres du Nord de la Thaïlande. Les agriculteurs de la vallée centrale du bassin versant ont adopté rapidement cette forme d'agriculture, tandis que les agriculteurs installés dans les hautes altitudes n’ont pu, faute de titres fonciers transférables pouvant servir de garantie, obtenir de prêts pour construire des serres. Les objectifs du présent article étaient à la fois méthodologiques et empiriques. Sur le plan méthodologique, notre étude a montré que les modèles de comportement des ménages agricoles estimés économétriquement sont utiles pour concevoir et paramétrer un modèle multi‐agent. Sur le plan empirique, les résultats de simulation ont montré que, si des garanties de prêt n’étaient pas exigées, 77 p. 100 des ménages agricoles adopteraient la culture en serre dans les hautes terres du bassin versant d'ici 2020, comparativement à environ 36 p. 100 dans les conditions actuelles. De nouveaux résultats ont indiqué que cette innovation ainsi qu’un usage accru de l'eau pour l'irrigation, particulièrement dans la partie centrale, pourraient générer une hausse substantielle des revenus. Depuis que la culture en serre du poivron vert a remplacé la culture du chrysanthème exigeante en pesticides, l'usage des pesticides a beaucoup diminué, mais demeure tout de même élevé. Les agriculteurs ont de la difficultéà lutter contre les ravageurs, ce qui soulève des questions sur la viabilitéà long terme de l'innovation.     

Solutions to the request reassignment problem in collaborative carrier networks

The paper considers an arrangement for exchanging transportation requests to facilitate collaboration among independent carriers. The goal is to maximize the total profit without decreasing the individual profit of the carriers. Two solution approaches are developed for this problem involving decentralized control and auction based exchange mechanisms. The results are compared with those obtained without collaboration and by a centralized control. They indicate that horizontal collaboration pays off even in highly competitive environments.     

Collaborative innovation and policy support: the emergence of trilateral networks

ABSTRACT

The present article models the critical factors for a successful and evolutionarily stable National System of Innovation. We simulate a model, against the background of increasingly complex technologies, in a national process of agents’ interactions with social-dilemma characteristics. In particular, the articleinvestigates the emergence of a trilateral collaborative innovation alliance among ‘enterprise’, ‘university’ and ‘government’. We apply a tripartite evolutionary game with a replication process and explore the role and options of the public policy agent to support collaboration on innovation. We find that some policy mix, in particular, a combination of (1) public rewards for cooperation, (2) public punishment for non-cooperation and (3) settings of public cost controls and tax income from innovation, can promote broad and sustainable innovation alliances. For instance, threats of strong punishment, even with low public rewards for cooperation, may promote the formation of a collaborative innovation alliance. We run some sensitivity analyses of the results through parametric variation of two critical factors of the model, knowledge spillover and output elasticity of knowledge input. We find some qualifications for the velocity of the process.     

Assessment of Brazil's research literature

This ‘country study’ analyses substantial samples of research papers by Brazilian authors drawn from two global databases. The approach and the findings may each be of interest. Our approach is to examine R&D outputs through bibliometrics (to identify key authors, institutions, journals, etc.) and text mining with taxonomy generation (to identify pervasive research thrusts). We extend prior country studies by providing for interactive data access and exploring military-relevant R&D information. The resulting publication activity profiles provide insight on Brazilian R&D strengths and investment strategies, and help identify opportunities for collaboration. Brazil, a nation of 190 million, evidences a substantial research enterprise, with major capabilities in the life and biomedical sciences, as well as the physical sciences. We benchmark research patterns and trends against several other countries. We find a large measure of international collaboration, particularly with the USA.