Competitiveness and the Benchmarking of Nations—A Critical Reflection

This paper provides a critical evaluation of the role and validity of indices used to measure national competitiveness. It examines the growth in the number and range of such indices and explores their growing importance in benchmarking national economic performance. It also provides a detailed critical interrogation of four of the most commonly used indices, and examines their robustness in relation to their ability to predict overall economic performance. The results indicate that the indices are poor proxies and predictors of growth and are thus potentially misleading for policy-makers. The paper concludes by reflecting on the broader benchmarking and image-making role played by competitiveness indices.     

Forecasting ECB monetary policy: Accuracy is a matter of geography

Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multi-country, multi-cultural, and multi-lingual context. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that these have important repercussions on market behaviour. Explaining the differences in forecast accuracy, we provide evidence that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models.     

News Management in Monetary Policy: When Central Banks Should Talk to the Government

Central banks are often considered to be better informed about the present or future state of the economy than the government. A conservative central bank has an incentive to exploit this asymmetry by strategically managing its information policy. Strategic news management will keep the government uncertain about the state of the economy and increase the central bank's leeway for conducting a conservative monetary policy. We show that withholding information from the government is an equilibrium. However, there are also well-defined limits to strategic information policy as the central bank has to distort monetary policy to be in line with its news management. A simple extension of our findings is that, if the government on occasion learns about the bank's true information, it will then overrule the central bank's decision on monetary policy.     

Empirical Likelihood Approach for Aligning Information from Multiple Surveys

When two surveys carried out separately in the same population have common variables, it might be desirable to adjust each survey's weights so that they give equal estimates for the common variables. This problem has been studied extensively and has often been referred to as alignment or numerical consistency. We develop a design-based empirical likelihood approach for alignment and estimation of complex parameters defined by estimating equations. We focus on a general case when a single set of adjusted weights, which can be applied to both common and non-common variables, is produced for each survey. The main contribution of the paper is to show that the impirical log-likelihood ratio statistic is pivotal in the presence of alignment constraints. This pivotal statistic can be used to test hypotheses and derive confidence regions. Hence, the empirical likelihood approach proposed for alignment possesses the self-normalisation property, under a design-based approach. The proposed approach accommodates large sampling fractions, stratification and population level auxiliary information. It is particularly well suited for inference about small domains, when data are skewed. It includes implicit adjustments when the samples considerably differ in size. The confidence regions are constructed without the need for variance estimates, joint-inclusion probabilities, linearisation and re-sampling.     

Trust in the investor relationship marketing of startups: a systematic literature review and research agenda

Management Review Quarterly - An important task of entrepreneurs is the management of investor relations. Past literature has emphasized the role of trust for managing relationships and regulating...     

EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALLS AND INSTITUTIONAL MONITORING: EVIDENCE FROM TEXTUAL ANALYSIS

We document the effects of institutional investors on the qualitative information disclosure of firms during earnings conference calls. Using conference call and institutional ownership data between 2005 and 2016, we find that aggregate institutional ownership dampens conference call tone. The effects of institutional investors on tone are causal based on results from indexed firms. Consistent with hypotheses regarding investors' horizons, short-term institutional investors are associated with a more positive conference call tone, as well as more opportunistic trading, whereas long-term investors are associated with a more negative tone. Market participants can generally disentangle the impact of institutional investors on tone based on investor type.     

Do Business Borrowers Benefit from Bank Bailouts?: The Effects of TARP on Loan Contract Terms

We investigate benefits to business borrowers from bank bailouts, specifically the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Applying difference‐in‐difference methodology to loan‐level data, we find more favorable borrower contract terms in five dimensions, spread, amount, maturity, collateral, and covenants, suggesting increased credit supply at the intensive margin by bailed‐out banks. Findings are robust to dealing with endogeneity and other issues. Riskier borrowers benefit more, consistent with moral hazard exploitation. Small and unlisted borrowers benefit less, suggesting fewer benefits for financially constrained firms. Benefits accrue to both relationship and nonrelationship borrowers. Results contribute to the research and policy debates on bank bailouts.     

Risk aversion and the earnings of US immigrants and natives

The literature on the earnings of natives and immigrants has heretofore ignored differences in compensating wages for job risks. It is possible that the risk involved in migration may indicate a greater willingness on the part of immigrants to accept riskier jobs than natives. Alternatively, immigrants may attempt to protect their migration investment by choosing occupations with less risk, indicating a higher degree of risk aversion. This paper examines differences in risk aversion between US immigrants and natives, and corresponding differentials in wage premiums for job risk. Our analysis suggests that on average immigrants are exposed to 21% less risk than natives, but receive a 25% higher risk premium. The higher degree of risk aversion of immigrants and their lower exposure to risk, and thus lower earnings, explains 5% of the higher observed earnings of natives. We also find that earlier immigrant cohorts (pre-1970) are employed in riskier jobs than are recent cohorts, but the difference accounts for only a small portion of the observed earnings differential. Finally, we estimate statistical values of life of $3.6 million for US natives and $4.6 million for immigrants, well within the range of previous studies.     

The information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation

This article contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analysing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using Bayesian and other estimation techniques. We find that money contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) incorporating money perform better than their cashless counterparts. But there are also indications that the contribution of money has its limits. The marginal contribution of money to forecasting accuracy is often small, money adds little to dynamic factor models, and it worsens forecasting accuracy of partial equilibrium models. Finally, nonmonetary models dominate monetary models in an all-out horserace.     

Text-analytic measurement of effectuation and causation orientations among small and global business managers

We demonstrate how one can measure overall quality in texts gathered from interviews by means of PERTEX text analytic method. We compare text analytic measures and content for locally active Scandinavian small business managers and globally operating Indian IT managers when recapitulating the reasons behind company growth. Using Ward’s clustering method (J Am Stat Assoc 58:236–244, 1963) on a binary matrix for connections between textual components, we suggest using the ESS value from clustering to calculate AFFI as an overall measure of quality. By further splitting the AFFI into three sub-components we are also able to display the degree of fragmentation, focus and integration in the text. We show how AFFI measures differ between managers with a causation or effectuation orientation irrespective of their role as small business manager or as an established global manager. Hence, we posit that effectuation and causation orientations may be generic characteristic of managers in general.