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71.
This paper analyses which economic and political factors affect the chance that a country receives IMF credit or signs an agreement with the Fund. We use a panel model for 118 countries over the period 1971–2000. Our results, based on extreme bounds analysis, suggest that it is mostly economic variables that are robustly related to IMF lending activity, while most political variables that have been put forward in previous studies on IMF involvement are non-significant. To the extent that political factors matter, they seem more closely related to the conclusion of IMF agreements than to the disbursement of IMF credits. 相似文献
72.
In this paper we show that there exist intergenerational cross-subsidization effects in guaranteed interest rate life and pension contracts as the different generations partially share the same reserves. Early generations build up bonus reserves, which are left with the company at expiry of the contract. These bonus reserves function partly as a subsidy of later generations, such that the latter earn a risk-adjusted return above the risk-free rate. Furthermore, we show that this subsidy may be large enough to explain why late generations buy guaranteed interest rate products, which otherwise would not have been part of the optimal portfolio allocation. 相似文献
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The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 individual professional forecasters since 1999, the average absolute forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5–10 basis points between the best and worst-performers across the sample. This heterogeneity is found to be related to both the skills of analysts – such as their educational and employment backgrounds – and to geography. In particular, forecasters located in regions which experience more idiosyncratic economic conditions perform worse in anticipating monetary policy. This evidence is indicative that limited attention and heterogeneous priors are present even for anticipating important events such as monetary policy decisions. 相似文献
77.
Many studies have proposed the use of the relationship metaphor to enhance the understanding of the relationship between consumers and brands. However, few studies have empirically tested consumer–brand relationship models. In this paper, the authors argue that the success of developing empirical models of consumer–brand relationships depends on the adequacy of the metaphoric transfer. The authors compare two models of consumer–brand relationships—the brand relationship quality (BRQ) model and the relationship investment (RI) model on the basis of empirical fit and model interpretation. They modify both models to better accommodate less involving relationships and test them in two studies. The findings suggest that the modified RI model offers a straightforward interpretation of consumer–brand relationships that vary in intensity. The results from the BRQ model are less clear, though further refinements of the model demonstrates the increased potential of the BRQ model compared with traditional attitude models to explain relationships between consumers and brands. 相似文献