Laws of large numbers for Hayashi–Yoshida-type functionals

The main object in the statistical analysis of high-frequency financial data are sums of functionals of increments of stochastic processes, and statistical inference is based on the asymptotic behaviour of these sums as the mesh of the observation times tends to zero. Inspired by the famous Hayashi–Yoshida estimator for the quadratic covariation based on two asynchronously observed stochastic processes, we investigate similar sums for general functionals. We find that our results differ from corresponding results for synchronous observations, a case which has been well studied in the literature, and we observe that the asymptotic behaviour in the setting of asynchronous observations is not only determined by the nature of the functional, but also depends crucially on the asymptotics of the observation scheme. Several examples are discussed, including the case of \(f(x_{1},x_{2}) = |x_{1}|^{p_{1}} |x_{2}|^{p_{2}}\) which has various applications in empirical finance.

     

IQ and corporate insiders’ decisions to time insider and outsider trading

We examine how corporate insiders’ cognitive ability (IQ) affects their decisions to time insider and outsider trading before abnormal stock price changes. Our analysis of archival data on male corporate insiders in Sweden shows they are less prone to time their insider selling and to sell in larger amounts, before abnormal stock price declines as IQ increases. We also find that insiders with a higher IQ are better at timing their outsider buying. Taken together, our results show that corporate insiders’ IQ affects their trading decisions differently, depending on whether they are trading in their insider or outsider stocks.     

Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish national environmental objectives

The aim of the present paper is to present and evaluate a method for encouraging long-term thinking and considerations of a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental objectives that national authorities are responsible for. They are evaluated annually and also in-depth every fourth year. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing a more long-term thinking in the work with the environmental objectives, tested in the in-depth evaluation 2008. An experience was that it is difficult to design a collective scenario work in a case with a wide variety of objectives and with individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies in authorities work. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies competence and thinking at the authorities. Another experience is that despite the difficulties, experts at the authorities did start thinking more in terms of opportunities with futures studies. A general conclusion from the work was that there is an interest and need for futures studies at the authorities in charge of the environmental objectives. The possibly most important conclusion from this project was that the authorities need to build up their own competences in futures studies.     

Do auditors constrain intertemporal income shifting in private companies?*

This study investigates the association between private company auditing and intertemporal income shifting. Using a large reduction in the Finnish corporate tax rate as a strong incentive for income shifting and financial statement data coupled with proprietary information from the tax authorities, we analyse accruals and cost stickiness of small private companies. Our results reveal significant differences in accrual income shifting between audited and unaudited companies, but only among companies that on average could anticipate the tax reduction the most. Further, we find auditors to restrict sticky selling, general, and administrative cost behaviour that we hypothesise is associated with illegal actions. Additional tests expose a nontrivial number of incorrectly unaudited companies which are the ones mostly associated with income shifting. Taken together, our study highlights the effects of audit exemption and the importance of enforcement while also suggesting that the audit process is value adding for the tax authorities.     

Ruin probabilities under general investments and heavy-tailed claims

In this paper, the asymptotic decay of finite time ruin probabilities is studied. An insurance company is considered that faces heavy-tailed claims and makes investments in risky assets whose prices evolve according to quite general semimartingales. In this setting, the ruin problem corresponds to determining hitting probabilities for the solution to a randomly perturbed stochastic integral equation. A large deviation result for the hitting probabilities is derived that holds uniformly over a family of semimartingales. This result gives the asymptotic decay of finite time ruin probabilities under sufficiently conservative investment strategies, including ruin-minimizing strategies. In particular, as long as the insurance company invests sufficiently conservatively, the investment strategy has only a moderate impact on the asymptotics of the ruin probability.     

The effectiveness of personalized marketing in online banking: A comparison between search and experience offerings

This study reports the results of personalized online promotions in a context where personalization has not been researched before – in online banking. Genuine online bank customers were shown personalized banner advertisements when they logged in to their online bank account. Three financial offerings consisting of different search and experience attributes were promoted to three groups of customers. We examined the attention, elaboration and choice measures, and compared the effectiveness of personalized banners to default banners, and the online promotions to direct-mail promotions. Despite the goal-directed routines that reflect the dominant customer behaviour in online banking, personalized banners attracted more attention than default banners. Furthermore, messages that promote fairly simple search-type offerings that are easy to apply and are linked to the context in which the promotion occurs are more effective than messages that do not fulfil these criteria. The results offer implications both for research and practice.     

Dynamic portfolio optimization across hidden market regimes

Regime-based asset allocation has been shown to add value over rebalancing to static weights and, in particular, reduce potential drawdowns by reacting to changes in market conditions. The predominant approach in previous studies has been to specify in advance a static decision rule for changing the allocation based on the state of financial markets or the economy. In this article, model predictive control (MPC) is used to dynamically optimize a portfolio based on forecasts of the mean and variance of financial returns from a hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters. There are computational advantages to using MPC when estimates of future returns are updated every time a new observation becomes available, since the optimal control actions are reconsidered anyway. MPC outperforms a static decision rule for changing the allocation and realizes both a higher return and a significantly lower risk than a buy-and-hold investment in various major stock market indices. This is after accounting for transaction costs, with a one-day delay in the implementation of allocation changes, and with zero-interest cash as the only alternative to the stock indices. Imposing a trading penalty that reduces the number of trades is found to increase the robustness of the approach.     

CEO contract design: How do strong principals do it?

We study changes in chief executive officer (CEO) contracts when firms transition from public ownership with dispersed owners to private ownership with strong principals in the form of private equity sponsors. The most significant changes are that a significant portion of equity grants performance-vests based on prespecified measures and that unvested equity is forfeited by fired CEOs. Private equity sponsors do not reduce base salaries, bonuses, and perks, but redesign contracts away from qualitative measures. They use some subjective performance evaluation, do not use indexed or premium options, and do not condition vesting on relative industry performance. We compare the contracts to predictions from contracting theories, and relate our results to discussions of executive compensation reform.     

Zwei Ungleichungen sur Ergänzung des Tchebycheffschen Lemmas

Abstract

Sei ?(x) eine für ? ∞ < x < + ∞ definierte reelle nichtnegative Funktion und