Implementing Fischer Black's Simple Discounting Rule

Corporate managers typically estimate the value of capital projects by discounting the project's expected future net cash flows at the cost of capital. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is generally used to estimate that cost. But, as anyone who has worked on the finance or business development staff of a public company can attest, there are major challenges in applying the CAPM, including largely unresolved questions about what constitutes the “market portfolio,” how to estimate market risk premiums, and how to estimate the betas of projects. In a short article published in Financial Management in 1988, Fischer Black proposed a valuation “discounting rule” that avoids all these problems—one that involves discounting a relatively certain (as opposed to an expected or average) level of operating cash flows at the risk-free rate. But Black's article does not address the question of how to calculate these “certainty equivalent” or “conditional” cash flows. In this article, the authors propose a way of implementing Black's rule that involves estimating the “conditional” cash flows in a three-step procedure:

• • Find a benchmark security that correlates with the project's cash flows;
• • Estimate the percentiles of the distribution in which the benchmark return equals the risk-free rate over different investment horizons;
• • Use information from corporate managers to assess the cash flows that define the same percentiles in the cash flow distributions.

As the authors point out, the virtue of Black's rule is that it shifts the focus of the analyst away from the assessment of discount factors and puts it squarely on the more challenging, and arguably more relevant, problem of estimating the project's cash flows.     

Trigger happy or gun shy? Dissolving common‐value partnerships with Texas shootouts

The operating agreements of many business ventures include clauses to facilitate the exit of joint owners. In so‐called Texas Shootouts, one owner names a single buy‐sell price and the other owner is compelled to either buy or sell shares at that named price. Despite their prevalence in real‐world contracts, Texas Shootouts are rarely triggered. In our theoretical framework, sole ownership is more efficient than joint ownership. Negotiations are frustrated, however, by the presence of asymmetric information. In equilibrium, owners eschew buy‐sell offers in favor of simple offers to buy or to sell shares and bargaining failures arise. Experimental data support these findings.     

Comparing a Traditional IRA and a Roth IRA: Theory Versus Practice

Financial planners often advise their clients to first take advantage of employer‐sponsored 401(k) plans, especially those with matching employer contributions. They often recommend next that clients consider a traditional or Roth IRA, depending on their current eligibility and tax bracket. Generally, the traditional IRA tends to be preferable to the Roth IRA if one expects to be in a lower tax bracket during the retirement versus the contribution years. This preference could be impacted by the theoretical or the practical assumptions one could make as to the tax bracket effect, minimum distribution requirements, and the impact of withdrawals on the amount of Social Security benefits taxed. This research compares the traditional and the Roth IRA, examining both the theoretical and practical assumptions of client behavior. The results indicate that the best choice between the types of IRAs depends on whether the investor's actual behavior is consistent with theory or practice.     

Contributing Factors to the Spread of Sexually Transmitted Diseases

A bstract .   Economists have long studied the determinants and effects of income transfers. This article examines an indirect effect of welfare payments on participating individuals: an increase in the incidence of sexually transmitted disease ( STD ) rates.
Several studies have found a significant and positive link between the size of welfare benefits and out-of-wedlock fertility rates. Higher welfare payments reduce the cost of bearing and raising a child, and thus reduce the full cost of engaging in unprotected sex. An unintended consequence of unprotected sex is exposure to contagious diseases. This implies that states with higher welfare payments per child will experience higher rates of STDs.
We test this hypothesis using statewide data on the incidence of three types of bacterial STDs, chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis, for the years 1994 through 1998. The empirical specification is based on the standard microeconomic model of utility-maximizing behavior. The included explanatory variables are demographic proxies reflecting differences in state population characteristics. These characteristics capture unobservable or intrinsically unmeasureable differences in the perceived costs and benefits of engaging in unprotected sex.
The explanatory variable of primary interest is the size of the real welfare payment per recipient. Our empirical results indicate that states with higher real welfare payments are associated with greater rates of STDs.     

Person–organization fit and the war for talent: does diversity management make a difference?

This study investigates the importance of diversity management in applicants' job choice decisions. According to the person–organization fit theory, individuals make assessments of fit between their personal values and the values of the organizations, and they make job choice decisions based on these assessments. A survey of 113 MBA job seekers concluded that women and ethnic minorities found diversity management to be important when accepting offers of employment. In addition, high achievers and new immigrants rated organizations with diversity management as more attractive as potential employers. The findings suggest a need to place a higher emphasis on diversity management in women and minority applicant attraction.     

Performance Implications of IJV Boards: A Contingency Perspective

This study draws from the corporate governance literature to investigate the implications of board involvement for international joint ventures (IJVs). We extend recent corporate governance research on the value of board involvement by investigating unique sources of complexity related to the nature of the IJV. We argue and find that board involvement can enhance the performance of IJVs, particularly for collaborations that are complex in nature due to their broad functional scope as well the level of market overlap between IJV parents. We complement recent research on joint venture control that has focused on the antecedents and types of control, as well as studies on formal (e.g. contractual safeguards and monitoring) and informal governance mechanisms (e.g. trust) by providing empirical evidence that IJV board involvement is valuable when directors undertake their control and coordination responsibilities. We advance corporate governance research by providing evidence that joint ventures possess several unique characteristics that shape the value of board involvement, thereby showing that applications of corporate governance theory to joint ventures are useful, but should be made with care.     

Neoliberalization,Housing Institutions and Variegated Gentrification: How the ‘Third Wave’ Broke in Amsterdam

Neil Smith argues that in the last two decades gentrification has become a generalized global urban phenomenon. His theory is at a high level of abstraction, as it links urban gentrification to globalization, financial capitalism and neoliberalization. With these global processes, all cities have experienced ‘third wave’ gentrification. The theory, however, leaves little room for variegations of gentrification, apart from characterizing geographical differences as idiosyncrasies or as minor variations. This downplays the role of intervening mechanisms that impinge upon the pursuit and social outcomes of gentrification. This article aims to amend abstract theory by looking at Amsterdam from a historical institutional perspective. In Amsterdam, gentrification was particularly made possible by a process of neoliberalization within the housing system. However, as institutional change is incremental and based on layering and conversion, many older institutional arrangements remain in place. These arrangements tend to slow gentrification and assuage social consequences. Nevertheless, neoliberal modifications to the housing system have been accelerating the pursuit of gentrification. Current policies will very likely lead to exclusionary displacement.     

The relationship between performance appraisal criterion specificity and statistical evidence of discrimination

Plaintiffs' expert witnesses in EEO cases involving performance appraisals often claim that adverse impact is a result of the type of rating format used. Their theory is that more specific rating criteria will lead to lessened adverse impact. We tested that theory by comparing data from a simple category‐based rating system against data from a standards‐based Work Planning and Review appraisal system with over 248,000 performance appraisals of state employees. Using logistic regression and statistical definitions of prima facie discrimination, we found no support for the hypothesis that adverse impact is materially affected by criterion specificity. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.