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231.
In the Bayesian approach to model selection and hypothesis testing, the Bayes factor plays a central role. However, the Bayes factor is very sensitive to prior distributions of parameters. This is a problem especially in the presence of weak prior information on the parameters of the models. The most radical consequence of this fact is that the Bayes factor is undetermined when improper priors are used. Nonetheless, extending the non-informative approach of Bayesian analysis to model selection/testing procedures is important both from a theoretical and an applied viewpoint. The need to develop automatic and robust methods for model comparison has led to the introduction of several alternative Bayes factors. In this paper we review one of these methods: the fractional Bayes factor (O'Hagan, 1995). We discuss general properties of the method, such as consistency and coherence. Furthermore, in addition to the original, essentially asymptotic justifications of the fractional Bayes factor, we provide further finite-sample motivations for its use. Connections and comparisons to other automatic methods are discussed and several issues of robustness with respect to priors and data are considered. Finally, we focus on some open problems in the fractional Bayes factor approach, and outline some possible answers and directions for future research. 相似文献
232.
Measuring labor and capital services accurately is essential to obtaining reliable estimates of production functions and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Using data on the operating time of capital, a series that exists for the French business sector, greatly improves the measurement of effective capital services in production. The ensuing estimation results are consistent with Cobb–Douglas technology under constant returns to scale, with the factor elasticities not statistically different from their income shares. In the same framework, TFP growth is estimated as a latent variable and found to be less volatile than accounting residuals, negatively correlated with employment, and free of cyclicality. It is statistically best estimated as a first-order autoregressive process, with an autoregressive coefficient of 0.95. Total factor productivity growth was estimated to have declined steadily between the mid-1970s and mid-1990s, but the rate of decline has diminished since then. 相似文献
233.
The techniques of Borgan (1979) are extended to cover data with seasonal variations. Examples are given, and it is suggested that the formulae presented here give smoother results than those traditionally employed to deal with economic time series subject to seasonal variations. 相似文献
234.
Herbert Grubel 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2013,22(2):217-224
We examine the output elasticity of infrastructure for four South Asian countries viz., India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka using panel cointegration techniques for the period 1980–2005. In this context, we develop an index of infrastructure stocks and investigate the impact of infrastructure on output. The study finds a long-run equilibrium relationship between output and infrastructure along with other relevant variables, such as gross domestic capital formation (GDCF), labor force, international trade and human capital. The results reveal that GDCF, labor force, export and expenditure on human capital exhibit a positive contribution to output. More importantly, infrastructure development contributes significantly to output growth in South Asia. Further, the panel causality analysis shows that there is mutual feedback between total output and infrastructure development. 相似文献
235.
Fernando Santiago Claudia De Fuentes Gabriela Dutrénit Natalia Gras 《Economics of Innovation and New Technology》2017,26(3):247-268
Barriers to innovation are heterogeneous, of financial and non-financial nature. The importance of barriers to innovation and their actual influence on innovation depend on firms’ characteristics such as sectoral affiliation, technological behavior and their response to perceived obstacles to innovation. Firms either continue to engage in innovation, or they avoid the activity altogether. This paper explored the nature and perceived importance of the obstacles to innovation that firms confront, in a developing-country context; we build on survey data about firms in Mexico. Our findings suggest that two kinds of policy interventions should help offset a firm’s perception of barriers to innovation. On the one hand, policies should enhance the innovation capacity of firms interested in innovation; on the other hand, policies need to tackle factors that reduce the interest of firms in innovation. Policies that boost demand for locally generated innovations would assist in achieving both these goals. 相似文献
236.
We apply the collective consumption model of Browning et al. (2010) to analyse economic well-being and poverty among the elderly. The model focuses on individual preferences, a consumption technology that captures the economies of scale of living in a couple, and a sharing rule that governs the intra-household allocation of resources. The model is applied to a time series of Dutch consumption expenditure surveys. Our empirical results indicate substantial economies of scale and a wife's share that is increasing in total expenditures. We further calculated two sets of poverty rates: one based on the collective consumption model and one based on the traditional approach with a standard equivalence scale. Poverty among widowers is underestimated by the traditional approach. The same is true for women (men) in elderly couples for the first (later) time periods in our analysis. Finally, we analysed the impact of becoming a widow(er). Based on cross-sectional evidence, we find that the drop in material well-being following the husband's death is rather substantial for women. For men, the picture is reversed. 相似文献
237.
With a sample of Australian at‐risk gamblers, this research examines the impact of gender and individual difference in experiential avoidance (EA; cognitive and emotional suppression) on the processing of fear appeals. Study 1, through thematic analysis, explores fear appeal perceptions among at‐risk gamblers. The results identify that relevant threats, such as social and psychological, should be integrated into fear‐inducing advertising stimuli. Study 2 uses multigroup comparisons in structural equation modeling (SEM) to test the robustness of the revised protection motivation model (RPMM) in predicting the effectiveness of fear appeals to induce help‐seeking intentions in at‐risk gamblers. This research examines the boundary conditions of the RPMM through the moderating roles of gender and EA. The results provide evidence that fear partially mediates the impact of perceived susceptibility (PS) on help‐seeking intentions in low experiential avoiders, whereas high experimental avoiders resist fear elicitation. Furthermore, evoked fear does not lead to help‐seeking intentions in male at‐risk gamblers. In female at‐risk gamblers, while fear prompts help‐seeking intentions, PS (i.e., probability of harm) does not translate to behavioral intentions via fear. For both genders and low and high experiential avoiders, cognitive appraisals of PS significantly and positively impact help‐seeking intentions. This research demonstrates the unique roles of gender and EA on fear appeal effectiveness in at‐risk gamblers. 相似文献
238.
Pere Riera Giovanni Signorello Mara Thiene Pierre-Alexandre Mahieu Ståle Navrud Pamela Kaval Benedicte Rulleau Robert Mavsar Lívia Madureira Jürgen Meyerhoff Peter Elsasser Sandra Notaro Maria De Salvo Marek Giergiczny Simona Dragoi 《Journal of Forest Economics》2012,18(4):259-270
The European COST Action E45 on European Forest Externalities (EUROFOREX) participants developed a set of good practice guidelines for the non-market valuation of forests, elaborating on stated and revealed preference methodologies, as well as benefit transfer and meta-analytical procedures. This article presents a summary of the guidelines. 相似文献
239.
Marieke De Mooij 《国际广告杂志》2013,32(2):183-184
One aspect of globalisation is the convergence of income, media and technology, which in turn is expected to lead to homogeneous consumer behaviour. This convergence thesis is increasingly questioned. With converging national wealth there still is substantial variation of consumer behaviour across nations, which is not disappearing. Variation is found in all aspects of consumer behaviour: in consumption of packaged goods, in usage and ownership of durable goods, and in media behaviour. With disappearing differences of GNP per capita, culture is a powerful explaining variable. This paper provides evidence of divergence of consumer behaviour rather than convergence, it describes the influence of culture, how cultural variables can explain variance of consumption, and presents the consequences for international brand management and for global advertising. 相似文献
240.