PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF WORKFORCE-BASED DISRUPTIONS AND INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS OF INTERDEPENDENT RIPPLE EFFECTS

This paper extends the formulation of the input–output model to account for events that cause time varying and probabilistic workforce disruptions. One example of such an event is a pandemic, because the rates with which it affects the working population vary from period to period and are coupled with uncertainties. To address such complexities, the paper develops two extensions: (i) a method of translating unavailable workforce into a measure of sector productivity disruption, and (ii) a simulation framework to account for the possible variations in economic output losses. These extensions are implemented via a MATLAB program to simulate a pandemic scenario in the Commonwealth of Virginia.     

Private insurance subsidies and public health care markets: evidence from Canada

In this study I examine the effects of government subsidies to employer-provided health insurance on the decision to purchase insurance, and on utilization of publicly funded health services. Using unique variation in tax subsidies across Canadian provinces as an instrument, I estimate the effects of these subsidies on the demand for supplemental health insurance and their extended effects on the decision to use publicly-funded health services. My results show that government subsidies through tax exemptions have significant effects on the decision to purchase insurance. Furthermore, additional insurance policies lead to moral hazard in the use of publicly funded health services. JEL Classification: H2,H4, I1     

Modeling the Response of Gasoline-Crude Oil Price Crack Spread Macroeconomic Shocks

To date, considerable attention has been given to evaluating movements in crude oil and gasoline prices and in determining the significance of fundamental state variables that may influence these prices. This paper differs from the existing literature by identifying the response of the single-product gasoline-crude oil crack spread to unexpected changes in real output growth, inflation, the corporate default risk premium, and the stance of monetary policy utilizing the econometric techniques of vector autoregression and generalized impulse response analysis. The generalized impulse response method does not impose a priori restrictions as to the relative importance each of the state variables may play in the process of transmitting unexpected information from the macroeconomic variables to the crack spread. The results show the extent and the magnitude of the relationship between the crack spread being investigated and macroeconomic factors.     

Competing industries in islands a new tourism approach

Many islands host both tourism and offshore finance, but their coexistence has been little researched. This paper examines their relationship via a case study of the British Channel Island of Jersey. Both sectors require labor, land, and capital—all frequently scarce in small islands. The study considers the nature of the relationship and resource competition. In light of the unusual context of small polities and the political power of external actors, it also analyzes the dynamics of tourism, offshore finance, and the state in islands. The overall impact of the relationship between tourism and offshore finance is further examined, to suggest how this affects islands’ economic development.     

Do insurers respond to active purchasing? Evidence from the Massachusetts health insurance exchange

Health insurance markets face continued challenges with high premiums and limited insurer competition. We describe a unique set of “active purchasing” policies used by Massachusetts' pioneer health insurance exchange to shape the rules of competition and reward lower-price insurers with additional customers. We provide evidence that these policies significantly influenced insurer pricing. Between 2010 and 2013, over 80% of insurer prices were set exactly at or within 1% of pricing thresholds created by active purchasing policies. A key “limited choice” policy was associated with a 16%–20% reduction in average insurance prices relative to comparison markets in 2012–2014. Insurers achieved these price cuts partly through cost reductions via narrower provider networks and partly through reduced profit margins.     

Cementing the case for collusion under the National Recovery Administration

Macroeconomists have long debated the aggregate effects of anti-competitive provisions under the “Codes of Fair Conduct” promulgated by the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA). Despite the emphasis on these provisions, there is only limited evidence documenting any actual effects at the micro-level. We use a combination of narrative evidence and a novel plant-level dataset from 1929, 1931, 1933, and 1935 to study the effects of the NIRA in the cement industry. We develop a test for collusion specific to this particular industry. We find strong evidence that before the NIRA, the costs of a plant's nearest neighbor had a positive effect on a plant's own price, suggesting competition. After the NIRA, this effect is completely eliminated, with no correlation between a plant's own price and its neighbor's cost.     

Valuation of digital goods during the coronavirus outbreak in the United States

We examine how the Coronavirus pandemic affected consumer valuation of digital services. Governments responded to the pandemic with various forms of lockdowns and social distancing, leading to increased dependence on digital services for work, social engagement, and leisure activities. We identify consumer valuations through surveys where respondents express their reservation prices for digital services such as email, search, and social media. We compare our results to surveys done in 2016 and 2017 and find an about five-fold increase in valuations.     

The association between cost of debt and Hong Kong politically connected firms

This paper investigates the association between Hong Kong politically connected (PCON) firms and their cost of debt and find these firms are associated with significantly lower interest rates being charged by lenders compared to other (non-PCON) firms. We compare our results with earlier investigations of Malaysian and U.S. PCON firms and find that our results are consistent with the results of the U.S. but inconsistent with that of Malaysia. Our results suggest that the economic wealth, the extent of political power, and the pervasiveness of firms having political connections could account for the cross-country differences between the cost of debt and PCON firms.     

Statistical tests of distributional scaling properties for financial return series

Existing empirical evidence of distributional scaling in financial returns has helped motivate the use of multifractal processes for modelling return processes. However, this evidence has relied on informal tests that may be unable to reliably distinguish multifractal processes from other related classes. The current paper develops a formal statistical testing procedure for determining which class of fractal process is most consistent with the distributional scaling properties in a given sample of data. Our testing methodology consists of a set of test statistics, together with a model-based bootstrap resampling scheme to obtain sample p-values. We demonstrate in Monte Carlo exercises that the proposed testing methodology performs well in a wide range of testing environments relevant for financial applications. Finally, the methodology is applied to study the scaling properties of a data-set of intraday equity index and exchange rate returns. The empirical results suggest that the scaling properties of these return series may be inconsistent with purely multifractal processes.