Supplementary feeding in rural Egypt--the health system in action

Of the several direct interventions against malnutrition, supplementary feeding is the most frequently employed in poor countries. If properly designed, implemented, and integrated with other services, the allocation of supplementary foods can contribute significantly to the alleviation of malnutrition. The authors survey the ambitious efforts of Egypt's Ministry of Health to make food available to chidlren at risk. These efforts are likely to have disappointing results unless the process of distribution is accompanied by improved program design and management, and greater sensitivity to the culture of health care delivery at the grassroots level.     

Efficient estimation of income distribution parameters

The parameters of several families of distributions are estimated by means of minimum χ²; use is made of random samples taken from Dutch income-earning groups in 1973. The numerical search routine used, is the Complex method due to Box. The χ² function is evaluated by standard numerical integration procedures. The lognormal and the Gamma families are rejected because of a poor fit. The log t and the log Pearson IV families are introduced. This results in a considerable improvement of χ² critical levels. The generalized Gamma and the Champernowne function describe the income distribution reasonably well in some cases.     

Self-monitoring,norms, and attitudes as influences on consumer complaining

Reactions of consumers to marketplace problems vary widely despite the frequent similarity of sources of dissatisfaction. The results of two studies designed to investigate the determinants of consumer inclinations to complain are presented. Two alternative social-psychological explanations of behavior employing self-monitoring, moral and social norms,and attitudes as predictor variables are examined.     

A modelling approach to planning product innovative research

Abstract . The generation of ideas for new products and their subsequent survival through a number of evaluation and development stages are—at least in part—random processes. To examine the implications of this for research planning and resource allocation a model has been constructed to simulate the progress of ideas through such an evaluation system using Monte Carlo methods. Use of the model on such typical product-innovative fields as a 'new venture' portfolio and effect-chemicals R & D has yielded valuable insights into variability in output of ventures suitable for commercialization, the degree of confidence which may be placed in achieving a desired objective, and its relation to costs and resource allocations at different stages of the process. The model also allows examination of sensitivities to the assumptions made in its construction and to data used as input.     

Bayesian estimation of manufacturing effects in a fuel economy model

The analysis of fuel economy data results in estimates of the technology utilization by manufacturer and vehicle line. The analysis employs a hierarchical Bayesian regression model with random components representing vehicle lines and manufacturers. The model includes predictor variables which describe vehicle features, such as type of transmission, and vehicle line specific measurements, such as compression ratio. Non-informative priors with novel modifications are used and the Bayes estimates are obtained by use of Gibbs sampling. The results show there is substantial variability among manufacturers in efficiently utilizing technology for fuel economy.     

International Evidence on the Predictability of Stock Returns

This article examines the predictability of stock returns using international stock market data from eighteen countries. The study finds that the ability of dividend yields to predict stock returns increases as the return horizon lengthens from one month to forty-eight months. These results add to earlier ones, based on U.S. data only, showing that predictability grows with the return horizon. The study also explores why the observed pattern of predictability arises and provides evidence supporting the reasons suggested by Fama and French.     

Livestock pricing policy in sub-Saharan Africa: objectives,instruments and impact in five countries

Livestock pricing policies in many developing countries are often instituted without a good appreciation of the consequences of such policies for allocative efficiency, output and trade. This paper evaluates, in a comparative cross-country context, the objectives and instruments of livestock pricing policy in five sub-Saharan African countries: Ivory Coast, Mali, Nigeria, Sudan and Zimbabwe during the period 1970-86. It assesses the extent to which pricing policy objectives have been attained, and also estimates the effects of price interventions on output, consumption, trade and government revenues in order to draw out lessons for the future. The empirical results indicate that in comparison with real border prices, a certain degree of success was achieved in stabilising real domestic producer prices in the study countries. The results also show that since the early 1980s, there has been a gradual shift away from taxation of producers. However, consumers still appear to gain as much as producers in three of the study countries, with negative consequences for foreign exchange earnings and government revenues. The analysis reveals the importance of domestic inflation and exchange rates as key variables for livestock pricing policies and highlights the need to address the macroeconomic imbalances that cause exchange rate distortions and high domestic inflation at the same time that direct price distortions are being tackled.