Contextual Framing and Monetary Incentives in Field Experiments on Risk Preferences: Evidence from German Farmers

Recent studies cast doubt on the ability of abstract experiments to predict decision‐making in the field. Thus, scholars have argued for more ‘realism’ by introducing context to field experiments. Yet, such realism may work against the induced values of monetary incentives in economic experiments. It is an open question whether contextual framing works best with or without inducing values, through methods such as the use of monetary incentives. Using a sample of 146 German farmers, we compare experimentally the predictive power of a framed lottery in an agricultural context vs. using an abstract version. For one half of the sample, lotteries are incentivised; for the other half, they are hypothetical. Although risk preferences differ between treatments, all four lottery tasks correlate poorly with farmers’ real‐world use of risk management instruments such as harvest or hail insurance. Subjects who start with an agricultural framing are willing to take significantly greater risks in the lotteries. More generally, our findings cast doubt on the ability of lottery tasks to predict risk‐taking in the field.     

Rupture or Continuity? Modern and Postmodern Planning in Toronto

The literature on the transition to postmodernism, postfordism and participatory planning stresses the value of the economic and planning process shifts that have occurred in the late 1960s and early 1970s. This paper compares two periods of planning and urban development in Toronto: one running from 1959 to 1962, at the height of modernism, fordism and expert-driven planning, and the other, from 1989 to 1992, set within the postmodern, postfordist and participatory planning era. In line with expectations arising from the literature, the study reveals stark distinctions between the two periods. It documents the breaking up of the modern consensus around the progress ideology into a postmodern constellation of values. As a result, the range of issues debated on the planning scene was much broader over the second period than over the first. Overall, however, results point to a mixture of continuity and change between the two periods and thus diverge from this literature’s strong emphasis on transition. Contrary to expectations, citizen mobilization was pervasive in both periods, although there were major differences in the nature of activism and in the issues that were raised. Over the first period most activism originated from ratepayer organizations dedicated to the protection of single-family-home neighbourhoods from encroachments, whereas the second period featured, along with such associations, advocacy groups championing environmental and social causes. The two periods are also distinguished by different planning implementation capacities. Whereas in the first period, planning had the means to implement its visions, this was no longer the case in the second period. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, planning was thus incapable of aligning urban development with its environmental and social ideals, which meant that, by default, planning practice over the second period proceeded pretty much according to land-use and transportation principles evolved in the early postwar decades. In sum, distinctions between the two periods were far more evident in the discourse than in the implementation sphere. — Les recherches sur la transition vers le postmodernisme, le postfordisme et la planification participative soulignent la valeur des changements qui ont pris place à la fin des années soixante et au début des années soixante-dix. Cet article compare deux périodes de planification et de dévelopment urbain à Toronto: une qui va de 1959 à 1962, durant l’apogée du modernisme, du fordisme et de la planification contrôlée par les experts, et l’autre, de 1989 à 1992, à l’époque du postmodernisme, du postfordisme et de la planification participative. En accord avec les prévisions émanant des recherches, cette étude révèle des distinctions nettes entre les deux périodes. Elle documente le morcellement du consensus moderne autour l’idéologie du progrès et le changement en faveur d’une constellation de valeurs postmodernes. Il s’ensuit que le champ de problèmes discutés en relation avec la planification était beaucoup plus étendu durant la seconde période que durant la première. Dans l’ensemble, cependant, les résultats indiquent un mélange de continuité et de changement entre les deux périodes et divergent donc de la forte emphase sur la transition que l’on trouve dans les recherches. Contairement aux prévisions, la mobilisation des citoyens était omniprésente à Toronto pendant les deux périodes, mais il y avait des différences importantes quant à la nature de l’activisme et dans les problèmes soulevés. Durant la première période, la plus grande part de l’activisme provenait des organisations de contribuables vouées à la protection des quartiers d’habitations contre les empiètements, alors que la seconde période comprenait, en plus de ces organisations, des groupes de soutien aux causes de l’environnement et aux causes sociales. Les deux périodes sont également distinctes en termes de mise en oeuvre. Alors que dans la première période les urbanistes avaient les moyens de mettre leurs idées à exécution, ce n’était plus le cas dans la seconde. Vers la fin des années quatre-vingt et le début des années quatre-vingt-dix, la planification ne pouvait pas intégrer les développements urbains et ses idéaux sociaux et environnementaux. Par défaut, la pratique de la planification durant la seconde période a fonctionnée selon les principes d’utilisation des terrains et du transport développés dans les premières décennies de l’après-guerre. En somme, les différences entre les deux périodes sont beaucoup plus visibles au niveau du discours qu’au niveau de l’application.     

Dynamic Factor Demands and Technology Measurement under Arbitrary Expectations

We present a dynamic model of factor demands based on expected discounted costs minimization. While making only very mild assumptions on expectations and technology, we are able to establish a duality relationship between contemporary factor demands and the technology, and we provide formula for easily recovering marginal products, returns to scale, and technological change from estimated factor demands. Parametrization and implementation are illustrated in a detailed example.     

Costos del despido y ventajas de la medición con métodos directos

Es frecuente achacar los malos resultados del mercado laboral a los costos del despido y a las normas que rigen las relaciones de trabajo. Ahora bien, las investigaciones acerca de las consecuencias económicas de los despidos prestan muy poca atención a la calidad y la precisión de las mediciones, y no arrojan indicaciones concluyentes. Después de pasar revista a los métodos actuales de medición, el autor sostiene que es muy conveniente usar métodos cuantitativos directos a fin de complementar las mediciones indirectas habituales. Para ilustrar esta afirmación se vale de una encuesta efectuada recientemente en Australia.     

An Investigation of Policy Administrative Costs Using Panel Data for the English Environmentally Sensitive Areas

This paper explores transactions costs in the context of agri‐environmental policy schemes based on management agreements. While transactions costs encompass a wide range of organisational costs, the focus here is on the public‐sector administrative costs of policy implementation. Empirical administrative cost functions were estimated to investigate the factors affecting the magnitude of such costs, using panel data spanning five years for the 22 English Environmentally Sensitive Areas. The extent of participation appears to be important in explaining administrative cost variability across areas. The data suggested the existence of size economics with regard to the numbers of agreements made in any one ESA, and a significant effect of scheme experience in exerting downwards‐pressure on administrative costs. Policy budgeting and evaluation should take into account the non‐trivial costs of organisation, particularly if agri‐environmental schemes based on the procurement of conservation goods through management agreements are to be extended in future.     

International portfolio diversification: Currency,industry and country effects revisited

We examine the relative importance of country, industry, world market and currency risk factors for international stock returns. Our approach focuses on testing the mean-variance efficiency of the various factor portfolios. An unconditional analysis does not show significant differences between country, industry and world portfolios, nor any role for currency risk factors. However, when we allow expected returns, volatilities and correlations to vary over time, we find that equity returns are mainly driven by global industry and currency risk factors. We propose a novel test to evaluate the relative benefits of alternative investment strategies and find that including currencies is critical to take full advantage of the diversification benefits afforded by international markets.     

Least Squares Asymptotics in Spurious and Cointegrated Panel Regressions with Common and Idiosyncratic Stochastic Trends*

This article makes an analytical study of the effects of the presence of both common and idiosyncratic stochastic trends on the pooled least squares estimator. The results suggest that the usual result of asymptotic normality depends critically on the absence of the common stochastic trend.     

Fertility and female employment dynamics in Europe: the effect of using alternative econometric modeling assumptions

We investigate the direct and long‐run effects of fertility on employment in Europe, estimating dynamic models of labor supply under different assumptions regarding the exogeneity of fertility and modeling assumptions related to initial conditions, unobserved heterogeneity and serial correlation in the error terms. We find overall large direct and long‐run effects of giving birth on employment probabilities, and these effects differ considerably across countries. We find that within countries the results are sensitive to the statistical assumption made on initial conditions, the inclusion of serial correlation and the assumption of strict exogeneity of children. However, the pattern across countries is robust to these assumptions. We show that such patterns are largely consistent with prevailing institutional differences related to the flexibility of the labor markets and family policies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The development of the Personality Audit: a psychodynamic multiple feedback assessment instrument

The Personality Audit (PA) was developed to meet a need for a relatively simple multiple feedback instrument that could clarify the various motivational needs of executives. Using a psychodynamic approach to leadership, the PA allows the test-taker to assess him- or herself in seven personality dimensions important in human behaviour and to identify personal ‘blind spots’. The resulting insights can be used to formulate appropriate leadership development goals.

The objective of this paper is to describe the design and psychometric properties of the PA. This instrument, in contrast with other tools that can be used to clarify the inner theatre of individuals, is designed not only to report information given by the test-taker but also to reflect the perceptions of observers representing both the test-taker's public and private spheres. This paper describes in detail the conceptual foundations of the questionnaire, the psychometric methods used to confirm its validity and reliability, and possible directions for future research.