Separation of small and large claims on the basis of collective models

This paper is inspired by two papers of Riegel who proposed to consider the paid and incurred loss development of the individual claims and to use a filter in order to separate small and large claims and to construct loss development squares for the paid or incurred small or large claims and for the numbers of large claims. We show that such loss development squares can be constructed from collective models for the accident years. Moreover, under certain assumptions on these collective models, we show that a development pattern exists for each of these loss development squares, which implies that various methods of loss reserving can be used for prediction and that the chain ladder method is a natural method for the prediction of future numbers of large claims.     

A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages

We employ spatial econometrics techniques to investigate to what extent countries’ economic and geographical relations affect their stock market co-movements. Among the relations that we analyze, bilateral trade proves to be best suited to capture co-variations in returns. We find a strong effect of a unit shock to three regionally dominant countries, namely the US, the UK, and Japan, on other countries through the trade linkage. The degree of stock market dependence increases and the importance of proximity decreases over time and during recessions. We also analyze several regional crises and find a large impact of Thailand on its trade neighbors during the Asian crisis.     

Price-matching policies: An empirical case

Promises by retailers to match the prices of their competitors give an impression of fierce price competition. These policies, however, may deter rivals from cutting prices because the threat of price matching makes it more likely that market share will not be gained. This paper empirically tests these two conflicting theories using data collected from grocery stores in a market where several stores had announced that they would match the prices of the low-price supermarket. The evidence supports the theory that price-matching policies help supermarkets avoid price competition and therefore lead to generally higher prices.     

A Spatial Theory of Positive and Negative Campaigning

In order to explore the content of electoral campaigns, this paper makes two modifications to Hotelling's model of spatial competition. First, we assume that agents inherit initial locations and engage in costly relocation. Second, an agent's relocation is affected by her rival's actions. We investigate how a candidate allocates resources between positive campaigning—which influences voters' perceptions of her own ideology—and negative campaigning—which influences her opponent's perceived ideology. Our theory predicts that the candidate who is perceived as having less attractive personal attributes runs a relatively more negative campaign. The theory's implications are illustrated for the 1988 presidential election.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: C7, H0.     

Putting one-to-one marketing to work: Personalization, customization, and choice

The tailoring of a firm’s marketing mix to the individual customer is the essence of one-to-one marketing. In this paper, we distinguish between two forms of one-to-one marketing: personalization and customization. Personalization occurs when the firm decides what marketing mix is suitable for the individual. It is usually based on previously collected customer data. Customization occurs when the customer proactively specifies one or more elements of his or her marketing mix. We summarize key challenges and knowledge gaps in understanding both firm and customer choices in one-to-one markets. We conclude with a summary of research opportunities.     

Stock returns and inflation with supply and demand disturbances

We account for the relation between stock returns and inflationwith two independent disturbances: supply shocks and demandshocks. Supply shocks reflect real output shocks and cause anegative relation between stock returns and inflation, whiledemand shocks are mainly due to monetary shocks and generatea positive relation between stock returns and inflation. Weshow, both theoretically and empirically, that the stock return-inflationrelation varies over time and across countries, depending onthe relative importance of the two types of shocks. Our empiricalevidence is based on pre- and postwar periods in the UnitedStates, as well as the postwar period in the United Kingdom,Japan, Germany.     

Music as a Service as an Alternative to Music Piracy?

Despite increasing acceptance of digital channels, total sales in the music business decreased by 31 % from 2004 to 2010. Music piracy is still considered one of the main causes for this. However, several studies found no effects or even positive effects of illegal downloading on record sales. In the past, piracy has been counteracted especially by prosecution and legal offers. Music as a Service (MaaS) represents a new, differing distribution approach in digital music. In contrast to the well-known music platforms for so-called à-la-carte downloads, such as the iTunes Store, MaaS possesses two important characteristics: transmission (streaming instead of downloading) and pricing model (flat rate instead of pay-per-download). Therefore, the consumption of music by means of purchasing and downloading is replaced by a monthly payment service (paid MaaS) and an ad-supported (free MaaS) service. First user surveys suggest that many music pirates are making use of these offers. To find out if MaaS is an attractive distribution channel for music pirates, we developed a model to explain the intention to use MaaS based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. To empirically test this model, we surveyed 132 music pirates. Among others, the outcome shows that the intention to use free MaaS is mainly affected by the attitude towards MaaS, while using paid MaaS is predominantly a result of the influence of users’ closest peers. The attitude towards MaaS is positively influenced by the desire to receive music recommendations, the payment type (in the form of a flat rate model), and the relative advantage of MaaS compared to illegal choices.     

Thrill of victory and agony of defeat: Emotional rewards and sales force compensation

When sales territories are imbalanced, how do salespersons’ emotions-pride and disappointment in goal attainment-affect the choice between sales contests and sales quotas? First, profits in a quota system increase when pride in the weaker territory or disappointment in the stronger territory increase. In a sales contest, by contrast, feelings of disappointment reduce profits regardless of territory characteristics. Second, a simultaneous strengthening of pride and disappointment enhances the advantage of quota over contest created by territory imbalance. However, the interpersonal nature of the contest, pitting a salesperson against a known rival, may generate stronger emotions than a quota-system, with its impersonal sales targets. So, third, a contest may overcome the profit advantages of the quota-system. Fourth, if pride and disappointment are strongly felt because of territory imbalance, handicapping either contest or quota is unprofitable, and moreover, if pride and disappointment are greater in interpersonal situations, handicapping may be more detrimental to a contest than to a sales quota-system.     

The duration of trade revisited

The recent literature on the duration of trade has predominantly analyzed the determinants of trade flow durations using Cox proportional hazards models. The purpose of this article is to show why it is inappropriate to analyze the duration of trade with continuous-time models such as the Cox model, and to propose alternative discrete-time models which are more suitable for estimation. In brief, the Cox model has three major drawbacks when applied to large trade data sets. First, it faces problems in the presence of many tied duration times, leading to biased coefficient estimates and standard errors. Second, it is difficult to properly control for unobserved heterogeneity, which can lead to parameter bias and bias in the estimated survivor function. Third, the Cox model imposes the restrictive and empirically questionable assumption of proportional hazards. In contrast, with discrete-time models there is no problem handling ties; unobserved heterogeneity can be controlled for without difficulty; and the restrictive proportional hazards assumption can easily be bypassed. By replicating an influential study by Besede? and Prusa (J Int Econ 70:339?C358, 2006b), but employing discrete-time models as well as the original Cox model, we find empirical support for each of these arguments against the Cox model. Moreover, when comparing estimation results obtained from a Cox model and our preferred discrete-time specification, we find significant differences in both the predicted survivor functions and the estimated effects of explanatory variables on the hazard. In other words, the choice between models affects the economic conclusions that can be drawn.     

Accounting for Latent Attitudes in Willingness-to-Pay Studies: The Case of Coastal Water Quality Improvements in Tobago

The study of human behaviour and in particular individual choices is of great interest in the field of environmental economics. Substantial attention has been paid to the way in which preferences vary across individuals, and there is a realisation that such differences are at least in part due to underlying attitudes and convictions. While this has been confirmed in empirical work, the methods typically employed are based on the arguably misguided use of responses to attitudinal questions as direct measures of underlying attitudes. As discussed in other literature, especially in transport research, this potentially leads to measurement error and endogeneity bias, and attitudes should rather be treated as latent variables. In this paper, we illustrate the use of such an Integrated Choice and Latent Variable model in the context of beach visitors?? willingness-to-pay for improvements in water quality. We show how a latent attitudinal variable, which we refer to as a pro-intervention attitude, helps explain both the responses from the stated choice exercise as well as answers to various rating questions related to respondent attitudes. The incorporation of the latent variable leads to important gains in model fit and substantially different willingness-to-pay patterns.