Conservation Auctions and Compliance: Theory and Evidence from Laboratory Experiments

Many agri-environmental conservation programs are faced with the problem of imperfect monitoring. This provides farmers with an incentive for noncompliance, because they can receive subsidies without implementing the conservation scheme. In this paper, bidding behavior and auction performance are compared for discriminatory-price and uniform-price auctions in an imperfect monitoring environment. Our theoretical analysis suggests that auction performances are equalized between the discriminatory-price and uniform-price auctions. However, laboratory experiments reveal that, although the discriminatory-price auction has an advantage in terms of reducing policy costs, it is more likely to cause adverse selection. As a result, the uniform-price auction tends to have higher efficiency and cost-effectiveness when compliance behavior is taken into account.     

The case of Japan: Price bargaining and controls on oil products

This paper shows how the Japanese variant of indicative planning has dealt with the oil crisis. Goals for leading export industries and for income distribution have been promoted through “administered competition” (a key policy in the strong economic growth of the 1960s) and pricing policies (including selective controls). The “price-bargaining” mechanism (aided by sociopolitical forces) has proved effective in oil products, even under floating exchange rates. One noteworthy policy alteration is the encouragement of sales in Japan by large foreign oil companies but under constraints that tie their interests more closely to those of Japan.     

Limited information Bayesian analysis of a simultaneous equation with an autocorrelated error term and its application to the U.S. gasoline market

Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms within the limited information Bayesian framework, we estimate the parameters of the structural equation of interest and test weak exogeneity in a simultaneous equation model with white noise as well as autocorrelated error terms. A numerical example and an estimation of the supply and demand equations of the U.S. gasoline market show that if we ignore autocorrelation we obtain unreasonable posterior distributions of the parameters of interest. Also we find that the hypothesis of the asymmetric effect of the changes in oil price on the changes in gasoline price is rejected. Oil inventory has a significant negative effect on the gasoline price.     

The Effectiveness of Social Media for Business Activities in Japanese Firms

A large number of firms use social media for various business activities. This paper clarifies how social media has become effective to sales in Japanese firms. To this purpose, the following are addressed: (i) whether social media is useful for company activities, (ii) what kinds of business activities are affected using social media, and (iii) how social media improves the final outcomes of sales for firms. This study uses data of business activities and social media conducted in 2014. Probit analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) are employed. Probit analysis clarifies the relationships between the effects of social media and its use in sales. The SEM model clarifies the relationships among the effects of social media use in business. In the SEM, a model is examined by taking sales caused by use of social media as an explained variable, while the explanatory variables are the first and intermediate effects of social media. The results indicate that social media is effective for business activities such as promoting sales. This study may help to promote social media in Japanese firms.     

Contents of Volume 18

Volume Contents

Contents of Volume 18     

Bayesian Estimation of ARMA-GARCH Model of Weekly Foreign Exchange Rates

Three Bayesian methods (Markov chain Monte Carlo, Laplace approximation and quadrature formula) are developed to estimate the parameters of the ARMA-GARCH model. The ARMA-GARCH model is applied to weekly foreign exchange rate data of five major currencies, and their stochastic volatilities are judged by the posterior probabilities of stationarity and other conditions. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

PRINTEPS: An Integrated Intelligent Application Development Platform based on Stream Reasoning and ROS

Although AI and service robot applications have become very popular in many domains recently, many of them are specific applications and it is still difficult to develop integrated intelligent applications such as a robot teahouse and teaching assistant robots. To develop such integrated intelligent applications, we need integrated intelligent application platforms that have AI integration and agile process facilities. From the above background, we are currently developing PRactical INTElligent aPplicationS (PRINTEPS), which is a platform for developing integrated intelligent applications by combining only five types of modules, namely knowledge-based reasoning, spoken dialogue, image sensing, motion management, and machine learning. This paper proposes a workflow editor in PRINETPS based on a service-oriented architecture and a Robot Operating System that enables real-time parallel processing for multiple robots and sensors by integrating the five types of modules. The editor also supports not only developers but also domain experts in updating workflows frequently. This paper also proposes a novel method to integrate signals acquired through image sensing with knowledge (ontologies and business rules) using C-SPARQL and Semantic Web Rule Language. To evaluate PRINTEPS, we developed a robot teahouse application including customer reception and guidance to table services using a humanoid robot with PRINTEPS. Through this case study, we demonstrated that the behaviors of the robot can be modified by changing the workflow, the ontology, and the rules.     

Korean Currency Crisis and Regime Change:A Multivariate GARCH Model with Bayesian Approach

Regarding the question of when the Korean currency crisis actually started,several financial time series areexamined in a multivariate time series framework with the GeneralizedAutoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) process.The likelihood ratio (LR) test is used to find a structural break with aselection of breakpoints.The posterior probability function of a breakpoint is also derived.Individual time series data show the existence of several breaks since July1997.A statistically significant structural break using the multivariate GARCHmodelwas found prior to 8 November 1997, the date when the domestic currencystarted to massively devalue.