Econometric analysis of price index for home video cassette recorders in the U.S., 1978-1987

This paper conducts an empirical analysis on the U.S. VCR market using a hedonic approach. The paper finds that quality-adjusted price indices decline at 11-12% per year, with a large annual drop of about 18% from 1982-85. Estimation and data analysis reveal interesting aspects of the evolution of quality and price in the VCR market. As a result of the exclusion of the VCR category until 1986, the paper estimates a bias of 2.4% per year in the CPI electronics subindex.     

Did US safeguards resuscitate Harley-Davidson in the 1980s?

This paper examines US safeguards applied to the motorcycle market in the 1980s. After receiving temporary protection by means of a maximum tariff of over 45%, Harley-Davidson sales recovered dramatically. Simulations, based on structural demand and supply estimates, indicate that while safeguard tariffs did benefit Harley-Davidson, they only account for a fraction of its increased sales. This is primarily because consumers perceived that Harley-Davidson and Japanese large motorcycles were poorly matched substitutes for each other. Our results provide little evidence that safeguard provisions triggered restructuring in Harley-Davidson.     

Role of TFP in China's Growth*

This paper uses the dual approach to growth accounting to examine the role of total factor productivity (TFP) in recent Chinese growth. Most previous growth accounting studies on China have followed the primal approach, which depends heavily on the national income accounts. Unfortunately, despite efforts to rectify them, Chinese national income accounts data continue to have problems that affect primal approach growth accounting results. The dual approach, in contrast, allows independent price information to play a role. Recent research has focused on the following two questions: (i) How significant has TFP's role been in post‐reform Chinese growth? (ii) Has TFP growth rate slowed down in more recent years? This paper finds that: (i) the TFP growth rate for mainland China computed using the dual approach also proves high; and (ii) there has been some slowdown in TFP growth rate in recent years.     

Effects of Transparency in Procurement Practices on Government Expenditure: A Case Study of Municipal Public Works

This paper examines the effect of improved transparency in the bidder qualification process, using the experience gained from a case study of municipal public works auctions. A difference-in-differences analysis reveals that improved transparency reduces procurement cost by up to 8%. This finding is robust with regard to the concerns of both endogeneity and sample selectivity. The bidding-function estimates, combined with features of Japanese procurement system, imply that the introduction of transparent practices is insufficient to bring about efficiency in public procurement.      

The Regime Switching Portfolios

In this paper we develop a portfolio selection theory under regime switching means and volatilities. We use log mean-variance as the portfolio selection criteria and, as a result, the theory is made substantially easier to implement than other existing theories. Moreover, the estimated regimes are easy to interpret as one of the regimes corresponds to the business cycle turning points. Finally, we conduct an asset allocation simulation and obtain reasonable results by introducing an idea of switching volatility targets.     

Schumpeterian patterns of innovation and the sources of breakthrough inventions: evidence from a data-set of R&D awards

This paper examines the relationship between Schumpeterian patterns of innovation and the generation of breakthrough inventions. Our data source for breakthrough inventions is the “R&D 100 awards” competition organized each year by the magazine Research & Development. Since 1963, this magazine has been awarding this prize to 100 most technologically significant new products available for sale or licensing in the year preceding the judgment. We use USPTO patent data to measure the relevant dimensions of the technological regime prevailing in each sector and, on this basis, we provide a characterization of each sector in terms of the Schumpeter Mark I/Schumpeter Mark II archetypes. Our main finding is that breakthrough inventions are more likely to emerge in ‘turbulent’ Schumpeter Mark I type of contexts.     

市场化进程中社会资本还能够充当保险机制吗?——中国农村家庭灾后消费的经验研究

本文研究了在中国农村的市场化过程中,社会资本为遭受自然灾害的家庭的消费平滑提供保险的作用。我们基于2002年中国家庭收入调查(CHIPS)的农村数据进行经验研究,结果显示,互助、公民参与及信任这三种社会资本并没能帮助中国农村家庭抵御自然灾害对于消费的冲击。我们的发现并不依赖于同村家庭遭受自然灾害的同质性程度。我们进一步找到证据表明:社会资本在帮助农户分担风险和平滑消费上的作用随着市场化的深入而减弱。