Jump Spillover in International Equity Markets

In this article we study jump spillover effects between a numberof country equity indexes. In order to identify the latent historicaljumps of each index, we use a Bayesian approach to estimatea jump-diffusion model on each index. We look at the simultaneousjump intensities of pairs of countries and the probabilitiesthat jumps in large countries cause jumps or unusually largereturns in other countries. In all cases, we find significantevidence of jump spillover. In addition, we find that jump spilloverseems to be particularly large between countries that belongto the same regions and have similar industry structures, whereas,interestingly, the sample correlations between the countrieshave difficulties in capturing the jump spillover effects.     

Sustainability,Optimality, and Development Policy

Considering sustainability a matter of intergenerational welfare equity, this paper examines whether an optimal development path can also be sustainable. It argues that the general “zero‐net‐aggregate‐investment” condition for an optimal development path to be sustainable in the sense of the maximin criterion of intergenerational justice is too demanding to be practical, especially in the context of developing countries. It further argues that while the maximin criterion of sustainability may be appealing to the rich advanced industrial countries, for the poor developing countries it implies equalization of poverty across generations, and as such is too costly a moral obligation to be acceptable. The paper suggests that a compromise development policy that follows the optimal growth approach but adopts certain measures to mitigate both the intergenerational and intragenerational welfare inequalities may be more appropriate for these countries. Some of the principal elements of such a policy are highlighted.     

Impact of Perceived Security on Trust,Perceived Risk,and Acceptance of Online Banking in Iran

This study examines the relationship between perceived security and acceptance of online banking with the mediating effect of perceived risk and trust in Internet banking in Iranian customers. Researchers used structural equations model (SEM) to examine their hypotheses and conceptual model. Statistical data were gathered via a questionnaire from 395 randomly selected customers of Bank Saderat Iran in Semnan. Cronbach’s alpha and internal compatibility were used to check the reliability of the questionnaire. The justifiability of the research variables was checked and confirmed using the first- and second-order confirmatory factor analysis. According to the SEM results, the variables of perceived security and trust in Internet banking had a significantly positive impact on the acceptance of online banking. Although perceived risk had no significant impact on the acceptance of online banking, the results showed that perceived risk had a significantly negative impact on trust in Internet banking.     

Artificial intelligence and the future of work: Human-AI symbiosis in organizational decision making

Artificial intelligence (AI) has penetrated many organizational processes, resulting in a growing fear that smart machines will soon replace many humans in decision making. To provide a more proactive and pragmatic perspective, this article highlights the complementarity of humans and AI and examines how each can bring their own strength in organizational decision-making processes typically characterized by uncertainty, complexity, and equivocality. With a greater computational information processing capacity and an analytical approach, AI can extend humans’ cognition when addressing complexity, whereas humans can still offer a more holistic, intuitive approach in dealing with uncertainty and equivocality in organizational decision making. This premise mirrors the idea of intelligence augmentation, which states that AI systems should be designed with the intention of augmenting, not replacing, human contributions.     

What is a farecard worth?

In this paper wer use the duality approach to demand theory to evaluate the value to a consumer of a farecard which allows travel at zero marginal pecuniary cost. The analysis is extended to networks with two modes of travel (bus and underground).Illustrative figures are calculated for farecards on the London Transport network.     

Persistence,seasonality and trend in the UK egg production

This paper discusses the time-series properties of UK egg production in order to provide an empirical analysis of the possible long-run impact of the shock on the industry following the recent incidence of salmonella poisoning. Our analysis shows that although the short-run properties of the UK egg production are consistent with the presence of persistent shocks, a shock duration is unlikely to have large long run efefcts. This result is remarkably robust to the choice of the persistence measure obtained.     

Limited-dependent rational expectations models with future expectations

This paper examines limited-dependent rational expectations (LD-RE) models containing future expectations of the dependent variable. Limited dependence is of a two-limit tobit variety which may, for example, arise as a result of a policy of imposing limits on the movement of the dependent variable by means of marginal as well as intramarginal interventions. We show that when the forcing variables are serially independent the model has an analytical solution which can be computed by backward recursion. With serially correlated forcing variables, we discuss an approximate solution method, as well as a numerically exact method that, in principle, can be implemented by stochastic simulation, although in practice it is limited by available computational capacity. The paper discusses some properties of the approximate solutions and reports the results of a limited number of Monte Carlo experiments in order to illustrate the computational feasibility of using the exact solution when the fundamentals are serially independent and the approximate solution when they are serially correlated.     

Some experimental evidence regarding collusion

The authors are indebted to James M. Walker for helpful comments on this and a related study. We have also benefited from conversations with Jay Stewart, Margaret Ray, and Marjorie Baldwin. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from Indiana University, South Bend, and Indiana University, Bloomington (Office of Research and Graduate Development). We also wish to express our gratitude to the subjects from Indiana University, Bloomington, and the University of Notre Dame who willingly participated in the experiments and interviews.     

Pro-tourism and anti-tourism community groups at a world heritage site in Turkey

This empirical study deepens our understating of support for sustainable tourism development (SSTD) from the perspectives of various community groups in Pamukkale, a world natural and cultural heritage inscribed on the UNESCO list. A quota sampling technique was used to survey the views of three communities: business, farmers, and the government. Occurrences of contrarian cases were checking using cross-tabulation analyses. Complexity theory and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), as an innovative approach, were applied to develop and test a configurational model for predicting both high and low SSTD scores for three community groups. The fsQCA results revealed that causal recipes for achieving pro-tourism behaviour are not simply mirror opposites of the conditions leading to anti-tourism behaviour. The complex configurational models indicating high/low SSTD were unique to each community group, indicating that a specified strategy must be developed for community-based tourism management. The evidence-of-fit validity of the measurement model and the predictive validity of the configurational model were provided. Support for the fsQCA results in the key tenets of complexity theory confirms that this theory explained the heterogeneity and complex interactions of SSTD antecedents well. The study outcomes provide a guideline for managing conditions to both increase SSTD and hinder SSTD negation for various community groups. The limitations and implications for further research are discussed.     

The inflationary effects of stochastic resource revenues in resource-rich economies with less well-developed financial markets

This article develops a simple Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to illustrate how economies that face restrictions in their ability to alter both government spending and taxation in the short run and cannot borrow easily (perhaps because of incomplete internal capital markets) can find external fluctuations in resource revenues producing unexpected variations in their internal money supply and ultimately in their inflation rate. The main channels for these effects run through the government budget and through the country's balance of payments position. The model is calibrated to illustrate the case of Iran.