围绕“内卷化”的讨论——一次新的范式转型

对于同样的一种行为——妇女参加手工业劳动,在《华北的小农经济与社会变迁》一书中不被判断为内卷化的表现,而在《长江三角洲小农家庭与乡村发展》一书中则被判断为主要的内卷化表现之一,这不能不说是“内卷化”概念的混乱。     

我国证券市场经济混沌探测研究--一种基于小波变换的噪声处理

经济时间序列的变化有长期趋势变动、周期变动以及日常细微波动(噪声),噪声的存在有时会影响系统的分辨率、稳定性,甚至会淹没正常信号。利用小波变换对上证指数和深成指的日收盘价序列进行去噪处理,用去噪后的日收盘价序列计算出日收益率序列,仍能较好地保留序列自身固有的特性,这种方法能满足探测我国证券市场的混沌性所需要的大样本、低噪声的要求。     

由宁夏中部地区的资源开发看生态建设的整体性

宁夏中部地区是宁夏乃至全国的土地资源及能源的重点开发区域。但是，由于其生态环境具有强烈的过渡性、复杂性和脆弱性，以往的资源开发活动已经造成了森林退缩、草场退化、土地沙化、水土流失与土壤盐渍化等一系列生态环境问题。文章指出上述生态问题的产生也是人们在资源开发过程中非整体性行为的作用结果，为此，生态建设要作为一项全社会参与的“系统工程”，从生态经济建设、生态文化建设、生态体制建设与生态工程建设等几个侧面共同入手，只有这样，才能保有以往的生态建设成果，实现本区域生态系统的良性循环。     

跨国合同诈骗犯罪的发展趋势与原因分析

跨国合同诈骗是当前各类跨国经济犯罪活动中比重最大,危害最为严重的犯罪类型之一,并随着世界经济一体化进程的深化呈现出了新的发展趋势.针对当前跨国合同诈骗犯罪的现状,研究分析其发展趋势和形成原因对跨国合同诈骗犯罪的法律规制和防控有重要意义.     

Nonlinear IV unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency

We propose a unit root test for panels with cross-sectional dependency. We allow general dependency structure among the innovations that generate data for each of the cross-sectional units. Each unit may have different sample size, and therefore unbalanced panels are also permitted in our framework. Yet, the test is asymptotically normal, and does not require any tabulation of the critical values. Our test is based on nonlinear IV estimation of the usual augmented Dickey–Fuller type regression for each cross-sectional unit, using as instruments nonlinear transformations of the lagged levels. The actual test statistic is simply defined as a standardized sum of individual IV t-ratios. We show in the paper that such a standardized sum of individual IV t-ratios has limit normal distribution as long as the panels have large individual time series observations and are asymptotically balanced in a very weak sense. We may have the number of cross-sectional units arbitrarily small or large. In particular, the usual sequential asymptotics, upon which most of the available asymptotic theories for panel unit root models heavily rely, are not required. Finite sample performance of our test is examined via a set of simulations, and compared with those of other commonly used panel unit root tests. Our test generally performs better than the existing tests in terms of both finite sample sizes and powers. We apply our nonlinear IV method to test for the purchasing power parity hypothesis in panels.     

Managing academic innovation in Taiwan: Towards a ‘scientific-economic’ framework

Since the passage of the Science and Technology Basic Law in 1999, Taiwanese universities have taken a more “scientific-economic” approach to protect and commercialize their research. This research mainly examines innovation activities such as patenting, licensing, and incubated startups in the context of Taiwanese higher education institutions (HEIs). The “scientific-economic” framework used to analyze the strategic aspects influencing these academic innovations includes (1) intellectual property managerial capabilities, (2) the strength of external industrial partnerships, (3) the university entrepreneurial orientation, and (4) government research policy. Four hypotheses were developed. Data were collected via a questionnaire with all 122 HEIs in Taiwan surveyed.The research reveals that the aspects of intellectual property managerial capability, HEI-industry partnerships, and academic entrepreneurial orientation are useful to distinguish the university's innovation performance on patent grants, licensing incomes, and firm incubation. Also, government support on research plays a moderating role in academic innovation. Managerial and policy implications for managing innovation effectively in universities were drawn.     

知识经济时代与社会转型

知识经济时代的出现是生产力发展的结果，生产力的发展决定了社会形态的更替和人类社会的转型。社会转型是知识经济时代的历史必然。     

我国证券市场监管基础建设研究

我国证券监管不力的根本原因在于证券监管基础建设方面存在缺陷。我们可以借鉴发达国家经验，从我国证券市场法律法规体系、证券监管体制、市场规律、国际间证券监管的合作等方面着手，加强和完善我国证券监管的基础建设。     

国有企业法人治理结构初探

文章认为,国有企业改革是中国经济体制改革的重点、热点和难点,其中关于国有企业法人治理结构问题无论在理论还是在实践上更引人关注,国有企业法人治理结构是国有企业现代化企业制度得以建立的核心,是国有企业组织机构现代化、法治化的关键,而目前我国国有企业法人治理结构存在诸多缺陷,如股权过度集中、董事会运作失范、监事会监督机制弱化、对企业经营者激励不足、约束不力等等,建立科学合理的法人治理结构已经迫在眉睫了。     

This is what the leading indicators lead

We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyse the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes, probit, non‐parametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and non‐parametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the NBER business cycle schedule and GDP growth. This confirms the usefulness of CLI, even in a real‐time analysis. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.