深圳居民消费结构变化分析

一、深圳居民消费结构的变化状况1.深圳居民收入提高,消费增加居民消费结构的变化主要取决于居民的收入状况。居民的收入提高了,消费欲望才会增强。据深圳市统计局城调队抽样调查显示,深圳居民近年的可支配收入稳步上升,1999～2003年深圳居民的可支配收入分别为20240.40、21625     

我国建立研发枢纽的条件及发展战略

随着经济全球化的迅猛发展和国际竞争的日趋激烈,跨国的R&D活动日益朝着国际化、全球化的方向发展。改革开放以来,我国社会稳定、经济飞速发展,成为跨国公司投资的好地方。选取了京沪粤三地作为研究我国建立研发枢纽地的目的地,通过对京沪粤三地研发投入产出的有效性、R&D效率、研发枢纽条件的比较分析,研究了三地建立研发枢纽的条件,并提出了进一步促进建立研发枢纽的发展战略。     

An empirical evaluation of China’s monetary policies

This paper investigates the responsiveness of the Chinese government’s monetary policies in terms of the money supply and interest rates to economic conditions and the effectiveness of these policies in achieving the goals of stimulating economic growth and controlling inflation. We analyze the responsiveness and effectiveness by estimating the Taylor rule, the McCallum rule, and a vector autoregressive model using quarterly data in the period of 1992-2009. The results show that, overall, the monetary policy variables respond to economic growth and the inflation rate, but the magnitudes of the responses are much weaker than those observed in market economies. Money supply responded actively to both the inflation rate and the real output and had certain effects on the future inflation rates and real output. The official interest rates, on the other hand, responded passively to the inflation rate and did not respond to the real output. They do not have any effect on future inflation rates and real output either.     

科技政策对企业创新的作用机制研究——以广东省为例的实证分析

科技创新是立国之本、强国之路。政府在不同阶段制定相应的科技政策,以求持续激励企业参与创新活动、提高企业核心竞争力、促进产业结构转型升级。基于广东省2005-2017年上市公司数据,采用计数模型实证分析了地级市政府科技政策对企业创新的影响及作用机制。研究表明：科技政策力度越大,越能提高企业的创新水平;科技政策的激励作用主要通过研发强度这一中介变量产生;科技政策不仅能促进企业的策略性创新行为,同时也会导致企业的实质性创新行为;直接激励类型的政策对企业创新并无显著影响,而营造创新氛围的间接激励类型政策则对企业创新有着显著的正向影响;政策激励对非国有企业、非高科技企业的正向作用更加明显。     

西方就业理论演进的历史轨迹及启示

西方就业理论从18世纪人口与资源均衡发展的思想萌芽开始,到20世纪90年代至今,有古典经济学派人口均衡发展思想、新古典经济学派就业理论、凯恩斯的就业理论、发展经济学的就业理论、人力资本与就业理论、新古典综合派就业理论、新凯恩斯主义就业理论、新自由主义的反古典经济学派就业理论等诸多经济学流派和就业理论体系。各学派深入探讨产生失业的原因,并形成各自颇具特色的就业理论。回顾和梳理西方就业理论的历史演变轨迹,对解决当前中国的就业问题,具有前瞻指导意义和参考价值。     

美国次级债危机产生的原因、影响及启示

美国次级债危机发端于2006年下半年,在2007年2月引起世人普遍关注,到2007年8月升级成席卷全球金融市场的风暴。为了更加细致深入地考察和有效地防止此危机,有必要从纷繁复杂的金融事件中去探求危机的形成。本文分析了美国次级债危机产生的原因、影响以及对我国政府及对金融机构的启示。     

The Chinese interbank repo market: An analysis of term premiums

Because of the lack of short‐term government bonds, the interbank repo market in China has been providing the best information about market‐driven short‐term interest rates since its inception. This article examines the behavior of the repo rates of various terms and their term premiums. The work in this article supplements the study by F. Longstaff (2000), which reports supportive evidence for the pure expectations hypothesis over the short range of the term structure with the use of repo data from the United States. It is found that the pure expectations hypothesis is statistically rejected, although the term premiums are economically small. It is shown that the short‐term repo rate, repo rate volatility, repo market liquidity, and repo rate spreads are all important in determining the term premiums. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:153–167, 2006     

Market timing: Recent development and a new test

Henriksson-Merton's market timing test suffers nontrivial size distortion when the event forecast is autocorrelated. A new test is suggested to detect the dependence of two autocorrelated binary time series. It complements the existing tests due to better test power.     

Predicting bankruptcy using the discrete-time semiparametric hazard model

The usual bankruptcy prediction models are based on single-period data from firms. These models ignore the fact that the characteristics of firms change through time, and thus they may suffer from a loss of predictive power. In recent years, a discrete-time parametric hazard model has been proposed for bankruptcy prediction using panel data from firms. This model has been demonstrated by many examples to be more powerful than the traditional models. In this paper, we propose an extension of this approach allowing for a more flexible choice of hazard function. The new method does not require the assumption of a parametric model for the hazard function. In addition, it also provides a tool for checking the adequacy of the parametric model, if necessary. We use real panel datasets to illustrate the proposed method. The empirical results confirm that the new model compares favorably with the well-known discrete-time parametric hazard model.     

A logistic regression point of view toward loss given default distribution estimation

We propose a new procedure to estimate the loss given default (LGD) distribution. Owing to the complicated shape of the LGD distribution, using a smooth density function as a driver to estimate it may result in a decline in model fit. To overcome this problem, we first apply the logistic regression to estimate the LGD cumulative distribution function. Then, we convert the result into the LGD distribution estimate. To implement the newly proposed estimation procedure, we collect a sample of 5269 defaulted debts from Moody’s Default and Recovery Database. A performance study is performed using 2000 pairs of in-sample and out-of-sample data-sets with different sizes that are randomly selected from the entire sample. Our results show that the newly proposed procedure has better and more robust performance than its alternatives, in the sense of yielding more accurate in-sample and out-of-sample LGD distribution estimates. Thus, it is useful for studying the LGD distribution.