Investing in the S&P 500 index: Can anything beat the buy‐and‐hold strategy?

Determining whether investment strategies exist that provide higher (risk‐adjusted) returns than buying and holding the S&P 500 stock market index is not only highly relevant for finance theory, but also for the asset management industry. This study conducts a comprehensive test using realistic investment strategies based on monthly seasonalities, technical indicators, and fundamental factors (over 4,100 strategies in total). To assess statistical significance, we use Hansen's data‐snooping‐resistant SPA test. The results show that only investment strategies trying to exploit underreaction and overreaction effects with technical indicators dominate the buy‐and‐hold strategy in some simulation setups. These investment strategies are clearly superior to the strategies based on seasonalities and fundamental factors. Given that underreaction and overreaction effects are mainly justified with cognitive biases, our results support the economic relevance of behavioral finance insights.     

The new EU countries and euro adoption

In the new member states of the EU which have not yet adopted the euro, previous adoption strategies have come under scrutiny. The spillovers and contagion from the global financial crisis revealed a new threat to the countries’ real convergence goal, namely considerable vulnerability to the transmission of financial instability to the real economy. This paper demonstrates the existence of extreme risks for real convergence and argues in favour of a new adoption strategy which does not announce a target date for the currency changeover and which allows for more flexible and countercyclical monetary, fiscal and wage policies.     

Should we reallocate patent fees to the universities?

In knowledge economies, patent agencies are often viewed as a relevant instrument of an efficient innovation policy. This paper brings a new support to that idea. We claim that these agencies should play an increasing role in the regulation of the relation between private R&D labs and public fundamental research units especially concerning the question of the appropriation of free usable research results. Since these two institutions work with opposite institutional arrangements (see P.S. Dasgupta and P.A. David. 1987. Information disclosure and the economics of science and technology. In Arrow and the accent of modern economic theory, ed. G.R. Feiwel, 519–42. New York: State University of New York Press), we essentially argue that there is, on the one hand, an over-appropriation of these results while, on the other hand, there is also an under-provision of free usable results issued from more fundamental research. We show how a public patent office can restore efficiency.     

R & D and the company's requirements

Numerous models have been put forward in the literature for the selection and evaluation of projects, many of which are based on optimizing the return on investment by the company in R & D projects. This is a noble aim but in practice the financial data available are often of dubious accuracy and so many other factors are involved in actually adopting a portfolio of selected projects that project selection often becomes a theoretical exercise. It is suggested that the selection of projects is in essence the adoption of a strategy which is within the policy and long-term aims of the company and also within the policy and scientific development of the R & D part of the company. Such a strategy is usually sub-optimum for both the company and the R & D division, as it is a compromise between a desire for high pay-back investments by the company and the maintenance of a scientifically balanced R & D involving some long-term, unknown return, investments. A method is currently being experimented with by Unilever Research which illustrates where conflicts arise between the policy of the main company and that of research, and assists management in arriving at a strategy which most closely fulfils the needs of both policies. Both the concept of the method and its practical use are described in this paper.     

The Consequences of Issuing Convertible Bonds: Dilution and/or Financial Restructuring?

Historically, most convertible bond (CB) issues have been converted to equity sooner or later. The announcement of a CB issue will bring about a future dilution of the firm's capital, and is often followed by a drop in share price. However, a CB issue by itself creates future value for the shareholders if it enables the firm to make profitable investments. It can also issue a positive signal regarding the restructuring of the firm's financial liabilities and its attempts to optimise its financial structure. These positive effects, if they occur, will develop gradually after the issue, and cannot be identified by a simple short‐term event analysis of a CB issue announcement. In this paper, we test the significance of the dilution effect, coupled with a possible value creation effect, using data from the French stock market. We introduce a comparison between dilutive convertibles and non‐dilutive exchangeable bonds. By integrating different corrections and by selecting a window of analysis over a longer period after the announcement of the issue, we show that the negative cumulative average abnormal returns generally observed in previous studies become non‐significant. This absence of global incidence is indicative of large differences in individual behaviour by issuers of CBs, and leads us to take into account the strategic choices linked to the issue of a CB. Two goals, often described as ‘investment financing’ or ‘financial restructuring’, may exist when issuing, and may appear to explain the size of the abnormal returns.     

Labour commodification,differentiation, and marginalization of the peasantry in Sella Limba (Sierra Leone) from 1950 to the present

In Sierra Leone, migration to diamond fields and the development of cash crops have contributed to the increasing integration of the peasantry in the national and global economy. Based on the study of a small northern chiefdom, Sella Limba, we describe how the labour commodification have led to the perversion of “traditional” social relations based on anteriority, and to the break‐up of large domestic groups into smaller, more precarious ones. At the same time, manual agriculture has been marginalized by massive cheap rice imports and remained very low in capital intensity. In this context, we show how low labour productivity curtails opportunities for long‐term social and economic differentiation. Farmers combine “modern” and “traditional” social relations, developing hybrid accumulation strategies that are sometimes close to mere survival.