Recent evidence on the relationship between money growth and budget deficits

This paper examines the recent evidence on the extent to which the Federal Reserve accommodates Treasury financing activities by effectively monetizing newly issued debt. Various lag and lead formulations are used to determine the timing of FED actions. Results suggest that validation has been significant over the 1960–1980 period, and that, especially in recent periods, the FOMC has responded to capital market pressure which appears in advance of impending debt issues. Finally, we find in the limited number of observations available since October 1979 that there has been no substantive “break” in this accommodative policy despite the Fed's alleged emphasis on monetary aggregates.     

Growth patterns of the European venture capital industry

Although the European venture capital industry has become nearly as important as its American counterpart, little research has been done to describe its nature and importance. This study gives in the first place an overview of the importance of the venture capital industry in the major European countries. Thereafter, we look for funding and investment patterns in the different European countries. We hypothesize that there is a difference between countries in which the venture capital industry is just emerging, and those where the venture capital industry is since long established.The data are mainly, but not solely, taken from the yearly statistics of the European Venture Capital Association (EVCA) and cover the period 1984–1989. The characteristics we look at are: (1) the sources of the funds flowing into the industry, broken down with respect to investor type and geographical location of the investor; and (2) the investments, broken down with respect to investment stage (using the EVCA definitions of the different stages), geographical location, degree of syndication, and industrial sector of the investee companies. In Europe as a whole, the most important group of investors are the banks (28%), the pension funds (17%), and the insurance companies (12%). Banks dominate the Swiss industry (48%); corporate investors dominate the German, Swedish, and Portuguese industries, whereas these are nearly completely absent in Denmark (2%), Ireland (4%), and the United Kingdom (5%). Eighty percent of all venture capital funds are raised domestically, 7% in another European country, and the remaining 13% in a non-European country.Almost half of the European investments (44%) are made in the expansion stage; management buy-outs (MBOs) account for another 36%. Only 14% is invested in seed or start-up companies, much less than the 30% in the U.S. Half of the venture capital investments in the United Kingdom are buy-outs. The highest start-up investment activity takes place in Austria and Spain. On average, more than half (54%) of the invested amount in Europe is syndicated, but only 6% internationally, while 10% is invested internationally.We also search for similarities and dissimilarities in the characteristics of the sources of funds and of the investments. The hypothesis is that a growth pattern can be distinguished, determining the maturity of the venture capital industry in a particular country. The characteristics that we think would discriminate most among the different industry stages are the importance of government agencies, pension funds, and insurance companies (sources of funds); of start-up, later stages, or MBO investments; and the percentage of international and syndicated investments. Cluster analyses show that there is a growth pattern, but it is less clear than expected. Characteristics of mature industries are a bigger size, relative to the gross national product of the country, the presence of pension funds and insurance companies as investors in the industry, the syndication of the deals, and the absence of the government as an investor, in the 1980s, investments in management buy-outs are mainly done by the mature industries. No pattern can be distinguished for the investments in early or later stages.The major implication from this study is the fact that the European venture capital industry cannot be approached as a single, undifferentiated industry. Each country has its own structures, institutions, and policies, which make the venture capital industries in the different countries have unique characteristics. Moreover, the European venture capital industry has different characteristics than the American industry; this has to be taken into account when comparing both industries.     

The simulation of planning decisions

An approach to the simulation of planning decisions is presented in which techniques based on control systems analysis are used. Planning decisions are defined to be those taken by officially instituted bodies subsequent to the adoption of an official plan and in order to implement it. These decisions are in response to applications for action from the public. These decisions are assumed to be adequately represented by the mean and standard deviations of the distribution of time delays involved. These two parameters are in turn posited to be influenced by feedback, feedforward and comparison with a standard plan effects. These influences are subsumed in a Monitoring functional block, which is modelled by a set of multiple linear regression equations. The decision-making or Regulation functional block is represented by Laplace functions which makes it convenient for computer simulation. Input functions are derived from the hypothesis to be tested or theoretical considerations. The advantages of the method appear to lie in its concise form and ease of manipulation even though the system simulated is an adaptive control system. Computer simulation models are notorious for their unwieldy size (number of equations) which in turn makes intervention and manipulation of parameters impractical. The proposed model attempts to alleviate this problem by simplifying the procedure involved.     

Regional debt in monetary unions: Is it inflationary?

This paper studies the inflationary implications of interest bearing regional debt in a monetary union. Is this debt simply backed by future taxation with no inflationary consequences? Or will the circulation of region debt induce monetization by a central bank?We argue here that both outcomes can arise in equilibrium. In the model economy, there are multiple equilibria which reflect the perceptions of agents regarding the manner in which the debt obligations will be met. In one equilibrium, termed Ricardian, the future obligations are met with taxation by a regional government while in the other, termed Monetization, the central bank is induced to print money to finance the region's obligations. The multiplicity of equilibria reflects a commitment problem of the central bank. A key indicator of the selected equilibrium is the distribution of regional debt holdings. We show that regional governments, anticipating central bank financing of their debt obligations, have an incentive to create excessively large deficits. We use the model to assess the impact of some policy measures within a monetary union as well as dollarization.     

Zur Kritik der Kapitalmarktunion

This article examines the European Commission’s proposal to establish a Capital Markets Union through facilitated marketbased financing, prominently cross border securitisation. However, facilitated securitisation might raise systemic risks through a deteriorated term transformation, imperfect risk transfer and excessive leverage. It might create a new liquidity glut completely separated from the needs of the real economy. In addition, this concept is contradictory to previous efforts to properly supervise, regulate and control the European financial markets. The essay favours a regulation and control approach combined with extensive EU reforms of the financial sector.     

Labour commodification,differentiation, and marginalization of the peasantry in Sella Limba (Sierra Leone) from 1950 to the present

In Sierra Leone, migration to diamond fields and the development of cash crops have contributed to the increasing integration of the peasantry in the national and global economy. Based on the study of a small northern chiefdom, Sella Limba, we describe how the labour commodification have led to the perversion of “traditional” social relations based on anteriority, and to the break‐up of large domestic groups into smaller, more precarious ones. At the same time, manual agriculture has been marginalized by massive cheap rice imports and remained very low in capital intensity. In this context, we show how low labour productivity curtails opportunities for long‐term social and economic differentiation. Farmers combine “modern” and “traditional” social relations, developing hybrid accumulation strategies that are sometimes close to mere survival.     

Mean–field moral hazard for optimal energy demand response management

We study the problem of demand response contracts in electricity markets by quantifying the impact of considering a continuum of consumers with mean–field interaction, whose consumption is impacted by a common noise. We formulate the problem as a Principal–Agent problem with moral hazard in which the Principal—she—is an electricity producer who observes continuously the consumption of a continuum of risk‐averse consumers, and designs contracts in order to reduce her production costs. More precisely, the producer incentivizes each consumer to reduce the average and the volatility of his consumption in different usages, without observing the efforts he makes. We prove that the producer can benefit from considering the continuum of consumers by indexing contracts on the consumption of one Agent and aggregate consumption statistics from the distribution of the entire population of consumers. In the case of linear energy valuation, we provide closed‐form expression for this new type of optimal contracts that maximizes the utility of the producer. In most cases, we show that this new type of contracts allows the Principal to choose the risks she wants to bear, and to reduce the problem at hand to an uncorrelated one.     

Fiscal Federalism in a Monetary Union: The No-Cooperation Pitfall

Open Economies Review - The relative merits in a monetary union of a fiscal federalism scheme and intergovernmental fiscal cooperation without a federal authority are assessed using a standard...