Prediction of stock market turning points

This study investigates possible systematic relationships between the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and its price/earnings (P/E) ratio, its dividend yield (D/P) ratio, and the Federal Funds Rate. Weekly data for this study were obtained fromTechnical Trends andBarrons covering a time period from February 23, 1985 to September 23, 1994. It was found that the P/E ratio led the market by about eight months with a correlation coefficient of 0.35, the D/P ratio led the market by 21 months with a correlation coefficient of 0.55, and that the Funds Rate led the market by five months with a correlation coefficient of –0.33.Any errors found in this paper are the sole responsibility of the author. The author would like to express sincere appreciation to John R. McGinley, Jr., Editor ofTechnical Trends, for providing the data series used in this study. Also, the author would like to thankBarrons for supplying a number of additional data items. Special appreciation goes to Melissa Luo who so diligently and carefully performed all the statistical calculations.     

Employment and Wage Bargaining in an Open Monetary Union

This paper studies alternative patterns of wage bargaining in an open two-country monetary union. Wages are fixed by trade unions for two periods, either at the national or at the monetary union level. It is shown that the best solution with regard to unemployment depends on the nature of externalities and dynamic strategic interactions between the monetary union's countries; namely on the degree of openness of the monetary union, and the differentiation index between national goods.     

When do cooperation and commitment matter in a monetary union?

This paper offers a framework to study strategic interactions between private players, national fiscal authorities and a common central bank in monetary unions. We establish general conditions, in terms of restrictions on spillover effects of actions by private and public players, under which games that differ in the degree of cooperation and commitment can admit the same equilibrium outcome. We use these conditions to characterize benchmark results on the irrelevance of cooperation and commitment established in recent literature. Moreover, we show for a general setting, in which the benchmark results do not apply, that gains from fiscal cooperation depend on the number of countries and increase as this number gets larger.     

Do People Accurately Anticipate Sanctions?

We provide lab data from four different games that allow us to study whether people have accurate expectations regarding monetary sanctions (punishment/reward) and nonmonetary sanctions (disapproval/approval). Although the strength of the sanction is always predicted with some error (particularly in the case of monetary sanctions), we observe that (i) most subjects anticipate correctly the sign of the average sanction, (ii) expectations covary with sanctions, (iii) the average expectation is very often not significantly different than the average actual sanction, and (iv) the errors exhibit no systematic bias, except in those situations where rewards are frequent. In this line, we find some evidence that punishment is better anticipated than rewards.     

Erin Anderson and the Path Breaking Work of TCE in New Areas of Business Research: Transaction Costs in Action

This review article synthesizes Erin Anderson's academic contribution, with an emphasis on two path breaking aspects of her work, namely the operationalization of TCA in different contexts and the refinement of the theory. We review the measures that she developed to reflect key TCE constructs, and identify five contexts in which Erin Anderson's application of TCE concepts broke new paths. These are employee or representative salesforces, choice of foreign entry mode, new market entry and innovation, countertrade, and ethics. We highlight a number of ways in which her research integrates other theories to transaction cost economics, thereby deepening our understanding of key issues involving make or buy decisions. Finally, we draw attention to directions for future research identified through her work.     

Is the division of labour limited by the extent of the market? Evidence from French cities

This paper provides supportive evidence to the notion that the division of labour is limited by the extent of the (local) market. We first propose a theoretical model. Its main prediction is that scarce specialists occupations are over-represented in large cities. Using census data for French cities, we find strong empirical support for this prediction.     

Where is the value added of rebalancing? A systematic comparison of alternative rebalancing strategies

This study compares the performance of different rebalancing strategies under realistic market conditions by reporting statistical significance levels. Our analysis is based on historical data from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany and comprises three different classes of rebalancing (periodic, threshold, and range rebalancing). Despite cross-country differences, our history-based simulation results show that all rebalancing strategies outperform a buy-and-hold strategy in terms of Sharpe ratios, Sortino ratios, and Omega measures. The differences in risk-adjusted performance are not only statistically significant, but also economically relevant. However, the choice of a particular rebalancing strategy is of only minor economic importance.