An alternative procedure for taking a random sample

Summary The procedure proposed consists in going through the population to be sampled item by item deciding each time with probability p whether the item at hand shall be incorporated in the sample. The "distances" between successive items in the sample will then form a random sample from a geometric distribution. A series of these random distances can easily be produced on a computer and can be conveniently used for taking the sample required. In some cases this method may have its advantages over the conventional use of a table of random numbers.     

Surrogate modelling of a detailed farm-level model using deep learning

Technological change co-determines agri-environmental performance and farm structural transformation. Meaningful impact assessment of related policies can be derived from farm-level models that are rich in technology details and environmental indicators, integrated with agent-based models capturing dynamic farm interaction. However, such integration faces considerable challenges affecting model development, debugging and computational demands in application. Surrogate modelling using deep learning techniques can facilitate such integration for simulations with broad regional coverage. We develop surrogates of the farm model FarmDyn using different architectures of neural networks. Our specifically designed evaluation metrics allow practitioners to assess trade-offs among model fit, inference time and data requirements. All tested neural networks achieve a high fit but differ substantially in inference time. The Multilayer Perceptron shows almost top performance in all criteria but saves strongly on inference time compared to a Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory.     

Does access to improved grain storage technology increase farmers' welfare? Experimental evidence from maize farming in Ethiopia

Seasonal price variability for cereals is two to three times higher in Africa than on the international reference market. Seasonality is even more pronounced when access to appropriate storage and opportunities for price arbitrage are limited. As smallholder farmers typically sell their production after harvest, when prices are low, this leads to lower incomes as well as higher food insecurity during the lean season, when prices are high. One solution to reduce seasonal stress is the use of improved storage technologies. Using data from a randomised controlled trial, in a major maize-growing region of Western Ethiopia, we study the impact of hermetic bags, a technology that protects stored grain against insect pests, so that the grain can be stored longer. Despite considerable price seasonality—maize prices in the lean season are 36% higher than after harvesting—we find no evidence that hermetic bags improve welfare, except that access to these bags allowed for a marginally longer storage period of maize intended for sale by 2 weeks. But this did not translate into measurable welfare gains as we found no changes in any of our welfare outcome indicators. This ‘near-null’ effect is due to the fact that maize storage losses in our study region are relatively lower than previous studies suggested—around 10% of the quantity stored—likely because of the widespread use of an alternative to protect maize during storage, for example a cheap but highly toxic fumigant. These findings are important for policies that seek to promote improved storage technologies in these settings.     

Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty.     

Viagra(ization) or Technoromanticism

Viagra can rather obviously be termed "techno-romantic"--literally it is a technology to make sex possible. But technoromanticism is also a philosophical term referring to the belief that advances in technology serve "truth" "unity" and "wholeness" according to Coyne (1999). Surprisingly many pharmaceutical companies seem to have developed "Viagra" or at least substances that were very similar, but to have ignored and/or rejected commercializing them. This article assumes that the primary activity of research and development in pharmaceutical companies is to produce texts that interpret chemicals as "meaningful." Assumptions of what constitutes (medical) meaning within prevailing technoromanticism have seen R and D as a form of "production" that demands rejection of "consumption." This technoromanticism succeeded in rebuffing the sexual "techno-romanticism" of Viagra in the company studied, but Viagra's enormous commercial success has reversed priorities. R and D's meaning system has proven to be no match for Viagra-ization--the article examines the resulting crisis in meaning systems.     

Simplified Risk Analysis in Agricultural Extension

Attention is given to the major methods of assessing risk in order to make choices. The literature frequently reports studies on mean-variance (E-V) analysis and stochastic dominance rules. Both of these methods are compared, in an agricultural application, with the approach outlined by Hanoch and Levy. The empirical results suggests that Hanoch and Levy's criterion appear to reduce the size of the risk-efficient set, and that the sets of recommendations from the methods under comparison were consistent. The two recommendations generated by Hanoch and Levy's rule were found to be reasonable for this particular decision process.     

Gender equality still on the European agenda—but for how long?

While the momentum has certainly not yet disappeared from the gender equality agenda within Europe, the impact of that agenda remains patchy. Progress within individual member states has been significant but not always steady or cumulative. At the European level more attention has been paid to the gender pay gap but policy initiatives remain weak. The loss of the equal opportunities pillar in the new employment guidelines puts this momentum at risk but the new phase still includes commitments to an integrated strategy of gender mainstreaming and equal opportunities.     

The ups and downs of European gender equality policy

In 2003, equal opportunities policy in the European Union suffered both ups and downs. New opportunities came in the guise of the hotly contested new directive on gender equality outside the field of employment, in the invitation to present the first of an annual report on equality between women and men to the Spring Council, in the consolidation of gender mainstreaming within the second round of the National Action Plans on social inclusion and in the new commitments to ‘substantial reductions by 2010’ in gender gaps in employment, unemployment and pay that were included in the new employment guidelines in 2003. These new guidelines presented, however, a major challenge to gender equality as the new phase of the European Employment Strategy dispensed with the four pillars, and therefore the equal opportunities pillar. Instead gender equality became just one of 10 new guidelines. In December the launch of the Employment Taskforce report appeared to push employment policy back more to a ‘full employment with flexibility’ approach and away from concerns with job quality. The focus was therefore more on the integration of women into employment rather than on closing the equality gap.