The effect of social distancing on the reach of an epidemic in social networks

How does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We present Monte Carlo simulation results of a susceptible–infected–removed with social distancing model. The key feature of the model is that individuals are limited in the number of acquaintances that they can interact with, thereby constraining disease transmission to an infectious subnetwork of the original social network. While increased social distancing typically reduces the spread of an infectious disease, the magnitude varies greatly depending on the topology of the network, indicating the need for policies that are network dependent. Our results also reveal the importance of coordinating policies at the ‘global’ level. In particular, the public health benefits from social distancing to a group (e.g. a country) may be completely undone if that group maintains connections with outside groups that are not following suit.

     

Heterogeneity and netting efficiency under central clearing: A stochastic network analysis

This paper examines the effect of heterogeneity in clearing members’ exposure management practices under central clearing. Our network model specifies the dynamics of prenetted interbank exposures to shape interdependent exposure distributions beyond normality. Employing over-the-counter derivatives market data from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, our simulation results indicate that heterogeneity in bank-to-bank exposure dynamics is systemically desirable, while the entire system benefits more from the central clearing in more homogeneous environments. Policymakers should incentivize individual clearing members to enhance resiliency and stability in counterparty exposure management to maximize netting efficiency under central clearing.     

A bootstrap test for jumps in financial economics

An i.i.d. bootstrap is applied for the ratio test of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006) for jumps in jump diffusion processes. Asymptotic validity is established for the bootstrap test both under the null of no jump and under the alternative of jumps. Finite sample simulation shows that the bootstrap test has more stable size than the ratio test of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006).     

The 7th Asia-Pacific CHRIE Conference

Despite the increase in use of user-generated electronic content as an information source by tourists, its influence in destination image formation is not yet fully understood. This research aimed to explore the communicated destination image held by tourists to Zanzibar Island (Tanzania) by utilizing communications in Lonely Planet. Content analysis of 214 posts using TextSTAT yielded 13 destination attributes. Comparatively, functional attributes were dominant in potential tourists whereas post-travel image perception was dominated by psychological attributes. Those who have visited tended to have a positive image of the island compared with those who are planning to visit the island. The results necessitate the differential use of the functional- and psychological-based information in communicating with tourists at different information-search stages. Studies to capture communications in another language are recommended as well as the employment of methodologies that might reveal hidden images held by tourists.     

Does information risk affect the implied cost of equity capital? An analysis of PIN and adjusted PIN

Using a unique dataset of Korean listed companies for which trade initiators are correctly identifiable, we estimate bias-free PIN (probability of informed trading) that is no longer subject to the trade misspecification problem and test whether it is related to expected returns. Unlike prior studies, we find that bias-free AdjPIN, the adjusted PIN purged of a liquidity component, is positively related to implied cost of equity. Our findings suggest that the errors in PIN variables hamper a proper identification of PIN pricing in prior studies.     

Vertical Specialization and Trade Growth in Northeast Asia

As the global economy has become further integrated, the international production chain has become more sophisticated, with diversified stages of production located in different countries. Economic theorists have argued that the fragmentation of the global production chain is partly attributable to the high growth in international trade over the past several decades. In this study, we examine vertical specialization in China, Japan and Korea, and its contribution to these nations' trade. Using a multilevel model, it is illustrated that vertical specialization has encouraged increases in trade among all three countries. In particular, China's outcome is remarkable considering how recently it became a member of the WTO.     

Tariff and Quota Equivalence in Vertically Related Markets

This paper re‐examines the issue of tariff and quota equivalence by introducing an upstream market into the Hwang and Mai (1988 ) model, and then allowing the two downstream firms to cross‐haul within each other's market. We assume the upstream monopolist can select either a two‐part or a one‐part tariff pricing strategy. It is found that if the upstream firm adopts a two‐part (one‐part) tariff pricing strategy, then the market price of the final good under a tariff will be higher (lower) than that under an equivalent quota; that is, the quota is set at the import level under the tariff regime. This result stands in stark contrast to the prior findings of both Hwang and Mai (1988 ) and Fung (1989 ). Moreover, if the quota rent is set as being equal to the tariff revenue, the social welfare under a tariff will necessarily be lower than that under an equivalent quota.     

Understanding Japanese tourists’ shopping preferences using the Decision Tree Analysis method

This study was designed to assess the factors affecting Japanese tourists’ shopping preference and intention to revisit Korea. The analytical method applied in this study was Decision Tree Analysis, which is under-utilized in tourism studies. A total of 300 questionnaires were collected on the basis of on-site survey method and used for data analysis. Among interesting findings, three groups including ‘respondents who were satisfied, accompanied, and spent US$50–300 on shopping’, ‘respondents who were satisfied, accompanied, and had a shopping expenditure of US$300–1000’ and ‘respondents who were satisfied, accompanied, and had a shopping expenditure of US$1000–5000,’ showed a high level of intention to return to Korea for the purpose of shopping. In addition, two groups ‘those who were interested in shopping in Korea, preferred a shopping mall as a shopping destination, and had an educational level of below high school’ and ‘those who were interested in shopping in Korea, preferred a shopping mall as a shopping destination, and had an educational level of a college graduate or above’ showed a higher level interest in merchandise than in shopping venue attractiveness.