The development of technology foresight: A review

The term “foresight” has long been used to describe readiness to deal with long-term issues (especially on the part of governments). This term “Technology Foresight” took off in the 1990s, as European, and then other, countries sought new policy tools to deal with problems in their science, technology and innovation systems. Large-scale exercises drew in numerous stakeholders as sources of knowledge and influence, and the prominence of these exercises led to “foresight” being used much more widely to describe futures activities of many kinds. While few new tools and techniques have been developed in these exercises, they represent an unprecedented diffusion of forecasting, planning and participatory approaches to long-term issues. Futures approaches are, in consequence, far more officially acceptable and legitimate than in the past.     

SECRET SEARCH

For high-profile positions, should applicant identities be made public within the organization (“open search”) or kept confidential (“secret search”)? We construct a model where an organization seeks to hire, but where candidates' abilities are private information unless it uses open search. Rejected applicants, under open search, suffer disutility. We find the following: Salaries are lower under secret search, the expected ability of applicants decreases as the posted (open search) salary increases, secret search is preferred by organizations where quality of candidate is relatively unimportant, and organizations will, for some parameter values, choose secret search even when open search is more efficient.     

The financial consequences of abolishing a carbon trading system

We investigate the impact of 61 announcements of environmental regulations on the equities listed on the Australian Stock Exchange over the period 2009–2015. In particular, our study focuses on how the stock market reacts to announcements of the abolishment of carbon trading/pricing system. Using event study methodology, we assess whether these announcements create or destroy wealth of equity investors. Furthermore, we estimate changes in systematic risk following the announcements. In general, we find that the abolishment of the carbon pricing system has a positive effect on 18 sectors and the process of removing the carbon pricing system appears to affect the systematic risk of businesses leading to diamond risk structures. We also document negative reactions of polluting sectors to the announcements of green policies.     

Housing Subsidies and Work Incentives in Great Britain

The relationship between housing costs, wages and transfer programmes is complex yet helps determine the incentive to work for individuals in low income or high housing cost households. We estimate a static discrete choice labour supply model that allows for housing benefit programme participation, using samples of married women and unmarried women drawn from Great Britain Family Resources Surveys 1994/5–97/8. We find women are quite responsive to labour supply incentives and that housing benefit income has similar incentive effects to earned income which suggests any 'stigma' is small. Our analysis is complemented by simulating housing benefit and direct rent subsidy reforms.     

The Effectiveness of Incomes Policies, in Australia Bargaining and Inflation Targetting Enterprise

This paper updates earlier estimates that show the existence of a range of equilibrium rates of unemployment in Australia. Within the range of equilibria framework, the paper goes on to test the effectiveness of incomes policies, enterprise bargaining and inflation-target based monetary policy for influencing the rate of inflation in Australia in the period 1965 to 2001. Incomes policies, especially the Accord, and enterprise bargaining are shown to have caused permanent reductions in the rate of inflation. The inflation-target based monetary policy is shown to be associated with, but is not shown to have caused, a reduced impact on inflation of changes in the level of activity.     

Market Familiarity and the Location of South and North MNEs

We use a systematic empirical analysis of the determinants of South‐South (SS) and North‐South (NS) foreign direct investment (FDI) as a canvas to explore how multinational enterprises’ (MNEs) location decisions are shaped by better acquaintance with a foreign market resulting from bilateral ties, experience of international expansion, and knowledge of how to deal with poor governance. We find that these various aspects of market familiarity, which can interact together, are important to explain and differentiate the location behaviors of South MNEs (S‐MNEs) and North MNEs (N‐MNEs) in developing countries.     

Bringing computer power to the consumer market

Firms in m a y industrial sectors are seeking to capitalize on the promise of new information technology to generate new consumer products which can gain substantial markets. Where these are improved versions of familiar products, the marketing task is relatively easy, but many of the new product opportunities involve radically new types of consumer good and/or service. Drawing on studies of efforts to establish such radical innovations, this paper examines the problems that are confornted in attempting to define what sort of product is actually being created and how it may fit into consume life-styles. Though there is considerable discussion of these topics in industrial circles, it appears that until late stages of product development, little serious analysis of social issues is undertaken— if at all. Furthemore, such discussio of the nature and use of products are more intended to mobilize the group of actors who are needed to support the innovation than to feed substantial information about possible user reqquirements into the design process. The design process is much more liable to invorporate ideas derived from analysis of technological trends and the use of products in professional applications, than information derived from social scienc or market research.     

Economic Institutions and the Satisfaction of Human Needs

This article examines John Kenneth Galbraith’s contributions to the field of economic development. Galbraith’s works on economic development were numerous, but they remain largely ignored by his critics and fans alike. He approached the economic development problem with a keen understanding of both the economic and political forces shaping the development debate. Galbraith’s contributions to development economics were always focused on how to get the job done. Doing so required different strategies in an exceedingly diverse community of nations. His work remains relevant. The literature is only now beginning to recognize that this holistic approach to development is a necessary alternative to single-causation theories of world poverty. Galbraith’s approach to development problems is consistent with (and perhaps inspired by) original institutional economics (OIE) in the tradition of Thorstein Veblen and Clarence Ayres.     

An Evaluation of Collaborative Problem Solving for Learning Economics

The use of student evaluations of courses and professors has been examined by Professor Kelley in an effort to learn more about the factors that appear to be associated with “good” or “poor” ratings. Using student evaluations of the Principles of Economics course at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, Kelly investigated two dependent variables: measures of course evaluation and measures of professor evaluation. Eleven independent variables were included in the analysis, and two different regression models were used. The results are tentative, of course, but the study reveals some interesting findings on the impact of teaching assistants, the student's expectation of his course grade, and the professor's propensity to be generous or niggardly in awarding high grades.