Discontinuous innovation capability accumulation in latecomer natural resource-processing firms

Most of the studies that describe the building of innovation capability in emerging and developing economies have focused on the ways in which latecomer firms develop continuously towards advanced capability levels along existing technological trajectories, particularly for the assembled products industries, especially in Asia. A slightly different approach is adopted herein by focusing on pathways of discontinuous capability building of firms in natural resource-processing industries. By drawing on evidence from a variety of case studies taken from 13 forestry, pulp, and paper firms in Brazil in the period 1950-2007, it was found that: (1) in contrast with the majority of case studies reported in the literature, the pathways followed by firms in their accumulation of innovation capability involved a qualitative departure from the established technological trajectory at an early stage in the development of their capability; (2) the pathways of firms along the new technological trajectories were nevertheless characterised by a high degree of variability (from intermediate to world leading innovators) in terms of the levels and speeds of the accumulation of innovation capability; (3) firms that have attained progressively higher levels of innovative performance have more rapidly developed a combination of internal and external research-based arrangements in order to undertake increasingly complex, but firm-centred innovation efforts. This paper sheds some light on some of the discussions that relate to the role of natural resources in the patterns of industrial progress and growth in those countries endowed with particular natural resource-based industries. It also provides a methodological contribution to the study of the long-term innovation strategies that make use of the dynamics of capability building, especially within natural resource-processing industries.     

Dismantling terrorist networks: Evaluating strategic options using agent-based modeling

Dismantling dark networks remains a critical goal for the peace and security of our society. Terrorist networks are the most prominent instantiation of dark networks, and they are alive and well. Attempts to preemptively disrupt these networks and their activities have met with both success and failure. In this paper, we examine the impacts of four common strategies for dismantling terrorist networks. The four strategies are: leader-focused, grassroots, geographic, and random. Each of these strategies has associated pros and cons, and each has different impacts on the structure and capabilities of a terrorist network. Employing a computational experimentation methodology, we simulate a terrorist network and test the effects of each strategy on the resiliency of that network. In addition, we test scenarios in which the terrorist network has (or does not have) information about an impending attack. Our work takes a structural perspective to the challenge of addressing terrorist networks. Specifically, we show how various strategies impact the structure of the network in terms of its resiliency and capacity to carry out future attacks. This paper also provides a valuable overview of how to use agent-based modeling for the study of complex problems in the terrorism, conflict studies, and security study domains.     

Limit to improvement: Myth or reality?: Empirical analysis of historical improvement on three technologies influential in the evolution of civilization

The evolution of civilization appears to have primarily resulted from continuous improvement made possible by technological advances. A group of social evolutionists and economists have identified, among others, energy, transport, as well as information and communication to be the three most influential technologies. On the other hand, a number of eminent scholars have cited several forces, natural, physiological, technological, as well as environmental which can place a limit on on-going improvement.The purpose of this paper is to empirically explore the continuous improvement process as well as the limit placed on these three technologies. Using the framework of both connected and disconnected multiple technology S-curves and X-factor, historical improvement data on these three elements have been analyzed. The results of our analysis indicate that improvement in general has continued without limit mainly due to a series of emerging new technologies. These emerging technologies can be either connected or disconnected from the existing mature technologies. Our preliminary analysis shows that much of the past improvement comes from new technologies that on first serious application appear to be substantially superior from earlier technologies. In addition, enormous continuous improvement, which has accompanied both connected and disconnected new technologies appear to have played the critical role in sustaining the evolution of civilization. The paper discusses a number of policy implications and suggests topics for future research.     

Transforming water infrastructure by linking water management and urban renewal in Rotterdam

Urban water systems have to deal with the impacts of climate change. In response, urban water managers in the city of Rotterdam developed a new water management strategy combining the renewal of water infrastructure with neighborhood revitalization projects. A key factor was the recognition that additional water retention in existing urban areas could only be realized if these projects were linked to urban renewal programs. Moreover, it was acknowledged that through new water retention infrastructure the quality of the social environment of deteriorated neighborhoods could be restored. The results from this historical analysis show that this turn in thinking initiated a successful water policy innovation in Rotterdam, in which the urban water policy is used to solve other urban problems as well by improving the quality of the public amenity. This paper presents key factors that contributed to this process and provides recommendations to further advance the transformation of urban water management infrastructure and the link with spatial planning.     

Reciprocal influences in future thinking between Europe and the USA

La prospective is generally considered to have grown after WWII in developed countries with two main centers, France and the United States of America. In France, the development of prospective does constitute an important point in contemporary history. Stemming from an idea from philosopher Gaston Berger near the end of the 1950s, a spirit arose accompanied by a practice spread in the central administration (government) and in major French corporations. The objective of this article is not to claim any French originality in thinking about the future. Instead, the following pages show how an original approach blending reflection on the future and present action took shape and the relationship that developed involving current practices on the other side of the Atlantic, mainly the USA, with the help of a few intermediaries.     

Scenario building: Uses and abuses

Scenarios hold little interest if they are not pertinent, coherent, and plausible. Although foresight requires a rigorous approach to address complex problems, the tools must also be simple enough to be easily used. Since the mid-1980s, the approach in strategic prospective workshops (a term that reminds us of the participatory nature of the French approach) has proven its effectiveness in meeting these criteria (simple, rigorous and appropriable; i.e., may be appropriated by participants). The authors try to reply to simple and important questions: What is a scenario? How to judge the quality of a scenario? Which strategies for which scenarios? These questions remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular. They could also involve the stakeholders from upstream to downstream, as seen in the agro-food sector. Finally, they argue that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.     

The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider's perspective

This article explores how the term ‘foresight’ originally came to be used in connection with science and technology by the author and SPRU colleagues in 1983. It analyses how the rationale for its use evolved over time, first providing a ‘catchy’ title for a study (‘Project Foresight’), and then a convenient shorthand for the focus of that study, before eventually coming to formally signify a new approach to looking systematically into the future of science and technology, an inclusive and wide-ranging process that differed appreciably from that of traditional ‘technology forecasting’. The paper reflects on the importance of concepts and terminology in the field of science policy research, providing examples of how an inappropriate term or phrase can damn the prospects of the research having an impact on policy, while a more politically astute use of terminology can greatly enhance the probability of making a significant impact. The paper also examines other early uses of the concept of ‘foresight’ in the United States and Canada at about the same time. In addition, it highlights the conceptual similarities between foresight and la prospective, a novel approach developed in France not just for looking into the future but also for shaping or even ‘constructing’ the future of our choice, an ambitious aspiration that it shares with foresight. This case-study on the origins and early evolution of ‘technology foresight’ illustrates the essential importance of terminology in differentiating key concepts in social sciences (where it sometimes gives rise to unfortunate priority disputes), and particularly in the case of policy research.     

Wage inequality in a developing country: decrease in minimum wage or increase in education returns

In this paper we analyze the increase in wage inequality observed in the Uruguayan labour market during the last decade, by studying how the changes in minimum wage and returns to education affected the wage structure. Although in most developed countries a significant proportion of the increase in wage inequality is explained by a fall in the real minimum wage, this is not the case for the Uruguayan labour market. We observe that returns to education increased significantly, which could explain the increase of wage dispersion by its effects on the upper tail of the wage distribution. To derive these conclusions we follow a parametric and nonparametric quantile regression approach.