The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.     

How does a cluster relocate across the border? The case of information technology cluster in the Taiwan-Suzhou region

Since the end of the Cold War, cross-border regions have proliferated at the borders of formal socialist countries, especially in China. Existing accounts of these emergences treat them either at the macro-level, focusing on political initiatives, or at the micro-level, with emphasis on social and economic relations. This paper uses the Taiwan-Suzhou cross-border region as a case study for suggesting a meso-level approach, arguing that as a result of continuous interactions between individual Taiwanese information technology firms and opportunity structures generated by the selective opening of the Chinese border, the formation of cross-border high-tech regions is shaped and determined at the level of the industrial system. The industrial system acts as a platform for coordination and cooperation between local elites and foreign investors and among individual firms within this system. The formation of the cross-border high-tech region thus involves the relocation and institutional re-embedding of industrial systems across the border, which has been accompanied by the systemic building of Taiwanese firms on the one hand, and the institutional innovation of Chinese local states on the other.     

Technology transfer in the IT industry: A Korean perspective

Recently Korean Government announced ambitious IT strategy to establish Korea as one of leaders in world IT market. To implement this strategy, technology transfer from research lab to market should be successfully performed. This study is to identify factors influencing technology transfer and to examine contribution of these factors on success of technology transfer in Korean IT industry. Survey results show that technology project leaders evaluated “Concreteness of Technology” as the most influential factor for technology transfer, followed by “Communication Channels,” “Collaboration among Participants,” “Management Support,” “Government Support,” and “Incentives for Transfer.” Out of 135 technology transfer projects, respondents rated 33 projects as sustaining (28.44%), 38 as promoting (28.15%), 26 as demonstrating (19.26%), 27 in incubating (20.00%), and the remaining 7 in imaging stage (8.15%). This statistics means that 28.15% of technology transfer projects did not reach production stage. Regression analysis identifies that “Communication Channels,” “Management Support,” “Concreteness of Technology” “Sense of Common Purpose,” and “Awareness of Technology Transfer” were statistically significant in explaining success of technology transfer.     

Analysing Texts in Context: Current Practices and New Protocols for Critical Discourse Analysis in Organization Studies

Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) in organization studies would be strengthened by an increased focus on a central CDA tenet that texts should be analysed in context. Context has, for the most part, been afforded a taken‐for‐granted status that is misplaced because of the diverse ways in which it may be defined and applied. These generally unacknowledged differences relate to whether context is treated as space, time, practice, change, or frame. The result is a confusing array of studies claiming some degree of CDA status without core agreement – or acknowledgement of disagreements – about what is meant by context or how it should be linked to texts. To remedy this situation we identify in this Point article nine methodological protocols related to conceptual definitions, data selection, and data analysis which we argue benefit the consistency and rigour with which CDA in organization studies is applied. Use of these protocols may also serve as criteria against which the rigour of CDA research papers may be assessed.     

Global GDP shares in the 21st century — An equilibrium approach

Using a 9-region model of the world economy, we investigate the implications of the diffusion of total factor productivity (TFP) for global GDP shares during the 21st century. The nine regions are: Africa, Asia (excluding China, India and Japan), China, Europe, India, Japan, Latin America, North America and Oceania. According to our projections, TFP catch-up at a plausible rate implies that the share of the high-income regions will more than halve by 2050 and almost halve again in the subsequent 50 years. These projected shares are little affected by variations in demographic outcomes, saving behaviour and international capital flows, but are reduced substantially should TFP catch-up be slower.     

The future of the mobile phone business

One of the fastest growing technologies of our times is that of mobile phones. In this article we use the assumption that the diffusion of mobile technology, as measured by the number of active mobile accounts, follows the well known S-curve of natural growth in competition systems. The accuracy of the logistic fit is tested against actual data for the whole world, Europe, China and the GSM system. Using the produced models predictions concerning the future of mobile business are deliberated.According to these models active mobile accounts around the globe are expected to grow from 1.7 billion in 2004 to approximately 2 billion in 2008, reaching a peak penetration of 29.2%. Growth barriers, apart from the age of the potential user, are also low income and extreme poverty. Europe, early adopter of mobile technology and leader in active mobile accounts against all other regions in the world, has apparently reached a peak with almost every European, apart from the very young or very old, using a mobile phone. The mobile market in China is anticipated to exceed 500 million active accounts and may increase even further depending on the economic and social reform that is currently under way in that part of the world. GSM will most likely remain the leading mobile technology in the future as it is today.The growth process for the world, Europe, and the GSM system is almost completed and during this stage instabilities may occur before the potential emergence of a new wave of growth.     

SPLIT RATINGS,BOND YIELDS,AND UNDERWRITER SPREADS

A split bond rating occurs when Moody's and Standard & Poor give different ratings to the same issue. We examine 1,277 public industrial bond issues, where 221 have split ratings, issued from 1980 through mid-1993. For split-rated industrial bonds, neither rating agency consistently gives higher ratings. Earlier studies find yields for split-rated bonds to be priced as either the higher or the lower of the ratings. We find the yields on split-rated bonds to be an average of the yields on the two ratings. Split ratings for industrial bonds appear to reflect random differences on the part of rating agencies. Our results differ from previous studies because we use a substantially larger sample and include high-yield bonds. As long as a bond has an investment-grade rating, the underwriter fees are found to be essentially the same for all rating categories. Below investment grade, the rating substantially affects the underwriter fee. Thus, split ratings for high-yield bonds have an important effect on the underwriter spread.     

Culture,consumption and choice: towards a conceptual relationship

Abstract Manufacturers and retailers are continually extending the geographical scope of their activities, and the degree of acceptance by local consumer cultures is integral to the success or failure of their operations. It is, therefore, important that cultural influences on consumption behaviour are fully conceptualized and understood. Central to this understanding is a need to address how consumers prioritize their own principles and set them against other criteria, bringing these to bear in the process of choosing particular products. This paper attempts to address the paucity of research in this respect by attempting to integrate areas of literature on culture, consumption and product choice. These relationships are explored through a simple conceptual framework, which is then used to discuss the influence of culture on one particular type of behaviour —‘ethical consumption’— the degree to which consumers prioritize their own ethical concerns when making product choices. The paper concludes by highlighting the general implications of the framework for research.