Convergence among EU regions, 1990–2001

This article focuses on convergence in terms of output per working age person across regions in the European Union for the period 1990–2001. Controlling for the quality of national institutions, the authors investigate whether the status of “objective 1” region improves the speed of convergence as compared to what would be expected given the regions' initial conditions. They find evidence of conditional convergence among EU regions, with the quality of national institutions having a positive impact, but no evidence of a correlation between eligibility for objective 1 and faster convergence.     

Expectation formation: Criteria and an assessment

Summary This paper presents three requirements which hypotheses on expectation formation should meet. These three criteria refer to the data used, to the learning process and to the identification of structural parameters. In the second part of the paper these criteria are used for assessing various expectation hypotheses and estimation procedures of models incorporating expectational variables. The analysis reveals that only weak forms of the rational expectation hypothesis and some proxy variable methods with time-varying parameters meet all three criteria.This research forms part of the author's dissertation and of the project Exchange-rate and Monetary Policy in International Dependence. Preliminary versions of this paper were presented at seminars at the University of Amsterdam and the University of Groningen and at the European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Copenhagen, August 24–28, 1987. Comments and suggestions by seminar participants, especially Willem H. Buiter, by members of the above-mentioned project and by an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Politics as an environmental factor in population development: reviewing the South African situation

The political factors that affect the development of a successful population policy in South Africa are examined. "It is concluded that despite the important role of socioeconomic development, the success of the population development programme ultimately depends upon (a) the actual distribution of political power to all communities; (b) the degree of legitimacy enjoyed by the government among the broader population; and (c) a general political consensus regarding the urgency for curbing the population growth rate."     

Fiscal stabilisation and monetary integration in Europe: A short-run analysis

Summary An adverse supply shock hits a two-country Mundell-Fleming world and causes unemployment and a higher cost of living. The optimal budgetary policies under non-cooperative and under international policy coordination are then contrasted under a regime of floating exchange rates, a regime of managed exchange rates with hegemony (such as the EMS), and a symmetric regime of fixed exchange rates (such as the EMU). The welfare loss depends on unemployment, real wage income and budgetary imbalance. Attention is also paid to the effects of indexation of wages on the cost of living and of interactions between Europe and the US. The results shed some light on the short-run stabilisation aspects of the proposals of the Delors Committee for economic and monetary union in Europe.This paper was presented at the conference on European Economic Integration: Towards 1992, organised by the NBER and the CEPR, August 3-4 1989, Cambridge, MA. The author is grateful for the useful comments of the participants and thanks the managing editor and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. This paper was written as part of a SPES project on Macroeconomic Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe, supported by grants from the Commission of European Communities (no. 0016-NL (A)), whose help is gratefully acknowledged. I also wish to acknowledge financial support from the CEPR research programme in International Macroeconomics, supported by grants from the Ford Foundation (no. 890-0404) and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (no. 88-4-23).     

Public pensions and political decision-making

Summary A simple decision-making model regarding the financing method and benefit level of a public old age pension is developed. In line with existing literature, the decision-making process is supposed to be in the form of direct democracy, initially, In order to apply the model to a situation of a representative democracy, to wit the Netherlands, five social groups are considered which may be assumed to influence the decisions taken by the government organization. The empirical results show unanimous support for the PAYG system actually chosen at the start of the pension scheme in 1956. The results are highly suggestive, furthermore, as regards the fact that the financing method of the pension scheme has recently become a parliamentary issue. If one endorses the view that long-term considerations should be given a more preeminent place in this context, which would demand a change of the decision-making structure in favour of the young, then the political support for such a change would seem to be present at the moment.The research reported in this paper is part of the project Economic Policy and Conflicts of Interests of the University of Amsterdam (PEPCI paper 85.03). Helpful comments by Professor P. Hennipman and by participants in the workshop on The Origin and Future of Social Security Schemes at the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin, December 13–14, 1984, in particular by Professor Charles Blankart, are gratefully acknowledged.     

System Dynamics Modeling of Chinese Urban Housing Markets for Pedagogical and Policy Analysis Purposes

This paper reports on the current state of a project to develop a system dynamics (SD) model for urban housing markets in China, aimed at facilitating policy analysis and supporting practical educational tools that might reach large numbers of potential entrepreneurs in China. Although numerous academic papers have applied SD models to real estate markets over the past generation, the technique remains relatively unknown and little used both in the academic economics literature and, more to the point, among practitioners and educators in the real estate community. Yet SD has the potential to address key needs among these constituencies, and extend and complement upon traditional economic methods. SD models are focused on modeling market transitions toward long-run equilibria, facilitating the study of the details of causality and the dynamic path of the market and features that are prominent in the history of housing markets in emerging markets. Different from intensive data-driven economic models, SD models are structural-based operational models that can more easily accommodate the actual non-market features and unique institutional components of these emerging real estate markets, where long-range historical data are not readily available. SD can provide intuitive and transparent model structures that should be able to improve pedagogy for educating large numbers of potential real estate entrepreneurs particularly in emerging market countries. For demonstration, in the present paper we choose to focus on the China-specific features of ‘speculative demand’ and ‘land financing scheme’, and use the newly developed SD model to explore the effects of land supply, “command-and-control” versus “market-driven” policies for housing in China. It is important to note, however, that while we chose China for the purposes of our study, the same technique can be applied to any emerging real estate market. Moreover, our research here can be seen as a stepping stone: Before a generalized SD model for emerging markets can be developed, it is both reasonable and appropriate to construct a model that is constrained to a manageable subset of the overall market space.     

Online banking services: a meta-analytic review and assessment of the impact of antecedents and consequents on satisfaction

This paper provides a meta-analysis of the generalizations in the relationships between the antecedents and consequents of satisfaction with online banking services. In total, 118 observations were analysed, with a sample of 49,607 respondents in 39 published articles from studies indexed in ten databases (Jstor, Emerald, PsycINFO, Taylor & Francis, Elsevier Science Direct, Scopus, ProQuest, SciELO, Google Scholar and EBSCO). Specifically, for the data analysis, we used the correlation coefficient r (plus χ², f test, t test, z test and β values). The results showed that constructs related to uncertainty, as evoked by online devices, system performance, quality of device content and online banking device structures, are significant and positive antecedents of consumer satisfaction. We also found that satisfaction with online banking services promotes trust and loyalty. Finally, we also detected that the relationship between reliability, satisfaction and service quality is stronger among Western banking consumers.     

Optimal liquidation under stochastic liquidity

We solve explicitly a two-dimensional singular control problem of finite fuel type for an infinite time horizon. The problem stems from the optimal liquidation of an asset position in a financial market with multiplicative and transient price impact. Liquidity is stochastic in that the volume effect process, which determines the intertemporal resilience of the market in the spirit of Predoiu et al. (SIAM J. Financ. Math. 2:183–212, 2011), is taken to be stochastic, being driven by its own random noise. The optimal control is obtained as the local time of a diffusion process reflected at a non-constant free boundary. To solve the HJB variational inequality and prove optimality, we need a combination of probabilistic arguments and calculus of variations methods, involving Laplace transforms of inverse local times for diffusions reflected at elastic boundaries.     

Non-implementability of Arrow–Debreu equilibria by continuous trading under volatility uncertainty

In diffusion models, a few suitably chosen financial securities allow to complete the market. As a consequence, the efficient allocations of static Arrow–Debreu equilibria can be attained in Radner equilibria by dynamic trading. We show that this celebrated result generically fails if there is Knightian uncertainty about volatility. A Radner equilibrium with the same efficient allocation as in an Arrow–Debreu equilibrium exists if and only if the discounted net trades of the equilibrium allocation display no ambiguity in the mean. This property is violated generically in endowments, and thus Arrow–Debreu equilibrium allocations are generically unattainable by dynamically trading a few long-lived assets.