Oil at 150$—The tipping point for changing course of civilizations?

The present work offers a systemic perspective on post conventional oil futures. It is based on the model that accounts for a causal relationship between a dominant worldview in a society and the societal choice of technology and institutions, which then constrain and direct dynamics at the level of production and consumption. The Business as usual scenario provides an idea as where the world might be heading under the assumption of a myopic and unchanging worldview. The Western group leads the process of change scenario describes an evolutionary cascade of change in the Western group, which starts with a substantial change in a dominant worldview. Note that this substantial change is not a revolution – although its institutional solutions appear very challenging today, they do not necessarily stand out of the capitalist democracy. Finally, the third scenario is about global governance – a future that would leave least unknowns and least threats to Western civilization.     

Buy-outs in Hungary,Poland and Russia: governance and finance issues1

The governments of Hungary, Poland and Russia have used buy-outs as an important privatization strategy which can be viewed as forming a continuum from straightforward sales where management and employees generally achieve significant ownership, as in Hungary, via intermediate approaches as in Poland where both payment and free distribution of shares are involved, to the Russian case where state-owned enterprises were effectively “given away” through a voucher privatization scheme. This paper, first, presents preliminary evidence on the extent and nature of post-privatization restructuring in buy-outs in these three countries, which highlights the transitory nature of this form of organization. Second, in the light of these findings, the paper analyses the possibilities and difficulties associated with enhancing corporate governance and finance.     

Crisis and Pension System Design in the EU: International Spillover Effects Via Factor Mobility and Trade

Many European Union states have adjusted pension benefits or reformed the pension system in reaction to the recent economic crisis, while other member states have postponed this type of adjustments. In this paper we study to what extent countries that responded quickly to the crisis are harmed by the lingering in other member states via international spillover effects caused by factor mobility and trade. We show that this depends crucially on the degree of labour mobility in the short run. In fact, countries with more flexible pensions can benefit from the inflexibility of pensions in other countries if they can temporarily limit immigration.     

On The Fundamental Theorem Of Asset Pricing: Random Constraints And Bang-Bang No-Arbitrage Criteria

The paper generalizes and refines the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing of Dalang, Morton, and Willinger (1990) in the following two respects: (a) the result is extended to a model with general portfolio constraints, and (b) versions of the no-arbitrage criterion based on the bang-bang principle in control theory are developed.     

Pure and randomized equilibria in the stochastic von Neumann–Gale model

The paper examines the problem of the existence of equilibrium for the stochastic analogue of the von Neumann–Gale model of economic growth. The mathematical framework of the model is a theory of set-valued random dynamical systems defined by positive stochastic operators with certain properties of convexity and homogeneity. Existence theorems for equilibria in such systems may be regarded as generalizations of the Perron–Frobenius theorem on eigenvalues and eigenvectors of positive matrices. The known results of this kind are obtained under rather restrictive assumptions. We show that these assumptions can be substantially relaxed if one allows for randomization. The main result of the paper is an existence theorem for randomized equilibria. Some special cases (models defined by positive matrices) are considered in which the existence of pure equilibria can be established.     

Enterprise Adjustment

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Forecasting the forecasts of others: Implications for asset pricing

We study the properties of rational expectation equilibria (REE) in dynamic asset pricing models with heterogeneously informed agents. We show that under mild conditions the state space of such models in REE can be infinite dimensional. This result indicates that the domain of analytically tractable dynamic models with asymmetric information is severely restricted. We also demonstrate that even though the serial correlation of returns is predominantly determined by the dynamics of stochastic equity supply, under certain circumstances asymmetric information can generate positive autocorrelation of returns.     

Agents, Stakeholders and Corporate Governance in Russian Firms

This paper considers some developments within Russian privatized industrial firms 1992–94 through the lens of Stakeholder-Agency Theory (SAT). Although it has its own shortcomings and weaknesses, SAT, unlike the traditional financial version of Agency Theory, at least contemplates the possibility of a transitional period during which enterprise governance structures can evolve. It is by now widely recognised that in the middle of deep economic crisis, the Russian economy is too volatile for longitudinal studies of formally structured samples of firms over a period of time. In any case, SAT is at a stage of development that has not yet yielded detailed predictions for scientific testing. Yet surveys of recently privatized firms in Russia do provide empirical data away from the origins of SAT, and it is argued that this fresh data suggests new research propositions that can hopefully lead to more theoretical refinement and ultimately testing. At the very least, SAT can be used as a heuristic device, capable of providing a way of looking at complex Russian developments in a structured way. A process of Russian privatization through management–employee buy-outs involving giveaway distributions of shares has secured the compliance of the two main groups of enterprise stakeholders who could have prevented the withdrawal of the State from the governance of industrial enterprises, but has not yet produced a form of corporate governance structure that is likely to survive in the long term without State protection. In the longer term, international competitiveness can only be secured in Russia through investment in new products and processes, and the inadequacies of managers and other employees as sources of investable funds mean that incumbents must generate a more welcoming climate for outside investors. Even after such a short period since privatization and in the middle of a deep economic crisis, some enterprises are already favouring more efficient governance structures in a way consistent with SAT.